scholarly journals Entendendo as Características Associadas à Precipitação Para uma Região do Nordeste Paraense: Uma Análise do Comportamento, Tendência, Eventos Extremos e Tempo de Retorno para o período de 1973-2010

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3173
Author(s):  
Gabriel Italo Novaes da Silva ◽  
Pedro José Hermínio ◽  
Antonio Gebson Pinheiro ◽  
Alexandre Maniçoba Da Rosa Ferraz Jardim ◽  
Renan Matheus Cordeiro Leite ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Atmospheric Phenomena

Este trabalho utilizou uma série de dados de precipitação referente ao período de 1973 à 2010 para o município de Castanhal-PA com a finalidade de investigar: 1) os padrões de precipitação; 2) as mudanças de tendência; 3) a ocorrência dos eventos de déficit e excesso de água pelo uso do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) e suas relações com fenômenos atmosféricos como El Niño e La Niña; 4) a associação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência das chuvas e o tempo de retorno (TR). Para tanto, utilizaram-se dados de chuva obtidos em uma estação pluviométrica da Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). Os dados foram analisados por períodos, tendo sido considerados os intervalos: mensais, trimestrais, anuais ou decadais realizando estatística descritiva, para entendimento da variação sazonal, valores médios, análise da tendência por meio do teste não paramétrico de Mann-Kendall e da ocorrência de valores extremos associados à probabilidade de ocorrência e tempo de retorno. Nossos resultados demonstraram que: a média anual de precipitação para o período estudado foi de 2573,15mm; o intervalo de 2003-2010 foi aquele de menor variação nos valores de precipitação anual. Não foram observadas tendências nos valores de precipitação durante o período analisado. O SPI-1 mostrou boa adequabilidade a ocorrência dos valores extremos de precipitação no local em alguns casos associado aos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña. O maior (4.709,4 mm) e menor (1.379,6 mm) volume de chuva foram observados nos anos de 1994 e 1981, respectivamente, com probabilidade de ocorrência de 3% e TR = 39 anos.    Understanding the Characteristics Associated with Precipitation for a Northeastern Region of Pará: An Analysis of Behavior, Tendency, Extreme Events and Time of Return for the 1973-2010 period A B S T R A C TThis work used a series of precipitation data for the period 1973 to 2010 for the municipality of Castanhal-PA in order to investigate: 1) precipitation patterns; 2) changes in trend; 3) the occurrence of deficit and excess water events using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its relationship with atmospheric phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña; 4) the association between the probability of rain occurrence and the return time (TR). For this purpose, rainfall data obtained from a rainfall station of the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) were used. Data were analyzed by periods, considering the intervals: monthly, quarterly, annual or decadal performing descriptive statistics, to understand seasonal variation, mean values, trend analysis using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the occurrence of extreme values associated with the probability of occurrence and turnaround time. Our results showed that: the mean annual rainfall for the period studied was 2573.15mm; the 2003-2010 interval was the one with the smallest variation in annual precipitation values. There were no trends in precipitation values during the analyzed period. SPI-1 showed good suitability for the occurrence of extreme precipitation values at the site in some cases associated with the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. The highest (4,709.4 mm) and lowest (1,379.6 mm) volume of rainfall were observed in 1994 and 1981, respectively, with a probability of occurrence of 3% and TR = 39 years.Keywords: Rainfall; Droughts; Floods; Atmospheric phenomena.

scholarly journals Effect of Various Types of ENSO Events on Moisture Conditions in the Humid and Subhumid Tropics

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1354
Author(s):  
Daria Gushchina ◽  
Irina Zheleznova ◽  
Alexander Osipov ◽  
Alexander Olchev
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Seasonal Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Surface Moisture ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Subhumid Tropics ◽  
Moisture Conditions

Moisture anomaly conditions within humid and subhumid tropics that are associated with different types of El Niño and La Niña phenomena are described and analyzed with a focus on their spatial distribution and seasonal variability. Five dryness indices (Keetch–Byram Drought Index, Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and Percent of Normal Precipitation) were derived from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5) reanalysis and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) datasets for the period from 1979 to 2019. Cross-correlation analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and selected dryness indices. To describe the seasonal variability of the ENSO–surface moisture relationships, the composite maps of dryness indices in different seasons were analyzed. The results showed a significant heterogeneity of the ENSO-induced moisture anomaly conditions both within and across various geographical regions. Four main areas in humid and subhumid tropics with the maximum effects of El Niño/La Niña events on the surface moisture conditions were found: Southeast Asia and Australia, Eastern and South Africa, Northeastern and Eastern South America, and Central America. It was shown that the effects of La Niña were usually opposite to those of El Niño, while the responses to the two types of El Niño differed mostly in the moisture anomaly intensity and its spatial patterns.

