scholarly journals Volatility of Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Pakistan: The Structure and Interdependence in Regional Markets

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 813-828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Mustafa ◽  
Mohammed Nishat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Managed Floating ◽  
The Impact

Pakistan follows the flexible exchange rate system since July 2000. Prior to this period it followed a managed floating exchange rate since 1982 and a fixed rate prior to 1982. Due to controlled exchange rate a little fluctuation in exchange rate was observed. It is empirical concluded that the Pakistan’s share of exports in world market did not indicate any significant change during fixed and managed floating exchange rate regimes [Kumar and Dhawan (1991)]. Pakistan’s share in world exports was stable during the last 24 years, ranging between a minimum of 0.12 percent in 1980 and a maximum of 0.18 percent in 1992. After introduction of floating exchange rate during 2002-2003 (the share was 0.17 percent) Pakistan’s exports performance was related to the volatility of exchange rate. Only one empirical study is available regarding to Pakistan’s context by Kumar and Dhawan (1991) who estimated the impact of exchange rate volatility on Pakistan exports to the developed world from 1974 to 1985. They found that volatility of exchange rate adversely effect on export demand. They also investigated the third country effect and suggested that Japan and West Germany act as the alternate market for Pakistan’s export to the United States and United Kingdom. The high degree of volatility and uncertainty of exchange movements observed in Pakistan is of great concern of policy-makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on Pakistan’s volume of trade. In many countries it is experienced that higher exchange rate volatility reduced the trade by creating uncertainty about future profit from exports.

Exchange Rate and Industry-Level Energy Import

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-86
Author(s):  
Abdul Sahib ◽  
Sergey Prosekov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Impact

After the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1973, the free-floating exchange rate, the rate determined by the forces of supply and demand, began, which developed an interest in the area of many researchers to investigate, theoretically and empirically, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the world trade flows. There are two channels, direct and indirect, through which the change in exchange rate affects domestic prices. Under the direct channel, a fall in exchange rate leads to increase in imports as well as increases the prices of inputs in domestic currency. Secondly, under the indirect channel, a decline in the exchange rate triggers the availability of domestic goods to foreign buyers at a cheaper rate, and the demand for domestic products increased. Thus, the change in exchange rate affects trade flows either positively or negatively.

MANAGING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE, 1994–2003

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (04) ◽  
pp. 543-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER WILSON ◽  
HENRY SHANG REN NG
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The Us ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper looks at how Singapore's exchange rate regime has coped with exchange rate volatility, by comparing the performance of Singapore's actual regime in minimizing the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar with some counterfactual regimes and the corresponding performance of eight other East Asian countries. In contrast to previous counterfactual exercises, we apply a more disaggregated methodology for the trade weights, a larger number of trade partners and ARCH/GARCH techniques to capture the time-varying characteristics of volatility. Our findings confirm that Singapore's managed floating exchange rate system has delivered relatively low currency volatility. Although there are gains in volatility reduction for all countries in the sample from the adoption of either a unilateral or a common basket peg, particularly post-Asian crisis, these gains are relatively low for Singapore, largely because of low actual volatility. There are additional gains for non-dollar peggers from stabilizing intra-east Asian exchange rates against the dollar if they were to adopt a basket peg, especially post-crisis, but the gains for Singapore are again relatively modest. Finally, the conclusion from previous counterfactual studies that there is little difference between a unilateral basket peg and a common basket peg in terms of stability reduction is confirmed.

Exchange rate volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria: An empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Sa’ad Babatunde Akanbi ◽  
Halimah Adedayo Alagbe ◽  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Musibau Hammed Oluwaseyi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

The adoption of a flexible exchange rate system since 1986 in Nigeria has made the country witnessed varying rate of the naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar. This paper examines exchange rate volatility with ARCH model and its various extensions (GARCH, TGARCH, and EGARCH) using quarterly exchange rate series from 1986-Q1 to 2014-Q4.The impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports was also examined using Error Correction Model (ECM) with two different measures of volatility. The results obtained confirm the existence of exchange rate volatility and also found a significant negative effect on non-oil export performance in Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should ensure an appropriate policy mix that not only ensures a stable and realistic exchange rate but also conducive atmosphere for production and exportation.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSAL DINAMIS ANTARA VARIABEL-VARIABEL MONETER UTAMA DAN OUTPUT: KASUS INDONESIA DI BAWAH SISTEM NILAI TUKAR MENGAMBANG DAN MENGAMBANG TERKENDALI

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Latif Kharie
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Managed Floating ◽  
Floating Exchange Rates

The objective of the study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship pattern and the characteristic among the primary monetary variables and output under a different exchange rate systems, i.e the floating and managed floating exchange rate system. The model formulated on this study is based on Taylor rule, state contingent rule, and some theories such as monetary transmission mechanism, exchange rate determination, and Keynes’s demand for money and its augmented models.The type of the study is explanatory research. Variables analyzed consists of real interest rates of Sertifikat Bank Indonesia, real money supply, real exchange rates of rupiah to American dollar, prices and real output. The data used was monthly time series. Sources of data are Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik and International Monetary Fund reports, and analyzed for two different periods of observation. The vector error correction model is used as a quantitative model, focuses on the impulse response function analysis.The results of impulse response function indicate that: (i) the response of monetary policy to changes of real output and price under the floating exchange rate system is positive, and to changes of real exchange rate and price under the managed floating exchange system is also positive; (ii) the response of price to changes of real interest rate, real money supply, real exchange rate and real output under the floating exchange rate system are negative, negative, positive and negative respectively, whereas under the managed floating exchange rates system are negative, positive, negative and positive respectively; and (iii) the response of real output to change of real interest rate under the floating exchange rates system is positive but it is negative under the managed floating exchange rates system.Keywords: dynamic causal relation, primary monetary variables, output, floating rates system, managed floating exchange rates systemJEL Classification: C32, E52, O24

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Exports in Vietnam: A Bounds Testing Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy ◽  
Duong Trinh Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in Vietnam using quarterly data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2014. The paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the analysis of level relationships between effective exchange rate volatility and exports. Using the demand function of exports, the paper also considers the effect of depreciation and foreign income on exports of Vietnam. The results show that exchange rate volatility negatively affects the export volume in the long run, as expected. A depreciation of the domestic currency affects exports negatively in the short run, but positively in the long run, consistent with the J curve effect. Surprisingly, an increase in the real income of a foreign country actually decreases Vietnamese export volume. These findings suggest some policy implications in managing the exchange rate system and promoting exports of Vietnam.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Stability

2010 ◽  
pp. 29-43
Author(s):  
S. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Managed Floating

The Bank of Russia intends to introduce inflation targeting policy and exchange rate free floating regime in three years. Exogenous shocks absorption which stabilizes the real sector of economy is usually considered to be one of the advantages of free floating exchange rate policy. However, our research based on the analysis of 25 world largest economies exchange rates and industrial production during the crisis of 2008-2009 does not confirm this hypothesis. The article also analyzes additional risks associated with free floating exchange rate regime in Russia and presents some arguments in favor of managed floating exchange rate regime.

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