Exchange rate volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria: An empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Sa’ad Babatunde Akanbi ◽  
Halimah Adedayo Alagbe ◽  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Musibau Hammed Oluwaseyi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

The adoption of a flexible exchange rate system since 1986 in Nigeria has made the country witnessed varying rate of the naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar. This paper examines exchange rate volatility with ARCH model and its various extensions (GARCH, TGARCH, and EGARCH) using quarterly exchange rate series from 1986-Q1 to 2014-Q4.The impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports was also examined using Error Correction Model (ECM) with two different measures of volatility. The results obtained confirm the existence of exchange rate volatility and also found a significant negative effect on non-oil export performance in Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should ensure an appropriate policy mix that not only ensures a stable and realistic exchange rate but also conducive atmosphere for production and exportation.

scholarly journals EFEK KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN PADA VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-45
Author(s):  
Wayrohi Meilvidiri ◽  
Syahruddin Syahruddin ◽  
Romualdus Turu Putra Maro Djanggo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study uses the q to q dataset for the period 2011-2018, to examine the effect of trade openness on the exchange rate, on the other hand variable money supply, inflation and GDP growth and high-low exchange rates (dummy) will smooth the impact of shocks to the exchange rate . Using the OLS econometric estimator to see the effect of variables and the ARCH method to measure the uncertainty of exchange rate movements. Estimation results show that trade openness (open trade index); the money supply (money supply) and the high-low peak value of the exchange rate have a significant positive effect while the growth variable has a significant negative effect on exchange rate volatility. The LM test simultaneously found ARCH in residual data in lag 1 and lag 2. The normality test found abnormal residuals, while the residual heteroscedasticity test showed no ARCH problems in the last residuals.

Exchange Rate and Industry-Level Energy Import

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-86
Author(s):  
Abdul Sahib ◽  
Sergey Prosekov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Level Energy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Impact

After the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1973, the free-floating exchange rate, the rate determined by the forces of supply and demand, began, which developed an interest in the area of many researchers to investigate, theoretically and empirically, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the world trade flows. There are two channels, direct and indirect, through which the change in exchange rate affects domestic prices. Under the direct channel, a fall in exchange rate leads to increase in imports as well as increases the prices of inputs in domestic currency. Secondly, under the indirect channel, a decline in the exchange rate triggers the availability of domestic goods to foreign buyers at a cheaper rate, and the demand for domestic products increased. Thus, the change in exchange rate affects trade flows either positively or negatively.

Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavio Vilela Vieira ◽  
Ronald MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical methodology is based on System GMM estimation for a set of 106 countries for the period of 2000-2011. Findings – For the complete sample of countries and for a set of developing/emerging economies, there is evidence that an increase (decrease) in REER volatility reduces (increases) export volume. The results are not robust once the oil export countries are removed from the sample. The estimated coefficients for the financial crisis dummy are positive and statistically significant, indicating that export volume were 0.14 percent higher after the financial crisis of 2008 compared to the previous period (2000-2007). There is also evidence that the export volume is price (REER) and income (trade weighted) inelastic. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results are valid for the complete set of countries and for developing and emerging economies when including the oil export countries, suggesting that countries should reduce exchange rate volatility in order to foster their export volume and that oil export countries have an important role on these results. Practical implications – The paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to minimize exchange rate volatility if they seek to increase export volume. The international financial crisis had a significant impact on export volume in all estimated models regardless of the set of countries used. Originality/value – One of the main novelties of this work is that it deals with possible endogeneity using GMM estimators and addresses the issue of instrument proliferation, which is not a common feature of previous empirical studies on exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Another original aspect of the research is the construction of trade weighted variables for foreign income and REER based on the major 20 export partners for each country used in the panel data estimation. The work also incorporates the years following the international financial crisis of 2008, which is an additional empirical novelty, in order to address the impact of the international financial crisis on the export volume.

عائد الإصدار النقدي في ظل نظام سعر الصرف المرن في العراق للمدة (1990-2003)

2021 ◽  
Vol 2020 (67) ◽  
pp. 132-153
Author(s):  
رسل كاظم جعفر ◽  
أ. م. د. عبد الرسول علي حسين
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The Third ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Monetary Issue ◽  
Monetary Return ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study deals with the relationship between the flexible exchange rate system and the return on the monetary issue, in other words, it tries to clarify the extent of the impact of adopting the flexible exchange rate system on the monetary return that the government can get. Therefore, this study came divided into three sections, the first topic dealt with the concept of the flexible exchange rate, while the second topic dealt with the concept of the return on the cash issue and methods of measuring it, and the third section reviews the size of the return on the cash issue achieved by the government if it follows the flexible exchange rate system. Keywords: yield on the cash issue, flexible exchange rate system, inflation tax, opportunity cost.

