scholarly journals ARBITRAGE PRICING MODEL IN RELATION TO EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESES

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 137-149
Author(s):  
Bilal Razzaq ◽  
Sabra Noveen ◽  
Adeel Mustafa ◽  
Rabia Najaf
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

The purpose of this thesis is to distinguish between efficient and inefficient markets and check the validity and efficiency of Arbitrage Pricing Theory in these markets (United States and Hong Kong). In order to distinguish between efficient and inefficient markets, Durbin Watson Autocorrelation tests were applied on 12 stock exchanges name EUROPE, HONG KONG, INDIA, TAIWAN, AMSTERDAM, MALAYSIA, UNITED STATES, CANADA, TOKYO, AUSTRALIA, AUSTRIA, and SWITZERLAND. Furthermore, the efficiency was further checked through comparison of the market and locally listed mutual funds. After the selection of Hong Kong and United States Stock Exchanges, 10 macroeconomic variables (Inflation, Short Term Interest Rate, Long Term Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Gold Prices, Oil Prices, Industrial Production Index, Market Return and Unemployment Rate were tested upon so that the APT model could be constructed. Tests like Normality and Multi-co-linearity were performed. Principle Component Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables. After all the above mentioned tests 4 variables were chosen to represent the APT in both the Hong Kong and United States Stock Exchanges. Lastly OLS Regression was applied to study the effect of these macroeconomic variables on the stock prices. The results showed that Hong Kong Stock Exchange was the most efficient while United States Stock Exchange fell in the inefficient category. The efficiency of APT was proven through the analysis of the value of R2. This value proved that when similar model of APT is applied in two different stock exchanges, the results would be more efficient in an efficient market like Hong Kong. This is the first attempt at constructing an APT Model based on the economic conditions in one country and applying the same model in a highly efficient market; in order to relate the performance of APT with market efficiency.

Penggunaan Arbitrage Pricing Theory Untuk Menganalisis Return Saham Syariah

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
Gusni Gusni ◽  
Suskim Riantani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Factor Loading ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is one of model that can be used to quantify the risk for investors in order to produce capital gain.There are two empirical models are used in implement the APT: the factor loading model (FLM) and the macro variable model (MVM). Model used in this research was MVM as used by Chen, Roll dan Ross (1986), and Chen, Hsieh dan Jordan (1997). The purpose of this study is to capture the application of APT in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) using macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate) as the determinants of Syariah stock return and found macro economics variables having powerful effect to the Syariah stock return. To achieve the objectives of this study, a total of 11 listed syariah firms of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) in Indonesia Stock Exchange were selected by using purposive sampling method from the period of 2009 to 2014. Multiple linear regression has been conducted to capture the application of APT in analized determinants of Syariah stock return. The result shows that only interest rate has effect to the syariah (JII) stock return. Meanwhile inflation and exchange rate have no effect to the syariah stock return. Emperical results clearly indicate that application of APT in justifying returns on Syariah stocks is still weak. Keywords: Arbitrage Pricing Theory, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Interest Rate, Stock Return

DO MONEY AND INTEREST RATES MATTER FOR STOCK PRICES? AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF SINGAPORE AND USA

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (01) ◽  
pp. 31-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
WING-KEUNG WONG ◽  
HABIBULLAH KHAN ◽  
JUN DU
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asian Crisis ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships ◽  
The Stability

