Deep Learning in Multi-step Forecasting of Chaotic Dynamics

The prediction of chaotic dynamical systems’ future evolution is widely debated and represents a hot topic in the context of nonlinear time series analysis. Recent advances in the field proved that machine learning techniques, and in particular artificial neural networks, are well suited to deal with this problem. The current state-of-the-art primarily focuses on noise-free time series, an ideal situation that never occurs in real-world applications. This chapter provides a comprehensive analysis that aims at bridging the gap between the deterministic dynamics generated by archetypal chaotic systems, and the real-world time series. We also deeply explore the importance of different typologies of noise, namely observation and structural noise. Artificial intelligence techniques turned out to provide robust predictions, and potentially represent an effective and flexible alternative to the traditional physically-based approach for real-world applications. Besides the accuracy of the forecasting, the domain-adaptation analysis attested the high generalization capability of the neural predictors across a relatively heterogeneous spatial domain.

Estimating Vat Refunds the Case of South Africa

This study intends to estimate VAT refund levels in South Africa in an ideal situation where there are well-equipped, incorruptible officials and a proper VAT system is in place. Understanding the dynamics behind the behaviour of VAT and its main drivers is crucial and could have a huge benefit to the country’s economy with regards to closing the tax gap related to this tax type. Using the data from various sources (VAT refunds and some macroeconomic variables), a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model was used to estimate the level of VAT refunds in South Africa. The model estimates VAT refunds for the period 2021/22 to be R242.7 billion, while the VAT refunds forecast for the period 2022/23 and 2023/24 amounts to R254.6 billion and R267.3 billion, respectively. Furthermore, VAT refunds contribute on average 17.5% to the total tax for the forecast period of 2021/22-2023/24. The study also indicates that the growth in VAT refunds is influenced by the growth in domestic VAT collections, increasing employment rate and the growth in both agriculture and construction GDP. The estimated level of VAT refunds can serve as an important consideration in the national budgeting processes in South Africa. Adequate provisions can be made to enable proper planning and distributions to government departments. To our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind for South Africa. In summary, the South African tax authority should not deviate from the primary goal of building sound VAT systems based on improved voluntary compliance through effective systems of self-assessment

Lithofacies and petrochemical characterization of volcano-sedimentary sequence of Chandil Formation around Kharidih-Bareda area, Seraikela-Kharsawan District, Jharkhand: implications for uranium mineralization

Mesoproterozoic Chandil Formation (ca. 1600 Ma) of North Singhbhum Mobile Belt record numerous features of felsic volcaniclastics and felsic to intermediate volcanics preserved in the central sector of the fold belt around Kharidih-Bareda area, Seraikela-Kharsawan district, Jharkhand. The felsic volcanic rocks exhibit flow bands, autoclasts and layering of crystal mushes revealing viscous nature of eruptives. The volcaniclastic sediments comprise of significant proportion of volcanic epiclasts and accidental lithic fragments. These volcaniclastics have been categorized into five prominent lithofacies viz, stratified lapilli tuff, banded tuff, tuff with penecontemporaneous deformation, welded lapilli stones, vitric tuff and volcanic bombs by field and petrographic studies of outcrops and subsurface borehole cores. The welded lapilli tuffs display fiamme and eutaxitic texture. Interlayering of the volcaniclastics, which are most often pyrite-rich, with psamo-pelitic lithology like carbonaceous phyllite, variegated phyllite, quartzite and minor limestone is suggestive of marine euxenic depositional environment. Petrographic study of the volcaniclastics indicated presence of glass shards, garnet phenocrysts, spherules of tremolite, ovoid to lenticular accretionary lapilli along with devitrified glassy material. Compositionally these felsic volcanics and volcaniclastics are rhyodacitic to andesitic in nature with peraluminous to meta aluminous in character. A/CNK values vary from 0.52 to 2.42 in felsic volcanics and from 0.12 to 1.63 in volcaniclastics. Signatures of arc magmatism is indicated by low concentration of HFS elements such as Nb (5-17 ppm), Ga (11-17 ppm) and Y (5-28 ppm). Elevated intrinsic content of uranium (3-8 ppm), Th/U ratio ranging from 1.2 to 13.2, presence of metamict allanite and zircon in volcanics and volcaniclastics reveal their suitability as a prospective source for search of uranium mineralization. The volcanic-volcaniclastic-clastic association of the Chandil Formation provides an ideal situation where provenance and province both are available. Thus, suitable litho-structural locales such as the concealed shear zones sympathetic to the Dalma thrust and South Purulia Shear Zone within the volcano-sedimentary package of Chandil Formation may be targeted as preferable sites for locating concealed uranium mineralization.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY TOPSIS MODEL FOR CONTAINER PORT SELECTION CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

