scholarly journals Analisis Hubungan Ekspor, Pembayaran Hutang Luar Negeri Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Fakhrurrazi Fakhrurrazi ◽  
Hijri Juliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Debt Payment

This study aims to determine the relationship between exports, foreign debt payments, and the exchange rates on the foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia in 1988-2019. This study uses secondary data for 31 years and uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the data. The results of this study indicate that all variables have no relationship between variables, only on the foreign exchange reserves to exports. In short-term testing, the export does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, and the foreign debt payment and the exchange rate have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. However, in the long run, all variables do not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves.Keywords:Exports, Foreign Debt Payment, Exchange Rates, Foreign Exchange                    Reserves, ARDL

scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR, NILAI TUKAR, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DAN UTANG LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA TAHUN 2014-2019.

account ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arti Saleha ◽  
Heri Abrianto ◽  
Mulia Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

ABSTRACT  This study aims to analyze the effect of Exports, Exchange Rates, Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Debt on Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves partially or simultaneously in the 2014 to 2019 period. The type of data used was secondary data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics. And the Investment Coordinating Board. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression with a confidence level of 95%. The results indicate that Export partially has a significant positive effect on Foreign Exchange Reserves, Exchange Rate partially has a significant negative effect on Foreign Exchange Reserves, Foreign Direct Investment partially has a significant positive effect on Foreign Exchange Reserves and External Debt partially has a significant positive effect on Foreign Exchange Reserves. Simultaneously, all variables have a significant effect on Foreign Exchange Reserves by 88% while the remaining 12% is influenced by other factors outside of this research model.   Keywords: Exports, Exchange Rates, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Debt, Foreign Exchange Reserves ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Foreign Direct Investment dan Utang Luar Negeri terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia secara parsial maupun simultan pada periode 2014 sampai 2019. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari website resmi Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik dan Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Regresi Linier Berganda dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa Ekspor secara parsial berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa, Nilai Tukar secara parsial berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa, Foreign Direct Investment secara parsial berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa dan Utang Luar Negeri secara parsial berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa. Dan secara  simultan, variabel Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Foreign Direct Investment dan Utang Luar Negeri berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Cadangan Devisa sebesar 88% sedangkan sisanya sebesar 12% dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain di luar model penelitian ini.   Kata kunci: Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Foreign Direct Investment, Utang Luar Negeri, Cadangan Devisa

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals FDI location and exchange rates. is there really a relationship between the two?

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 642-651
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Exact Nature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The exchange rate led foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI led exchange rates and feedback effect hypotheses summarise the literature around the nature of the relationship between FDI and exchange rates. So many authors on this subject over a long period have been found to generally side with of the above-mentioned hypothesis or another without a consensus. Despite this lack of consensus with regard to the exact nature of the causal relation between these two variables, what is coming out clearly from the literature is that there indeed exist a relationship between FDI and exchange rates. The lack of consensus has prompted this current study that used the ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag)-bounds testing approach. The study revealed the existence of causality from (1) the rand value to FDI in the long run and (2) FDI to the rand value only in the short run in South Africa. The author recommends that policies which strengthen the value of the rand should be put in place in order to attract FDI in the long run. The flow of FDI into South Africa will in turn not only stabilises the value of the rand.

scholarly journals Exchange rate modelling in the development community using the ARDL cointegration approach: The case of emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-70
Author(s):  
Abdulkader Aljandali ◽  
Christos Kallandranis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Exchange Rate Models

Despite rising interest in African economies, there is little prior research on the determinants of exchange rate movements in the region. This paper examines the monthly exchange rates of the country members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from 1990 to 2010 inclusive. Long-run equilibrium exchange rate models are established, exchange rate determinants are identified, and ex-post forecasts are generated for a period of 18 months (Sekantsi, 2011). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model is used in this paper, given its statistical advantages over commonly, applied cointegration techniques. Findings show that the ARDL method generates accurate forecasts for eight out of 11 sampled exchange rates. In keeping with earlier literature (e.g., Redda & Muzindusti, 2017; Zerihun & Breitenbach, 2017; etc.), findings suggest that the chances of SADC member countries fulfilling the requirements of a currency union are quite low. This paper marks one of the first attempts in the literature to forecast exchange rates in SADC using the ARDL approach (Pesaran & Shin, 1995). The results would be of interest to policy-makers, researchers and investors.

scholarly journals The relationship between renewable energy and sustainable development in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012034
Author(s):  
G Syamni ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
Zulkifli ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract This paper is conducted to examine the relationship between the use of renewable energy and FDI in Indonesia. The data used in this study is secondary data that has been published by the World Bank and accessed in www.Data.worldbank.org. periode 2004-2019. The data analysis method used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The results of the study found that the use of renewable energy in the short and long term has a positive effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. Meanwhile, the same thing is also shown from the FDI variable in the short term and long term which has a significant positive effect on economic growth and has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, with this finding, it is concluded that both the short and long term the Indonesian government needs to make a breakthrough to explore renewable energy sources for economic growth.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINANT PROFITABILITAS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN SYARIAH PERIODE 2011-2018 PENDEKATAN AUTO REGRESIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102
Author(s):  
Gita Martha Permatasari ◽  
Dian Filianti
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Lag Model

This study aims to determine the influence of the Macro Economy, namely GDP and Inflation and Bank Characteristics, namely CAR, FDR, NPF, BOPO and Size on the Profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry in Indonesia in the 2011 - 2018 Period. The data used are secondary data, namely quarterly data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia (www.bi.go.id), Badan Pusat Statistik (www.bps.go.id), and Statistik Perbankan Syariah reports published by OJK (www.ojk.go.id). The sampling method used was purposive sampling method. The analysis technique uses the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model with statistical tools EViews 9. The results of the study show that in the short term of the GDP, Inflation, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the CAR, FDR, NPF variables have no significant effect on profitability of Islamic Banking Industry. Meanwhile in the long run of the GDP, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the Inflation, CAR, FDR, NPF variable does not significantly influence the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry.Keywords: Profitability, Sharia Bank, ARDL

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aziz Muslim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Soybean Oil ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Government Role ◽  
Short Run

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berbentuk time series, diolah dan dianalisis dengan metode estimasi dan kointegrasi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia dalam jangka pendek adalah impor kedelai sebelumnya, harga kedelai USA, harga minyak kedelai Argentina, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Dalam jangka panjang faktor yang berpengaruh adalah harga minyak kedelai Argentina, PDB Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Kajian ini merekomendasikan bahwa mekanisme pengamanan stok kedelai maupun minyak kedelai bermanfaat untuk menjaga ketersediaan pangan dalam negeri. Peran aktif pemerintah dalam mengamankan stok kedelai nasional serta pengumpulan data-data tentang impor kedelai merupakan tuntutan yang mendesak. Untuk menjaga kestabilan harga dan pasokan kedelai dalam negeri perlu ada upaya untuk mendiversifikasi negara asal impor. The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect Indonesia’s imports of soybean. The study utilized time series secondary data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis. The results reveal that in the short run Indonesia’s import of soybean are influenced by Indonesia's soybean imports in the previous year, price of USA’s soybean, Argentina’s soybean oil price, and the Rupiah exchange rate. In the long run Indonesia’s imports of soybean are influenced by Argentina’s soybean oil, Indonesia GDP, and the Rupiah exchange rate. This study recommends that mechanism to maintain soybean stocks demanded is useful for food security.Therefore Government role is important in providing the accurate data on soybean stock, and diversification of the country of origin is crucial to maintain price stability and supply continuity in the country

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