This paper examines the long-term as well as short-term equilibrium relationships between the major stock indices and selected macroeconomic variables (such as money supply and interest rate) of Singapore and the United States by employing the advanced time series analysis techniques that include cointegration, Johansen multivariate cointegrated system, fractional cointegration and Granger causality. The cointegration results based on data covering the period January 1982 to December 2002 suggest that Singapore's stock prices generally display a long-run equilibrium relationship with interest rate and money supply (M1) but a similar relationship does not hold for the United States. To capture the short-run dynamics of the relationship, we replicate the same experiments with different subsets of data representing shorter time periods. It is evident that stock markets in Singapore moved in tandem with interest rate and money supply before the Asian Crisis of 1997, but this pattern was not observed after the crisis. In the United States, stock prices were strongly cointegrated with macroeconomic variables before the 1987 equity crisis but the relationships gradually weakened and totally disappeared with the emergence of Asian Crisis that also indirectly affected the United States. The results of fractional cointegration and the Johansen multivariate system are consistent with the earlier cointegration results that both Singapore and US stock markets did possess equilibrium relationships with M1 and interest rate at the early days. However, the stability of the systems was disturbed by a series of well-known financial turbulence in the past two decades and eventually weakened for Singapore and completely disappeared for the US. This may imply that monetary authority may take action to respond to the asset price turbulence in order to maintain the stability of monetary economy and thus break the existing equilibrium between stock markets and macroeconomic variables like interest rate and M1. Another possible explanation is that the market became more efficient after 1997 Asian crisis. Finally, the results of Granger causality tests uncover some systematic causal relationships, implying that stock market performance might be a good gauge for Central Bank's monetary policy adjustment.

The Nexus Between Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the United States Unemployment Rate Announcement: An Impulse Response Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 160-168
Author(s):  
Misheck Mutize ◽  
Victor Virimai Mugobo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South African ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
The Us

The study explores the relationship between the unemployment rate in the United States and South Africa’s stock prices from the beginning of 2013 to the last day 2017. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the US unemployment rate announcement on the South African financial market. Results of Impulse Response analysis show that there is a very minimal impact from the US unemployment announcement to South Africa’s stock prices which disappears within two days of the announcement. In addition, the Johannesburg stock exchange index marginally responds to own shocks, which marginally fades away within two days. These findings imply that the changes in the US employment policies have a direct ripple effect on the South African macroeconomic environment, its investing public sentiments and corporate confidence on the future prospects of businesses.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Per Triwulannya Periode 2016-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-877
Author(s):  
Rahmat Dewa Bagas Nugraha ◽  
H.M Nursito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that affect stock prices through appropriate ratio analysis. As for the ratio of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Researchers want to know and analyze the effect partially or simultaneously between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates on stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. The object of this research is hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The sample used in this study were 3 hotel with certain characteristics. The results of research simultaneously using the F test show that there is no influence between interest rates, inflation and exchange rates on stock prices because the calculated value is smaller than the table. Partially with the t test it can be concluded that there is no influence between interest rates on stock prices because the tcount value in the interest rate variable is smaller than the t table. Likewise, the t calculation of inflation and the exchange rate is smaller than the t table, so that there is no partial effect of the two variables on stock prices. Keywords: Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Inflation and Exchange Rates

Price Transmission and Market Openness

1998 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 215-232
Author(s):  
Lifan Wu ◽  
Asani Sarkar
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
New York Stock Exchange ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
York Stock Exchange

This paper studies the degree of impact of stock prices listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Tokyo Stock Exchange regarding price behavior in Asian stock markets. Our evidence shows that the pattern and magnitude of impact varies. Returns in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia are more sensitive than those in Taiwan, Korea and Thailand. The response patterns in the Asian markets suggest that foreign influence is significantly correlated to the degree of market openness.

The Determinants of Dim Sum Bond Liquidity

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 141-156
Author(s):  
Vasiliki Delitheou ◽  
Meng Lei ◽  
Thanos Verousis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Bid Ask Spread ◽  
Bond Liquidity ◽  
Chinese Yuan

In this paper, we offer a comprehensive analysis of the structure of the Dim Sum bond market. We show that Dim Sum bonds usually have a short maturity and that the market is dominated by issuers from the banking sector. In our analysis of the determinants of Dim Sum bond bid-ask spread, we find that both bond-specific determinants (issuance amount, maturity, and collateral), and macroeconomic variables particular to the Dim Sum bond market, influence its liquidity. The narrower Chinese yuan interest rate gap between mainland China and Hong Kong and a growing appreciation of the Chinese yuan, in addition to the fall in the Dim Sum Bond Market Yield Index, have led to improved liquidity in the market.

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