scholarly journals Violations at the Reference Point of Discontinuity: Limitations of Prospect Theory and an Alternative Model of Risk Choices

2022 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Aaron Anil Chadee ◽  
Xsitaaz T. Chadee ◽  
Clyde Chadee ◽  
Festus Otuloge
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Function Concept ◽  
Contemporary Debate ◽  
Gains And Losses

The tilted S-shaped utility function proposed in Prospect Theory (PT) relied fundamentally on the geometrical notion that there is a discontinuity between gains and losses, and that individual preferences change relative to a reference point. This results in PT having three distinct parameters; concavity, convexity and the reference point represented as a disjoint between the concavity and convexity sections of the curve. The objective of this paper is to examine the geometrical violations of PT at the zero point of reference. This qualitative study adopted a theoretical review of PT and Markowitz’s triply inflected value function concept to unravel methodological assumptions which were not fully addressed by either PT or cumulative PT. Our findings suggest a need to account for continuity and to resolve this violation of PT at the reference point. In so doing, an alternative preference transition theory, was proposed as a solution that includes a phase change space to cojoin these three separate parameters into one continuous nonlinear model. This novel conceptual model adds new knowledge of risk and uncertainty in decision making. Through a better understanding of an individual’s reference point in decision making behaviour, we add to contemporary debate by complementing empirical studies and harmonizing research in this field. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-01-03 Full Text: PDF

Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey W. Taliaferro
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Endowment Effect ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Point Selection

Prospect theory is one of the most influential behavioral theories in the international relations (IR) field, particularly among scholars of security studies, political psychology, and foreign policy analysis. Developed by Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory provides key insights into decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. For example, most individuals are risk averse to secure gains, but risk acceptant to avoid losses (loss aversion). In addition, most people value items they already posses more than they value items they want to acquire (endowment effect), and tend to be risk averse if they perceive themselves to be facing gains relative to their reference point (risk propensity). Prospect theory has generated an enormous volume of scholarship in IR, which can be divided into two “generations”. The first generation (1990–1999) sought to establish prospect theory’s plausibility in the “real world” by testing hypotheses derived from it against subjective expected-utility theory or rational choice models of foreign policy decision making. The second generation (2000–present) began to incorporate concepts associated with prospect theory and related experimental literature on group risk taking into existing mid-level theories of IR and foreign policy behavior. Two substantive areas covered by scholars during this period are coercive diplomacy and great power intervention in the periphery as they relate to loss aversion. Both generations of prospect theory literature suffer from conceptual and methodological difficulties, mainly around the issues of reference point selection, framing, and preference reversal outside laboratory settings.

scholarly journals Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiattribute Decision Making Method Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Dempster-Shafer Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xihua Li ◽  
Fuqiang Wang ◽  
Xiaohong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Attribute Weight ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Shafer Theory

With respect to decision making problems under uncertainty, a trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy multiattribute decision making method based on cumulative prospect theory and Dempster-Shafer theory is developed. The proposed method reflects behavioral characteristics of decision makers, information fuzziness under uncertainty, and uncertain attribute weight information. Firstly, distance measurement and comparison rule of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to derive value function under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment. Secondly, the value function and decision weight function are used to calculate prospect values of attributes for each alternative. Then considering uncertain attribute weight information, Dempster-Shafer theory is used to aggregate prospect values for each alternative, and overall prospect values are obtained and thus the alternatives are sorted consequently. Finally, an illustrative example shows the feasibility of the proposed method.

scholarly journals A DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK BASED ON THE PROSPECT THEORY UNDER AN INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY ENVIRONMENT

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 2374-2396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Gu ◽  
Zijian Wang ◽  
Zeshui Xu ◽  
Xuezheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Behavior Pattern ◽  
Weighting Function ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Decision Making Framework ◽  
Decision Making Behavior ◽  
The Value Function

Uncertainty and ambiguity are frequently involved in the decision-making process in our daily life. This paper develops a generalized decision-making framework based on the prospect theory under an intuitionistic fuzzy environment, by closely integrating the prospect theory and the intuitionistic fuzzy sets into our framework. We demonstrate how to compute the intuitionistic fuzzy prospect values as the reference values for decision-making and elaborate a four-step editing phase and a valuation phase with two key functions: the value function and the weighting function. We then conduct experiments to test our decision- making methodology and the key features of our framework. The experimental results show that the shapes of the value function and the weighting function in our framework are in line with those of prospect theory. The methodology proposed in this paper to elicit prospects that are not only under uncertainty but also under ambiguity. We reveal the decision-making behavior pattern through comparing the parameters. People are less risk averse when making decisions under an intuitionistic fuzzy environment than under uncertainty. People still underestimate the probability of the events in our experiment. Further, the choices of participants in the experiments are consistent with the addition and multiplication principles of our framework.

Dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method with three-parameter interval grey number based on the prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 424-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Li ◽  
Dongxing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Parameter Interval ◽  
Grey Number

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a dynamic multi-attribute decision-making method based on the prospect theory for dealing with the dynamic multi-attribute decision-making problem with three-parameter interval grey number. Design/methodology/approach First, the kernel and comparison rule of three-parameter interval grey numbers are defined, which are the basis of collecting and sorting grey numbers. Next, the prospect value function is determined in view of the decision-making information with different time points as the reference points. Then, an optimal model for solving the attribute weight and time weight is constructed based on the grey entropy principle. Findings The paper provides a dynamic grey interrelation decision method based on the prospect theory with three-parameter interval grey number, and the example analysis shows that the method proposed in this paper has validity and rationality. Research limitations/implications If we have a better understanding of the weights of different reference points, it is possible to receive a more reasonable expression for the comprehensive prospect utility value function. Practical implications The paper provides a grey interrelation decision method based on the prospect theory, which can help the decision maker deal with the dynamic multi-attribute decision-making problems under the uncertain environment. Originality/value The paper proposes the kernel and ranking method of three-parameter interval grey number, and uses different time points as the reference points to define the prospect value function. Furthermore, this paper structures a dynamic grey interrelation decision method with three-parameter interval grey number based on the prospect theory.

scholarly journals Using Insights from Prospect Theory to Enhance Sustainable Decision Making by Agribusinesses in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jimena Gonzalez-Ramirez ◽  
Poonam Arora ◽  
Guillermo Podesta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Land Tenure ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
Gains And Losses

Farm production often involves family-owned agribusinesses where decisions are made by households or individuals, not corporate managers. As these decisions have important economic, environmental, and social implications, decision-making processes must be understood to foster sustainable agricultural production. Decision experiments, involving lotteries, targeting farmers in the Argentine Pampas were used to estimate prospect theory (PT) parameters. Results suggest that decisions under risk are better represented by prospect theory than by expected utility (EU) theory: Decision makers treat gains and losses differently and use subjective probabilities of outcomes; they are quite loss averse and are more likely to overweigh probabilities of infrequent events, such as large droughts or floods. Statistical testing revealed heterogeneity in the risk tied to land tenure (land owners vs. renters) and agribusiness roles (farmers vs. technical advisors). Perceptions of risk, probability, and outcomes played a large role in the sustainability of production. Due to a strong desire to avoid losses, decision makers have a greater short term focus: Immediate economic outcomes are more salient, and environmental and social investments are framed as costs rather than long-term gains. This research can help design policies, programs, and tools that assist agribusinesses in managing better contradictions across the triple bottom line to ensure greater sustainability.

scholarly journals Grey Situation Group Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhang ◽  
Zhigeng Fang ◽  
Xiaqing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Topsis Method ◽  
Psychological Behavior ◽  
Ideal Situation

This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts’ risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts’ psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts’ evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

An Empirical Study on Value Functions of Stock Markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 204-210 ◽  
pp. 899-906
Author(s):  
Feng Hua Wen ◽  
Gui Tian Rao ◽  
Xiao Guang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Subjective Experience ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
A Value ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The Value Function ◽  
Psychological Experiments

As a core component of the prospect theory, a value function is employed to characterize the subjective experience of a decision-maker’s gain or loss. Previous empirical studies of the prospect theory were largely carried out through psychological experiments on individual decision-makers. In this paper, taking the whole stock market as an entity, we use the flow of information extracted by EGARCH Model as the proxy variable of change in wealth, and then use a two-stage power function as the representation of the value function to study the daily return data from the stock markets of 10 countries or regions. Empirical results show that the value functions of all the 10 stock markets present the shape of inverse-S, instead of the S-Shape of the value function generated by most psychological experiments on individuals.

scholarly journals Dynamic Hybrid Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Problem Based on Reference Point Adaptation

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Wei-Min Ma ◽  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Bing-Zhen Sun ◽  
Neng-Li Wang ◽  
Hai-Yan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Dynamic Hybrid

Individuals’ decision-making depends on reference points in prospect theory. This research considers the bounded rationality of decision makers and constructs a dynamic hybrid multiple attribute decision-making (DHMADM) model. Unlike existing models, the DHMADM model focuses on dynamic reference point, which has been proven in prospect theory. This research presents the effects of reference point adaptation on decision-making through model calculation. The optimal choice of decision makers changed with the change of the reference point in the DHMADM model. By experiment, we found that the DHMADM model considering reference point adaptation can more accurately express the final choice of decision makers than models only considering the static reference point.

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