scholarly journals INFLUÊNCIA DO ENOS NAS CHUVAS ANUAIS DA REGIÃO AMAZÔNICA DO MATO GROSSO

Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Adilson Pacheco Souza ◽  
Carla Aparecida Ascoli ◽  
Eduardo Morgan Uliana ◽  
Frederico Terra de Almeida ◽  
Bruno Henrique Casavecchia
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
River Region

A quantidade e as distribuições espaciais e temporais das chuvas determinam o tipo de vegetação natural, potencialidades de exploração agropecuária e disponibilidade de recursos hídricos. Todavia, as chuvas estão diretamente relacionadas com a circulação geral da atmosfera (CGA) e com as mudanças nos seus comportamentos. Em escala global, a maior influência é decorrente do modo de variabilidade climático denominado de El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS) e suas diferentes fases/intensidades (El Niño – EN; La Niña - LN), que determinam as anomalias de chuva em diversas regiões. Diante da grande aptidão agropecuária do estado de Mato Grosso (MT), objetivou-se avaliar as influências do EN e LN para as bacias hidrográficas dos Rios Juruena, Teles Pires e Xingu, situados na região Amazônica. As regiões das nascentes (Alto) das três bacias apresentam similaridade nos totais anuais de chuva. As diferentes intensidades de EN e LN influenciaram de forma significativa nos índices de chuva anual na bacia do Rio Teles Pires. EN-Forte provoca reduções nos totais anuais de chuvas nas regiões baixas (foz) das três bacias hidrográficas. LN-Forte aumentou as chuvas anuais independentemente da região do rio Teles Pires. LN-moderado reduz os totais anuais de chuva independentemente da bacia hidrográfica.Palavra-chave: bacias hidrográficas, variabilidade climática, distribuição espacial. ENOS INFLUENCE IN THE ANNUAL RAINS OF THE REGION AMAZON OF MATO GROSSO STATE ABSTRACT:The amount and spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall determine the type of natural vegetation, agricultural exploration potential and availability of water resources. However, the rainfall are directly dependents to the general circulation of the atmosphere and changes in your behavior. On a global scale, the major influences are the result of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its different phases/intensities (El Niño - EN; La Niña - LN), which determine the precipitation anomalies in several regions. Given the large agricultural faculty of Mato Grosso State, Brazil, aimed to evaluate the influence of EN and LN phenomena for the watershed of the rivers Juruena, Teles Pires and Xingu, located in the Amazon region. The regions of the sources of river (High) of the three watershed have similarity in total annual rainfall. The different intensities of EN and LN cause greater influence in the rates of annual rainfall in the Teles Pires Watershed. EN-Intensive causes reductions in total annual rainfall in the lowlands (mouth rivers) of the three watersheds. LN-Intensive provides increase in annual rainfall regardless of the Teles Pires River region. LN-moderate reduces the total annual rainfall regardless of the watershed.Keywords: watersheds, climatic variability, spatial distribution. DOI:

scholarly journals Volcanic and ENSO effects in China in simulations and reconstructions: Tambora eruption 1815

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 2061-2088 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Zhang ◽  
R. Blender ◽  
K. Fraedrich
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The North ◽  
La Nina ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. The co-operative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) on the climate in China are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800–2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The experiment includes two ensembles with weak (5 members) and strong (3 members) total solar irradiance variability. In the absence of El Niño and La Niña events, volcanoes, which are the dominant forcing in both ensembles, cause a dramatic cooling in West China (−2 °C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The recovery times for the volcano induced cooling vary globally between one and 12 yr; in China these values are mostly within 1–4 yr, but reach 10 yr in the Northeast. Without volcanoes, after El Niño events the summer precipitation is reduced in the North, while South China becomes wetter (indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, for summers, JJA); La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling in most regions of China, while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to −2.5 °C). The simulated impact of the eruption of the Tambora in 1815, which caused the "year without summer" 1816 in Europe and North America and coldness and famines for several years in the Chinese province Yunnan, depends crucially on the ENSO state of the coupled model. A comparison with reconstructed El Niño events shows a moderate cool climate with wet (in the South) and extreme dry anomalies (in the North) persisting for several years.