Openness-inflation Nexus in alternative monetary regimes

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-Chien Lin ◽  
Ho-Chuan Huang ◽  
Xiaojian Liu
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Developing And Developed Countries

AbstractBy applying an endogenous switching regression model to a sample of 64 countries, this article explores whether the effect of trade openness on inflation is influenced by the adoption of inflation targeting (IT). The outcome indicates that, while there exists a significant and negative impact of trade openness on inflation in the non-IT countries with flexible exchange rate system, the effect is negligible in the IT economies. In addition, the above differential inflation effect of trade openness across IT and non-IT regimes is only present in the developing subsample with flexible exchange rate system, but not the developed counterpart. Moreover, apart from trade openness, financial openness reinforces inflation in those developing countries not adopting IT, whereas no such significant effect is found in developing countries adopting IT. Instead of inflation, further results show that trade openness lowers inflation volatility both in developing and developed countries not adopting IT, yet the impact is smaller in developed country group. However, no such statistically significant link is found in developing and developed countries that adopt IT.

scholarly journals THE EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF INDONESIA'S EXPORTS TO JAPAN AND THE US

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-70
Author(s):  
Shinta Fitrianti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of the exchange rate volatility onIndonesia’s real exports to its major trading partners; Japan and US. The study uses monthly data from January 1998 to October 2015 in order to capture the structural break period of the Global Financial Crisis 2008. In addition, commodity price is included as an explanatory variable. The index of exchange rate volatility is generated using moving sample standard deviation of the growth of the real exchange rate. This paper estimates the long-run cointegration using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, while for the short-run dynamic this paper use error-correction-model (ECM). The findings suggest rupiah volatility against the Japanese yen reduces Indonesia’s export to Japan, both in the short and the long-run. Fluctuation of rupiah against the US dollar helps Indonesia’s export to the US in the short run, but the impact is not carried out to the long-run. On the other hand, the impact of commodity price shock is negligible, except for the long-run export to Japan.

The effects of real exchange rate volatility on sectoral export flows under intermediate and flexible exchange rate regimes: Empirical evidence from Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 172-184
Author(s):  
Bahar Erdal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

The aim of this paper is to analyse empirically the effects of real exchange rate volatility on sectoral exports in Turkey under intermediate and flexible exchange rate regimes. The cointegration test and error correction models are used to test the long-run relationship and short-run effects, respectively. The estimation results show that the real exchange rate volatility has negative and significant effects on sectoral exports in both intermediate and flexible exchange rate regimes. These empirical results are consistent with the theory. However, the impact of real exchange rate and foreign income appeared to be quite different for the two exchange rate regimes. Further, research is required to analyse the impacts of real exchange rate and foreign income on sectoral exports. Keywords: Real exchange rate volatility, real exchange rate, intermediate exchange rate regime, flexible exchange rate regime, sectoral export.

scholarly journals Volatility of Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Pakistan: The Structure and Interdependence in Regional Markets

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 813-828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Mustafa ◽  
Mohammed Nishat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Managed Floating ◽  
The Impact

Pakistan follows the flexible exchange rate system since July 2000. Prior to this period it followed a managed floating exchange rate since 1982 and a fixed rate prior to 1982. Due to controlled exchange rate a little fluctuation in exchange rate was observed. It is empirical concluded that the Pakistan’s share of exports in world market did not indicate any significant change during fixed and managed floating exchange rate regimes [Kumar and Dhawan (1991)]. Pakistan’s share in world exports was stable during the last 24 years, ranging between a minimum of 0.12 percent in 1980 and a maximum of 0.18 percent in 1992. After introduction of floating exchange rate during 2002-2003 (the share was 0.17 percent) Pakistan’s exports performance was related to the volatility of exchange rate. Only one empirical study is available regarding to Pakistan’s context by Kumar and Dhawan (1991) who estimated the impact of exchange rate volatility on Pakistan exports to the developed world from 1974 to 1985. They found that volatility of exchange rate adversely effect on export demand. They also investigated the third country effect and suggested that Japan and West Germany act as the alternate market for Pakistan’s export to the United States and United Kingdom. The high degree of volatility and uncertainty of exchange movements observed in Pakistan is of great concern of policy-makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on Pakistan’s volume of trade. In many countries it is experienced that higher exchange rate volatility reduced the trade by creating uncertainty about future profit from exports.

scholarly journals The impact of foreign exchange movements on Turkish textile sector

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (03) ◽  
pp. 291-296
Author(s):  
YUSUF KAYA ◽  
GIZEM GÜNAYDIN KARAKAN ◽  
EMILIA VISILEANU
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Firm Performance ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Firm Age ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Textile Sector

Due to importance of global supply chain and high-tech exports, importance of new developing markets is gradually increasing. Turkey keeps the strategic importance for textile sector being in the center of Balkans, Asia, Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and Russia. The geographical location allowing trade in the region makes the country much more advantageous than its competitors. However, devaluation and the exchange rate volatility of Turkish Lira in 2018 have been seriously affecting Turkish textile sector. This study aims to determine the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on Turkish textile firms’ performance between the years of 2013 and 2017. Additionally, multiple regression analysis was done in order to investigate the impact of firms’ performance such as firm age and firm size on performance of the textile firms. According to results, it was observed that exchange rate volatility had a negative effect on the firm performance and the firm size had a negative effect on firm performance while the firm age did not have any influence on firms’ performance significantly.

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