Container ships are the type of ships that produce the most emissions in maritime transport. In container transportation not only in navigation but also at container ports, a lot of emissions are formed. Ports are generally close by and highly interacted with the inner parts of the city, the impacts of the gas emissions are quite high on people. The study investigated port selection criteria, in terms of cost, efficiency and especially in terms of environmental impacts in order to create awareness. Container port selection problem was solved using fuzzy TOPSIS (The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) method considering the perspective of carriers. In the study, the container port selection was carried out among the four largest container ports in Turkey.

Detention Reservoir: Proposal for Flood Control in the Ipiranga Stream Basin, Juiz de Fora, MG, Brazil

In order to provide parameters for sizing a damping reservoir, which was intended to control the floods that occur in the Ipiranga Stream basin, a routine developed in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) is used. From the identification of the most critical point of the flood, hydrological flow data are presented, estimated by dividing the basin into sub-basins, using the Rational method, resulting in a value of flow higher than the admissible one for the stream channel. The method used in dimensioning the reservoir was flood routing. After making a pre-selection of the most interesting place to position the reservoir, insertions of the situation existent were made to the VBA application, in order to generate scenarios and enable the choice of an ideal situation, in view of the presented constraints. A very acceptable and feasible result is pointed out, indicating general parameters for sizing a reservoir to control floods in the Ipiranga Stream basin.

Superposition of nuclear states in multi-lambda systems using x-ray laser pulses

Nuclear-state population transfer in the multi-lambda systems with N = 5 that interact with four X-ray laser pulses are investigated theoretically. By using the coincident pulses and stimulated Raman adiabatic passage (STIRAP) techniques, the population transfer from one initially populated ground state to an arbitrary coherent superposition of other ground states. Since the frequency of currently available X-ray lasers is lower than the gamma rays, in this method, X-ray laser pulses with different frequencies are interacting with the accelerated nuclei. We employ the Morris-Shore (MS) transformation to reduce the five-states system to two separate three-state and two-state linkage. The required laser intensities were calculated, which satisfy the conditions of coincident pulses and multi-lambda STIRAP techniques. Considering the spontaneous emission from excited states, the master equation has to be used for numerical study, and it is shown that an arbitrary superposition of final ground states can be obtained. Also, it is observed that by increasing the number of coincident pulses, the population of ground states gets closer to the ideal situation.

P.176 Assessing the competence of neurology residents in performing an interphysician telephone consultation.

Background: Neurology Residency training in Canada is transitioning to competence based medical education (CBME) in July 2020 and the Royal College Neurology Specialty Committee has identified “providing consultation for and managing patients at outlying centers,” to be an entrustable professional activity (EPA). At Western, neurology telephone consultations, from outlying centres, are attended by both the resident and the staff Neurologist. This scenario provides the ideal situation for direct observation and immediate formative feedback. The resident’s performance is assessed using the ’TeleTool’ which utilizes an entrustment scale and has a short narrative portion. Methods: This mixed methods study aims to determine the reliability and validity of the ’TeleTool’ in assessing the performance of the telephone consultation by senior neurology residents. Informed consent was obtained from residents (9) and staff (7) involved. Scores on the entrustment scale and narrative comments were analysed. Results: Information on 30 encounters (involving 9 residents) was collected. TeleTool results demonstrated higher entrustment scores in PGY4 and PGY5 levels. Overall, ratings were consistent across the 7 consultants assessors. Conclusions: The TeleTool was reliable and valid in assessing competence in the telephone consultation and will be a useful tool for assessment of this EPA.