ANALISIS SEBARAN CURAH HUJAN WILAYAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE SPI DAN HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN INDIKATOR IKLIM DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 241
Author(s):  
Juwita Sari
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

<p>Sebaran curah hujan di wilayah provinsi Sumatera Barat menunjukkan distribusi yang tidak seragam di berbagai wilayah Sumatera Barat yang berdampak pada keberlangsungan kehidupan masyarakatnya termasuk menyangkut kebencanaan yang sering terjadi di wilayah Sumatera Barat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menunjukkan variasi spasial curah hujan dengan metode SPI dan kaitannya dengan beberapa indikator iklim yakni indeks nino3.4, DMI, SST perairan barat Sumatera dan Angin permukaan. Distribusi curah hujan melalui metode SPI penting untuk diketahui karena berhubungan dengan pengelolaan sumberdaya air, pengurangan risiko bencana, dan menunjang pembangunan daerah sumatera Barat. Analisis ini telah didukung dengan perkembangan teknologi Sistem Informasi Geografis (SIG) termasuk analisis spasial curah hujan metode SPI dengan teknik interpolasi berupa IDW. Data utama yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data hujan tiga tahun yang mewakili tiga kondisi umum pengaruh El Nino, La Nina, dan konsidi normal di wilayah Sumatera Barat yang diperoleh dari Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Umumnya rata-rata korelasi pada setiap indikator iklim untuk tujuh titik pengamatan di Sumatera Barat menunjukkan nilai dari 0,4-0,8 dengan dominasi korelasi tertinggi berada pada kondisi pengaruh La Nina atau kondisi basah.</p><p class="keywords" align="left"><strong>Kata Kunci</strong> : Curah Hujan, Sumatera Barat, Sistem Informasi Geografis (SIG), Korelasi, <em>Standardized Precipitation Index</em> (SPI)</p>

scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF ENSO ON WET AND DRY SPELL FREQUENCY FOR RAINFED CROPPING PERIOD OVER TAMIL NADU

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 63-65
Author(s):  
M. Vengateswari ◽  
V. Geethalakshmi ◽  
K. Bhuvaneswari ◽  
S. Panneerselvam
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Dry Spell

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Several factors are responsible for recent climatic anomalies includes seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall in the region in which regional and global sea surface temperature (SST) changes is the most significant factor. It is well recognized that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability on seasonal to inter-annual scales and its impacts are felt worldwide. Seasonal to inter-annual rainfall fluctuations strongly affect the success of agriculture and the abundance of water resources. Daily rainfall data at district scale was obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for a period of 43 years (1971&amp;ndash;2013) was categorized based on the ENSO episodes and the analysis was performed for the rainfed cropping period (RCP, September&amp;ndash;December). A week (7 days) with the cumulative rainfall amount of 50&amp;thinsp;mm was considered as one wet spell. Non rainy days observed continuously for a decade (10 days) that period was considered to be one dry spell. Results revealed that El Niño conditions positively influenced the rainfall. Compared to neutral years, La Niña years received less rainfall as it showed the negative deviation in most of districts of Tamil Nadu. More wet spell and lesser dry spell weeks was observed under El Niño condition while the lesser wet spell and more dry spell was observed under La Niña conditions. Higher amount of rainfall during El Niño led to more number of wet spells under El Niño event.</p>

Pengaruh Perubahan Curah Hujan terhadap Produktivitas Padi Sawah di Kalimantan Barat

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-246
Author(s):  
Fanni Aditya ◽  
Evi Gusmayanti ◽  
Jajat Sudrajat
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
La Nina

