CLIMATE CHANGE PROCESSES THAT AFFECT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF GEOSYSTEMS (IN THE EXAMPLE OF CENTRAL YAKUTIA)

2021 ◽  
pp. 22-28
Author(s):  
M. I. LOSKIN ◽  
◽  
S. P. GOTOVTSEV ◽  
S. A. PAVLOVA

In Central Yakutia, compared with the seventies of the XX century. the average annualair temperature increased by 2,5-3,0°C. Against the background of climate warming, which provoked extreme weather events, degradation of ground ice, the water regime of small rivers and forested areas changed, which affected the stability of geosystems located in the basins of small rivers. On the example of the Ebe estuary irrigation system located in Central Yakutia,studies were carried out to establish the causes of the occurrence of processes associated with climate change that affect the stability of geosystems. The increasing incidence of extreme weather events, changes in precipitation and temperature indicators lead to a decrease in the yield of agricultural land, disruption of the life of rural areas. Excessive holding of flood waters in a forced mode in order to protect the residential and social sector of the settlement located in the downstream pool from flooding led to the destruction of the gateway regulator of the estuary irrigation system. The main reason for the overstandard holding of the gateway regulator in forced mode in order to avoid the threat of flooding of the settlement was the backwater from the mouth of the river. Haar Balagan, which slows down the outflow of flood waters downstream. According to the research results, it can be assumed that one of the negative processes that negatively affect the stability of geosystems is an increase in the depth of seasonal thawing under conditions of climate change under forests in the taiga zone of Central Yakutia, which, in the studies carried out, provoked a decrease in the stability of the ameliorative agricultural landscape and disruption of the life support of the settlement.To reduce the risks of these negative phenomena, it is necessary to take a set of preventive adaptive measures to climate change, including the study of the climatic variability of the flow of small rivers and technical solutions for its regulation. Сlimate change, hydraulic engineering, estuary irrigation, Central Yakutia, spring floods, stability of geosystems.

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Lilwah

Close to ninety percent of Guyana‟s population live along a low lying coastal plain, which is below sea level and very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While the national government has not yet developed a comprehensive climate policy, the potential impacts of climate change is considered in several sectoral policies, much of which emphasize mitigation, with little focus on adaptation. This research examined the current priorities for adaptation by a review of the policies within the natural resource sector to identify opportunities for adaptation, especially ecosystem based adaptation. A Diagnostic Adaptation Framework (DAF) was used to help identify approaches to address a given adaptation challenge with regards to needs, measures and options. A survey questionnaire was used to support the policy reviews and identified four key vulnerabilities: coastal floods; sea level rise; drought and extreme weather events. The application of the DAF in selecting an adaptation method suggests the need for more data on drought and extreme weather events. Coastal flooding is addressed, with recognized need for more data and public awareness for ecosystem based adaptation


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis

Abstract Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, Dynamic Energy Budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm level were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lars Ingolf Eide ◽  
Erik Vanem

Global warming and extreme weather events reported in the last years have attracted a lot of attention not only in academia and media but also in the shipping industry. Three important questions have been in focus: will occurrence of extreme weather events increase in the future, which geographical locations will be most affected, and to what degree will climate change affect future ship traffic and design of ship structures. Observed and projected changes in wave conditions are expected to have the largest effect on ship design and operations in comparison to other environmental phenomena. The present study briefly summarizes recent investigations addressing changes of significant wave height in the North Atlantic, including the last findings of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and discusses how these changes can be included in environmental description used for ship design. It is also interesting to notice that climate changes resulting in some ocean regions in increase of storm activity (intensity, duration and fetch) and changes of storm tracks may result in secondary effects such as increased frequency of occurrence of abnormal waves, also called rogue or freak waves. This study shows how the scientific findings on climate change and rogue waves can be incorporated in the risk-based approach used in current design practice of tankers, and ships structures in general. Further, it demonstrates the effect of climate change and rogue waves on tanker design, particularly on the safety level of current design practice. Finally, the present paper discusses how structural design of ships can be upgraded to account for climate change and rogue waves but economic consequences do not need to be significant.


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