Isotopic Composition of Glacier Ice and Meltwater in the Arid Parts of the Altai Mountains (Central Asia)

The objective of this study is to reveal the isotopic composition of ice and meltwater in glaciated regions of South-Eastern Altai. The paper depicts differences between the isotopic composition of glacier ice from several types of glaciers and from various locations. Detected differences between the isotopic composition of glacier ice in diversified parts of the study region are related to local climate patterns. Isotopic composition of meltwater and isotopic separation for glacier rivers runoff showed that in the Tavan-Bogd massif, seasonal snow participates more in the formation of glacier runoff due to better conditions for snow accumulation on the surface of glaciers. In other research areas pure glacier meltwater prevails in runoff.

Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan

Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia.

Differences in the transient responses of individual glaciers: a case study of the Cascade Mountains of Washington State, USA

Mountain glaciers have response times that govern retreat due to anthropogenic climate change. We use geometric attributes to estimate individual response times for 383 glaciers in the Cascade mountain range of Washington State, USA. Approximately 90% of estimated response times are between 10 and 60 years, with many large glaciers on the short end of this distribution. A simple model of glacier dynamics shows that this range of response times entails consequential differences in recent and ongoing glacier changes: glaciers with decadal response times have nearly kept pace with anthropogenic warming, but those with multi-decadal response times are far from equilibrium, and their additional committed retreat stands well beyond natural variability. These differences have implications for changes in glacier runoff. A simple calculation highlights that transient peaks in area-integrated melt, either at the onset of forcing or due to variations in forcing, depend on the glacier's response time and degree of disequilibrium. We conclude that differences in individual response times should be considered when assessing the state of a population of glaciers and modeling their future response. These differences in response can arise simply from a range of different glacier geometries, and the same basic principles can be expected in other regions as well.

General overestimation of ERA5 precipitation in flow simulations for High Mountain Asia basins

Precipitation is one of the most important input to hydrological models, although obtaining sufficient precipitation observations and accurate precipitation estimates in High Mountain Asia (HMA) is challenging. ERA5 precipitation is the latest generation of reanalysis dataset that is attracting huge attention from various fields but it has not been evaluated in hydrological simulations in HMA. To remedy this gap, we first statistically evaluated ERA5 precipitation with observations from 584 gauges in HMA, and then investigated its potential in hydrological simulation in 11 HMA basins using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. The ERA5 precipitation generally captures the seasonal variations of gauge observations, and the broad spatial distributions of precipitation in both magnitude and trends in HMA. The ERA5 exhibits a reasonable flow simulation (RB of 5%–10%) at the Besham hydrological station of the UI basin when the contribution from glacier runoff is added to the simulated total runoff. But it overestimates the observations in other HMA basins by 33%–106% without considering glacier runoff, mostly due to the overestimates in the ERA5 precipitation inputs. Therefore, a bias correction is definitely needed before ERA5 precipitation is used for hydrological simulations in HMA basins.

Meltdown

Climate change is happening all around us, and one of the telltale signs is melting glaciers. We hear about it almost daily, pieces of ice the size of continents breaking off of Antarctica or the polar arctic ice breaking up and disappearing more and more quickly opening up navigational routes once unavailable due to thick winter ice cover. Will melting ice and glaciers so far away change our lives? Meltdown takes us deep into the cryosphere, the Earth’s frozen environment and picks apart why glacier melt caused by climate change will alter (and already is altering) the way we live around the world. From rising seas that will destroy property and flood millions of acres of coastal lands, displacing hundreds of millions of people, to rising global temperatures due to reflectivity changes of the Earth because of decreased white glacier surface area, to colossal water supply changes from glacier runoff reduction, to deadly glacier tsunamis caused by the structural weakening of ice on high mountaintops that will take out entire communities living in glacier runoff basins, to escaping methane gas from thawing frozen permafrost grounds, and changing ocean temperatures that affect jet streams and ocean water currents around the planet, glacier melt is altering our global ecosystems in ways that will drastically change our everyday lives. Meltdown takes us into the little-known periglacial environment, a world of invisible subterranean glaciers in our coldest mountain ranges that will survive the initial impacts of climate change but that are also ultimately at risk due to a warming climate. By examining the dynamics of melting glaciers, Meltdown helps us grasp the impacts of a massive geological era shift occurring right before our eyes.

