scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF ENSO ON WET AND DRY SPELL FREQUENCY FOR RAINFED CROPPING PERIOD OVER TAMIL NADU

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 63-65
Author(s):  
M. Vengateswari ◽  
V. Geethalakshmi ◽  
K. Bhuvaneswari ◽  
S. Panneerselvam
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Dry Spell

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Several factors are responsible for recent climatic anomalies includes seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall in the region in which regional and global sea surface temperature (SST) changes is the most significant factor. It is well recognized that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability on seasonal to inter-annual scales and its impacts are felt worldwide. Seasonal to inter-annual rainfall fluctuations strongly affect the success of agriculture and the abundance of water resources. Daily rainfall data at district scale was obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for a period of 43 years (1971&amp;ndash;2013) was categorized based on the ENSO episodes and the analysis was performed for the rainfed cropping period (RCP, September&amp;ndash;December). A week (7 days) with the cumulative rainfall amount of 50&amp;thinsp;mm was considered as one wet spell. Non rainy days observed continuously for a decade (10 days) that period was considered to be one dry spell. Results revealed that El Niño conditions positively influenced the rainfall. Compared to neutral years, La Niña years received less rainfall as it showed the negative deviation in most of districts of Tamil Nadu. More wet spell and lesser dry spell weeks was observed under El Niño condition while the lesser wet spell and more dry spell was observed under La Niña conditions. Higher amount of rainfall during El Niño led to more number of wet spells under El Niño event.</p>

scholarly journals INFLUÊNCIA DO ENOS NAS CHUVAS ANUAIS DA REGIÃO AMAZÔNICA DO MATO GROSSO

Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Adilson Pacheco Souza ◽  
Carla Aparecida Ascoli ◽  
Eduardo Morgan Uliana ◽  
Frederico Terra de Almeida ◽  
Bruno Henrique Casavecchia
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
River Region

A quantidade e as distribuições espaciais e temporais das chuvas determinam o tipo de vegetação natural, potencialidades de exploração agropecuária e disponibilidade de recursos hídricos. Todavia, as chuvas estão diretamente relacionadas com a circulação geral da atmosfera (CGA) e com as mudanças nos seus comportamentos. Em escala global, a maior influência é decorrente do modo de variabilidade climático denominado de El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS) e suas diferentes fases/intensidades (El Niño – EN; La Niña - LN), que determinam as anomalias de chuva em diversas regiões. Diante da grande aptidão agropecuária do estado de Mato Grosso (MT), objetivou-se avaliar as influências do EN e LN para as bacias hidrográficas dos Rios Juruena, Teles Pires e Xingu, situados na região Amazônica. As regiões das nascentes (Alto) das três bacias apresentam similaridade nos totais anuais de chuva. As diferentes intensidades de EN e LN influenciaram de forma significativa nos índices de chuva anual na bacia do Rio Teles Pires. EN-Forte provoca reduções nos totais anuais de chuvas nas regiões baixas (foz) das três bacias hidrográficas. LN-Forte aumentou as chuvas anuais independentemente da região do rio Teles Pires. LN-moderado reduz os totais anuais de chuva independentemente da bacia hidrográfica.Palavra-chave: bacias hidrográficas, variabilidade climática, distribuição espacial. ENOS INFLUENCE IN THE ANNUAL RAINS OF THE REGION AMAZON OF MATO GROSSO STATE ABSTRACT:The amount and spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall determine the type of natural vegetation, agricultural exploration potential and availability of water resources. However, the rainfall are directly dependents to the general circulation of the atmosphere and changes in your behavior. On a global scale, the major influences are the result of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its different phases/intensities (El Niño - EN; La Niña - LN), which determine the precipitation anomalies in several regions. Given the large agricultural faculty of Mato Grosso State, Brazil, aimed to evaluate the influence of EN and LN phenomena for the watershed of the rivers Juruena, Teles Pires and Xingu, located in the Amazon region. The regions of the sources of river (High) of the three watershed have similarity in total annual rainfall. The different intensities of EN and LN cause greater influence in the rates of annual rainfall in the Teles Pires Watershed. EN-Intensive causes reductions in total annual rainfall in the lowlands (mouth rivers) of the three watersheds. LN-Intensive provides increase in annual rainfall regardless of the Teles Pires River region. LN-moderate reduces the total annual rainfall regardless of the watershed.Keywords: watersheds, climatic variability, spatial distribution. DOI:

