scholarly journals Formal Models of the Evolution of Scientific Theory

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolay Arkhiereev ◽  
Alexander Chernyaev
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Theory ◽  
Formal Models

scholarly journals Probability Theory and Its Models

2019 ◽  
pp. 168-181
Author(s):  
Paul Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Scientific Theory ◽  
Formal Theory ◽  
Empirical Content ◽  
Formal Models ◽  
The Status ◽  
Historical Transition ◽  
Abstract Probability

This paper argues for the status of formal probability theory as a mathematical, rather than a scientific, theory. Some remarks are made about the historical transition from Hilbert’s view of probability as a scientific theory to Kolmogorov’s view of probability as a mathematical theory. A process is provided that bridges abstract probability theory with concrete systems via mathematical models. This demonstrates that empirical content is injected into formal models via the mapping from those formal models on to elements of the concrete systems. David Freedman and Philip Stark’s concept of model-based probabilities is examined and is used as a bridge between the formal theory and applications.

The Multiple Faces of Risk-Taking

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Schmitz ◽  
Karsten Manske ◽  
Franzis Preckel ◽  
Oliver Wilhelm
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
Formal Models ◽  
Experimental Paradigm ◽  
Nomological Network ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
Parameter Recovery ◽  
Task Specificity ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Criterion Variables

Abstract. The Balloon-Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., 2002 ) is one of the most popular behavioral tasks suggested to assess risk-taking in the laboratory. Previous research has shown that the conventionally computed score is predictive, but neglects available information in the data. We suggest a number of alternative scores that are motivated by theories of risk-taking and that exploit more of the available data. These scores can be grouped around (1) risk-taking, (2) task performance, (3) impulsive decision making, and (4) reinforcement sequence modulation. Their theoretical rationale is detailed and their validity is tested within the nomological network of risk-taking, deviance, and scholastic achievement. Two multivariate studies were conducted with youths (n = 435) and with adolescents/young adults (n = 316). Additionally, we tested formal models suggested for the BART that decompose observed behavior into a set of meaningful parameters. A simulation study with parameter recovery was conducted, and the data from the two studies were reanalyzed using the models. Most scores were reliable and differentially predictive of criterion variables and may be used in basic research. However, task specificity and the generally moderate validity do not warrant use of the experimental paradigm for diagnostic purposes.

Constructing and Deconstructing Concepts

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 249-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Doan ◽  
Ronaldo Vigo
Keyword(s):  
Information Theory ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Unsupervised Classification ◽  
Family Resemblance ◽  
Category Membership ◽  
Formal Models ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Relational Patterns ◽  
Optimal Classification

Abstract. Several empirical investigations have explored whether observers prefer to sort sets of multidimensional stimuli into groups by employing one-dimensional or family-resemblance strategies. Although one-dimensional sorting strategies have been the prevalent finding for these unsupervised classification paradigms, several researchers have provided evidence that the choice of strategy may depend on the particular demands of the task. To account for this disparity, we propose that observers extract relational patterns from stimulus sets that facilitate the development of optimal classification strategies for relegating category membership. We conducted a novel constrained categorization experiment to empirically test this hypothesis by instructing participants to either add or remove objects from presented categorical stimuli. We employed generalized representational information theory (GRIT; Vigo, 2011b , 2013a , 2014 ) and its associated formal models to predict and explain how human beings chose to modify these categorical stimuli. Additionally, we compared model performance to predictions made by a leading prototypicality measure in the literature.

Influential individuals: Approach to modeling

2018 ◽  
pp. 114-131
Author(s):  
O. Yu. Bondarenko
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Status ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Formal Models ◽  
Leader Influence ◽  
Learning Game ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Asymmetric Interactions ◽  
Influential Individuals

his article explores theoretical and experimental approach to modeling social interactions. Communication and exchange of information with other people affect individual’s behavior in numerous areas. Generally, such influence is exerted by leaders, outstanding individuals who have a higher social status or expert knowledge. Social interactions are analyzed in the models of social learning, game theoretic models, conformity models, etc. However, there is a lack of formal models of asymmetric interactions. Such models could help elicit certain qualities characterizing higher social status and perception of status by other individuals, find the presence of leader influence and analyze its mechanism.

The Black Swan: Yeats and the Science of the Unknown

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 350-359
Author(s):  
Aoife Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Scientific Theory ◽  
Black Swan ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Universal History ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Wave Particle Duality ◽  
Paradigmatic Change

This essay views science as a creative mask for the poetry and philosophy of W.B. Yeats. It explores the changing worldview which occurred at the beginning of the twentieth century with the discovery of wave-particle duality by Max Planck in 1900. It considers the new concepts of reality which arose at this time in relation to modernism and Yeats's response to the paradigmatic change of era he was a part of. Accordingly, the poet's understanding of universal history in A Vision (1925, 1937) is used alongside close readings of his poetry to evince an argument which unites that poetry with philosophy, scientific theory, and modernism as aspects of one universe of knowledge which refracts different aspects of itself through the prism of time.

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