The Spatiotemporal Regime of Glacier Runoff in Oases Indicates the Potential Climatic Risk in Dryland Areas of China

Glaciers continuously affected by climate change are of great concern; their supply and runoff variation tendency under the pressure of increasing populations, especially in dryland areas, should be studied. Due to the difficulty of observing glacier runoff, little attention has been given to establishing high-resolution and long-term series datasets established for glacial runoff. Using the latest dataset using digital elevation models (DEMs) to obtain regional individual glacier mass balance, simulating the spatiotemporal regime of glacier runoff in oases that support almost the entire income in the dryland areas of China (DAC) could be possible. The simulations quantitatively assess glacier runoff, including meltwater runoff and delayed runoff, in each basin of the DAC at a spatial resolution of 100 m from 1961 to 2015, classify glaciers according to the potential climatic risks based on the prediction results. The total glacier runoff in the DAC is (98.52 ± 67.37) × 108 m3, in which the meltwater runoff is (63.43 ± 42.17) × 108 m3, accounting for 64.38 %. Most basins had continuously increasing tendencies of different magnitudes from 1961 to 2015, except for the Shiyang River basin, which reached its peak in approximately 2000. Glacier runoff nurtured nearly 143,939.24 km2 of oasis agricultural areas (OAA) until 2015, while 19 regions with a total population of 14 million were built alongside the oases, where glacier runoff occupies an important place in agricultural, industrial and municipal water consumption. Therefore, providing a long time series of glacier runoff for different river basins is of great significance to the sustainable development of the oasis economy in the arid zones.

Regional-scale phytoplankton dynamics and their association with glacier meltwater runoff in Svalbard

Arctic amplification of global warming has accelerated mass loss of Arctic land ice over the past decades and lead to increased freshwater discharge into glacier fjords and adjacent seas. Glacier freshwater discharge is typically associated with high sediment loads which limits the euphotic depth, but may also provide surface waters with essential nutrients, thus having counter-acting effects on marine productivity. In-situ observations from a few measured fjords across the Arctic indicate that glacier fjords dominated by marine-terminating glaciers are typically more productive than those with only land-terminating glaciers. Here we combine chlorophyll a from satellite ocean colour, an indicator of phytoplankton biomass, with glacier meltwater runoff from climatic mass-balance modelling to establish a statistical model of summertime-phytoplankton dynamics in Svalbard (mid-June to September). Statistical analysis reveals positive spatiotemporal association of chlorophyll a with glacier runoff for 7 out of 14 primary hydrological regions. These regions consist predominantly of the major fjord systems of Svalbard. The adjacent land areas are characterized by a wide range of total glacier coverage (35.5 % to 81.2 %) and fraction of marine-terminating glacier area (40.2 % to 87.4 %). We find that an increase in specific glacier-runoff rate of 10 mm water equivalent per 8-day timeperiod raises summertime chlorophyll a concentrations by 5.2 % to 20.0 %, depending on region. During the annual peak discharge we estimate that glacier runoff contributes to 13.1 % to 50.2 % increase in chlorophyll a compared to situations with no runoff. This suggest that glacier runoff is an important factor sustaining summertime phytoplankton production in Svalbard fjords, in line with findings from several fjords in Greenland. In contrast, for regions bordering open coasts, and beyond 10 km distance from the shore, we do not find significant association of chlorophyll a with runoff. In these regions, physical ocean and sea ice variables control chlorophyll a, pointing at the importance of a late sea ice breakup in northern Svalbard, as well as the advection of Atlantic water masses along the West Spitsbergen Current for summertime phytoplankton dynamics. Our method allows for investigation and monitoring of glacier-runoff effects on primary production throughout the summer season and is applicable on a Pan-Arctic scale, thus complementing valuable but scarce in-situ measurements in both space and time.

Long-term legacy of delayed climate mitigation in global glacier response

<p>Mountain glaciers have a delayed response to climate change and are expected to continue to melt long after greenhouse gas emissions have stopped, with consequences both for sea-level rise and water resources. In this contribution, we use the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to compute global glacier volume and runoff changes until the year 2300 under a suite of stylized greenhouse gas emission characterized by (i) the year at which anthropogenic emissions culminate, (ii) their reduction rates after peak emissions and (iii) whether they lead to a long-term global temperature stabilization or decline. We show that even under scenarios that achieve the Paris Agreement goal of holding global-mean temperature below 2 °C, glacier contribution to sea-level rise will continue well beyond 2100. Because of this delayed response, the year of peak emissions (i.e. the timing of mitigation action) has a stronger influence on mit-term global glacier change than other emission scenario characteristics, while long-term change is dependent on all factors. We also discuss the impact of early climate mitigation on regional glacier change and the consequences for glacier runoff, both short-term (where some basins are expected to experience an increase of glacier runoff) and long-term (where all regions are expecting a net-zero or even negative glacier contribution to total runoff), underlining the importance of mountain glaciers for regional water availability at all timescales.</p>