Mathematical Model Considering Effect of COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA) and “GoTo Travel Campaign”

In the end of 2019, the emergence of COVID-19 was reported and confirmed for the first time, and it triggered an international pandemic. In Japan, the strong tendency to spread of infection is still continuing. The Japanese Government has been raised two concepts to overcome this difficulty. One is the thorough measures to control of the spread of infection and the other is the economic recovery. The government has carried out the corresponding two policies: the use of COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA) and the application of “GoTo Travel Campaign”. We focus on these two policies and study an ideal situation, which enables us to balance more economic recovery and control of the spread of infection. To pursue this goal, we propose a mathematical model to estimate these policies’s effects and conduct simulations of 28 scenarios. In addition, we analyze each result of the simulation and investigate characteristics of each situation. As a result, we clearly find that it required that not only the increasing the using rate of COCOA but also a positive change of people’s behaviors and awareness.

Indonesian Uncertainty on Tourism Components in the New Normal Period and the Ability to Travel Soon

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Indonesia, one of the most-impacted industries was its tourism sector. After the government developed various transmission prevention policies, a press release from the Indonesian president in May 2020 established the new normal terms. These new terms sought to allow Indonesians to return to travel as soon as possible with several protocols in place. However, the post-pandemic situation has made some Indonesians feel an intolerance towards the uncertainty of changes in the tourism component. Through a descriptive quantitative approach using the theory of Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), this study aimed to determine what Indonesians feel about uncertainty, how they feel about it, and how to reduce these feelings in Camilleri’s five components of tourism. The results showed that Indonesians feel uncertainty in every component of tourist destinations, with accommodation being the most significant factor, followed by financial, protocol readiness, and health factors, particularly the threat of contracting the virus and the number of cases. Therefore, appropriate handling to eliminate the number of affected cases and the uncertainty of crowds in the destination can significantly contribute to creating the ideal situation awaited by most Indonesians before they decide to return to travel.

How Many Ways Can Nature Kill the Goose That Laid the Golden Egg? – The Many Mechanisms of Evolved Glyphosate Resistance

Weeding has been the bane of humanity since the dawn of agriculture. For about 70 years, synthetic herbicides have removed much of the drudgery of this onerous task. Glyphosate was introduced as a non-selective herbicide in 1974. Its ideal properties made it a very popular herbicide, and the introduction of glyphosate-resistant (GR) crops allowed its use as a selective herbicide, greatly expanding its use to become the most used herbicide on earth. For farmers who used glyphosate in GR crops, it was the golden age of weed management, as this technology significantly improved the efficacy and reduced the cost of weed management. Weed management was also simplified, an asset that was particularly valuable to part-time farmers. Furthermore, this technology provided the environmental benefits (reduced soil loss and fossil fuel use) of significantly reducing tillage. Farmers saved billions of US$, and weed management became more effective and simple. Indeed, to many farmers, glyphosate with GR crops became the goose that laid the golden egg. After more than 20 years of use, the first cases of GR weeds were reported in the latter 1990s. After a lag period of less than 10 years after the first GR weed was reported, the number of species reported to have evolved glyphosate resistance began to increase in a linear fashion, reaching 53 species in 2021, third only to atrazine (66 species), a much older herbicide and to ALS inhibitors (168 species), which include several different herbicides used in numerous crops since the 1980s. The long lag phase before any resistance was detected led some to believe by the mid-1990s that evolution of resistance was improbable. By this time, glyphosate use was greatly increasing, especially in GR crops, an ideal situation for the evolution of resistance. After this, the number of glyphosate-resistance cases exploded, and the mechanisms of resistance to many of these cases of resistance were determined. A recent, short commentary detailed these mechanisms after a new mechanism of resistance was reported. The number of mechanisms for resistance to no other herbicide comes close to those of glyphosate. In the present paper, we briefly describe the many evolved mechanisms by which weeds have evolved resistance to glyphosate.