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

scholarly journals The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Rivera
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

scholarly journals Response of regional climate and glacier ice proxies to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the subtropical Andes

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-211
Author(s):  
E. Dietze ◽  
A. Kleber ◽  
M. Schwikowski
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ion Concentrations ◽  
Major Ion ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Glacier Ice

Abstract. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important element of earth's ocean-climate system. To further understand its past variability, proxy records from climate archives need to be studied. Ice cores from high alpine glaciers may contain high resolution ENSO proxy information, given the glacier site is climatologically sensitive to ENSO. We investigated signals of ENSO in the climate of the subtropical Andes in the proximity of Cerro Tapado glacier (30°08' S, 69°55' W, 5550 m a.s.l.), where a 36 m long ice core was drilled in 1999 (Ginot, 2001). We used annual and semi-annual precipitation and temperature time series from regional meteorological stations and interpolated grids for correlation analyses with ENSO indices and ice core-derived proxies (net accumulation, stable isotope ratio δ18O, major ion concentrations). The total time period investigated here comprises 1900 to 2000, but varies with data sets. Only in the western, i.e. Mediterranean Andes precipitation is higher (lower) during El Niño (La Niña) events, especially at higher altitudes, due to the latitudinal shift of frontal activity during austral winters. However, the temperature response to ENSO is more stable in space and time, being higher (lower) during El Niño (La Niña) events in most of the subtropical Andes all year long. From a northwest to southeast teleconnection gradient, we suggest a regional water vapour feedback triggers temperature anomalies as a function of ENSO-related changes in regional pressure systems, Pacific sea surface temperature and tropical moisture input. Tapado glacier ice proxies are found to be predominantly connected to eastern Andean summer rain climate, which contradicts previous studies and the modern mean spatial boundary between subtropical summer and winter rain climate derived from the grid data. The only ice core proxy showing a response to ENSO is the major ion concentrations, via local temperature indicating reduced sublimation and mineral dust input during El Niño years.

scholarly journals EL NINO, LA NINA, DAN PENAWARAN PANGAN DI JAWA, INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Arini Wahyu Utami ◽  
Jamhari Jamhari ◽  
Suhatmini Hardyastuti
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Paddy and maize are two important food crops in Indonesia and mainly produced in Java Island. This research aimed to know the impact of El Nino and La Nina on paddy and maize farmer’s supply in Java. Cross sectional data from four provinces in Java was combined with time series data during 1987-2006. Paddy supply was estimated using log model, while maize supply used autoregressive model; each was estimated using two types of regression function. First, it included dummy variable of El Nino and La Nina to know their influence into paddy and maize supply. Second, Southern Oscillation Index was used to analyze the supply changing when El Nino or La Nina occur. The result showed that El Nino and La Nina did not influence paddy supply, while La Nina influenced maize supply in Java. Maize supply increased when La Nina occurred.

Classification of El Niño and La Niña years for water resources management in Alberta

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (12) ◽  
pp. 1093-1098
Author(s):  
Zahidul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
La Nina

Classification of El Niño and La Niña years in a historical time period is necessary to analyze their impacts on hydrology and water resources management. In this study, various El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, and how they are used to classify El Niño or La Niña years have been reviewed. Based on the review, a simple method of classifying El Niño or La Niña years has been proposed.

scholarly journals Combined Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Northern Winter Stratosphere

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Rao ◽  
Rongcai Ren ◽  
Xin Xia ◽  
Chunhua Shi ◽  
Dong Guo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Using reanalysis and the sea surface temperature (SST) analysis, the combined impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the northern winter stratosphere is investigated. The warm and weak stratospheric polar vortex response to El Niño simply appears during positive PDO, whereas the cold and strong stratospheric polar vortex response to La Niña is preferable during negative PDO in the reanalysis. Two mechanisms may account for the enhanced stratospheric response when ENSO and PDO are in phase. First, the asymmetries of the intensity and frequency between El Niño and La Niña can be identified for the two PDO phases. Second, the extratropical SST anomalies in the North Pacific may also play a role in the varying extratropical response to ENSO. The North Pacific SST anomalies related to PDO superimpose ENSO SST anomalies when they are in phase but undermine them when they are out of phase. The superimposed North Pacific SST anomalies help to increase SST meridional gradient anomalies between tropical and extratropics, as well as to lock the local height response to ENSO. Therefore, the passages for the upward propagation of waves from the troposphere is more unimpeded when positive PDO is configured with El Niño, and vice versa when negative PDO is configured with La Niña.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document