Variabilitas curah hujan sangat erat kaitannya dengan perubahan iklim di suatu wilayah dan analisisnya sangat berguna dalam mengukur ketersediaan air untuk pertanian khususnya padi sawah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis variabilitas curah hujan dan hubungan curah hujan tahunan terhadap produktivitas padi di Kalimantan Barat.  Lokasi penelitian difokuskan di wilayah Kabupaten Mempawah dan Kubu Raya dengan menggunakan data yang tersedia pada tahun 2000-2019. Analisis datanya menggunakan persamaan variabilitas dan dilanjutkan dengan analisis korelasi dan komposit. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabilitas curah hujan tahunan di Mempawah dan Kubu Raya termasuk dalam kategori rendah. Nilai variabilitas bulanan menunjukkan rentang yang bervariasi dari rendah hingga ekstrem di setiap lokasi. El Nino memiliki dampak negatif yang kuat terhadap curah hujan pada periode Juni-Juli-Agustus (JJA) dan September-Oktober-November (SON), sedangkanLa Nina memiliki dampak positif yang kuat terhadap curah hujan pada periode Juni-Juli-Agustus. Pada periode Desember-Januari-Februari (DJF) dan Maret-April-Mei (MAM), El Nino (La Nina) memiliki efek terhadap peningkatan (pengurangan) curah hujan. Dipole Mode Positif memberikan dampak pengurangan curah hujan pada periode SON dan MAM. Dipole Mode Negatif memberikan dampak bervariasi pada curah hujan pada periode JJA, SON dan DJF. Hubungan signifikan antara curah hujan tahunan dan produktivitas padi hanya ditunjukkan di Sungai Kunyit dan Sungai Kakap. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa curah hujan tahunan secara umum tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas padi di sebagian besar wilayah penelitian. ABSTRACTRainfall variability is closely related to climate change in a particular region and it is useful in estimating the water availability for agriculture, especially lowland rice. This study examines the rainfall variability and correlation between annual rainfall and rice productivity in West Kalimantan. The research location is focused on the Mempawah and Kubu Raya districts in 2000-2019. The variability equation accompanied by correlation and composite analysis was used in the analysis. The result shows that the variability of annual rainfall in Mempawah and Kubu Raya falls in the low category. Monthly rainfall variability values mark a range that varies from low to extreme at each location. El Nino had a substantial negative impact on rainfall in the June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November SON period. While, La Nina had a positive impact on rainfall only in the JJA period. In the December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM) period, El Nino (La Nina) has an anomalous effect on increasing (reducing) rainfall. Positive Dipole Mode gives the negative impact in the SON dan MAM period. Negative Dipole Mode has a varied impact on rainfall in the JJA, SON and DJF periods. The significant corellation between annual rainfall and rice productivity was shown only at Sungai Kunyit and Sungai Kakap. This indicates that the annual rainfall generally has no significant effect on rice productivity in most areas.

scholarly journals Análise Das Séries Temporais De Precipitação Do Semiárido Paraibano Em Um Período De 100 Anos - 1911 A 2010 (Analysis Of The Time Series Of Precipitation Of The Paraiba Semi Arid In A Period Of 100 Years - 1911 To 2010)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 680
Author(s):  
Milla Nobrega de Menezes Costa ◽  
Carmem Terezinha Becker ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Semi Arid

O estado da Paraíba apresenta cerca de 76% do seu território abrangido pela região semiárida do Nordeste brasileiro, incluindo 170 dos 223 municípios, dentre estes, estão os municípios de Antenor Navarro atual São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Catolé do Rocha e Soledade que se sobressaem como importantes polos agrícolas e econômicos do estado, e que frequentemente são afetados pela alta variabilidade climática. Neste trabalho, foi analisado para estes 4 municípios a distribuição pluviométrica num período de cem anos (de 1911 até o ano de 2010) verificando as variações e/ou tendências nas suas séries temporais e investigando se existe uma relação entre a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP) com a pluviometria anual das 4 localidades. A partir dos resultados obtidos, verificou-se que São João do Rio do Peixe tem a maior média pluviométrica, porém a tendência de sua série temporal apresentando-se negativa, em contraposto aos outros municípios que apresentaram médias pluviométricas menores, porém com tendências positivas. A investigação da influência da ODP na precipitação anual normalizada das séries analisadas mostrou que uma parcela da ODP influência na variabilidade pluviométrica, porém depende da sua intensidade e de outros fatores tais como o dipolo do Atlântico Tropical e eventos de El Niño/La Niña, indicando que maiores investigações devem ser feitas. A B S T R A C T The state of Paraíba has about 76% of its territory covered by the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil, including 170 of the 223 municipalities, among these are the municipalities of Antenor Navarro current São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Soledade and Catolé that stand out as important agricultural and economic centers of the state, which are often affected by high climatic variability. This work was analyzed for these four counties rainfall distribution over one hundred years (1911 until 2010) verifying the changes and / or trends in their series and investigating whether there is a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( ODP) with annual rainfall of 4 locations. From the results obtained, it was found that St. John's River Fish has the highest average rainfall, but the tendency of his series showed up negative in opposed to other municipalities that had lower average rainfall, but with positive trends. The investigation of the influence of PDO on normalized annual rainfall series analyzed, showed that a portion of the ODP influence on rainfall variability, but depends on their strength and other factors such as the Tropical Atlantic dipole and El Niño / La Niña, indicating that further investigations should be made.

scholarly journals Caracterização de eventos secos e chuvosos na microrregião de Imperatriz - MA

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 325
Author(s):  
Francisco das Chagas Araujo Nascimento ◽  
Célia Campos Braga ◽  
Fabiane Regina Cunha Dantas Araújo ◽  
Ewerton Vôlney da Silva Costa
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Este trabalho teve o objetivo de identificar, quantificar e caracterizar os eventos secos e chuvosos na microrregião de Imperatriz – MA, no período de 1985 a 2013. Para isso, utilizou-se dados de cinco postos pluviométricos distribuídos ao longo da microrregião, fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) e Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA). A estes dados foi aplicada a técnica desenvolvida por Mckee et al (1993), que propuseram o Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI, para quantificar o excesso e déficit de precipitação nas escalas sazonal, semestral e anual. Os resultados mostraram uma predominância de eventos extremos de seca em todas as escalas do SPI sendo bem evidentes na década de 1990 e nos anos de 2012/2013. Por outro lado, as maiores sequências chuvosas ocorreram no final da década de 1980 em todas as escalas estudadas. Os maiores períodos de eventos secos (chuvosos) corresponderam aos períodos de eventos fortes de El Nino (La Nina). Observou-se ainda, que as chuvas na região são propiciadas também pela atuação de diversos outros sistemas meteorológicos, tais como, Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul, Sistemas Frontais e efeitos de brisa local.

scholarly journals Variabilidade do Índice de Precipitação Padronizada na Região Norte do Estado do Paraná Associada aos Eventos de El Niño-Oscilação Sul

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi ◽  
José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior ◽  
Givanildo de Góis ◽  
Emerson Galvani
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Resumo Este estudo objetivou avaliar a variabilidade da seca com base no índice Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) em localidades da região Norte do estado do Paraná e a sua relação com o El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS). Utilizaram-se as séries pluviométricas de cinco estações meteorológicas com 40 anos, obtidas junto ao Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, ao Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e ao Sistema Meteorológico do Paraná. Destacou-se que os eventos de El Niño e La Niña influenciaram na variabilidade anual das chuvas, entretanto, mostraram associações menos significativas com extremos secos do índice SPI. Com a redução significativa dos totais de chuvas, o período de junho a agosto registrou a maior frequência das categorias de SPI moderadamente seco (18,3%), muito seco (13,0%) e extremamente seco (7,0%). As maiores frequências mensais de seca foram com intensidades, moderada, muito e extremamente seca, foram registrada na estação de Apucarana (83 eventos), seguida pelas estações de Maringá e Paranavaí (68 eventos), e Bela Vista do Paraíso (63 eventos) e Londrina (66 eventos), com as menores ocorrências de eventos de seca. Embora a literatura consultada indique a associação do aumento ou redução dos totais pluviométricos durante a ocorrência dos eventos El Niño e La Niña, as correlções de Kendall, Spearman e Pearson, e os parâmetros estatísticos (índice de concordância, erro padrão da estimativa e Teste t) empregados indicaram predominantemente baixas correlações entre os resultados obtidos de SPI - 1 mês e o ENOS em todas as regiões estudada.

scholarly journals Annual climate summary Australia (2016): strong El Niño gives way to strong negative IOD.

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Skie Tobin ◽  
Phillip Reid ◽  
Elaine Miles
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Australian Climate ◽  
Southern Annual Mode

Australian climate patterns and associated anomalies during 2016 are reviewed, with reference to relevant climate drivers for the Australian region. 2016 was the fourth-warmest year on record for Australia (annual anomaly of +0.87 °C), and the warmest year on record for the globe (the third year running that a new record has been set). Annual rainfall was above average for most of Australia, but below average for areas of the northern coasts between the Gascoyne in Western Australia and Townsville in Queensland, and pockets of coastal southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.The very strong 2015–16 El Niño contributed to a very warm and dry first quarter. Autumn was the warmest on record nationally, with a significant nationwide heatwave occurring in late February to mid-March and bushfires at the start of the year in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia. In May the El Niño broke down and rainfall increased as a very strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole developed, lasting until November. While the central tropical Pacific approached La Niña thresholds during spring, a La Niña did not develop. The Southern Annual Mode commenced the year in a generally positive phase, was strongly positive in June and September, and was following by a strongly negative phase from late October until the end of the year.The period from May to September was record wet, relieving areas of drought in Queensland and southeastern Australia, but also causing flooding in multiple states. The last three months of the year saw a return to near-average rainfall and, while October and November were cooler than average for large areas, December was very warm for the eastern states.Ocean temperatures were also record warm for the Australian region during 2016, with an annual anomaly of +0.73 °C. Temperatures were particularly high during the first half of the year and resulted in widespread severe coral bleaching.

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