scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR KAKAO INDONESIA YANG DITINJAU DARI KEBIJAKAN PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Desy Mardiah Purnomo ◽  
Koesriwulandari Koesriwulandari ◽  
Endang Siswati
Keyword(s):  
Time Series

ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk: 1) Mengetahui volume ekspor kakaoindonesia dari tahun 1985 sampai 2017, 2) Faktor-faktor yang berpengaruhterhadap volume ekspor kakao indonesia dari tahun 1985 sampai 2017.Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder. Adapundata yang digunakan adalah data tahunan dalam bentuk time series 33 tahun,mulai dari tahun 1985 – 2017 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS),Direktorat Jendral Perkebunan, Departemen Perkebunan Pertanian, danFAOSTAT. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu metode analisisregresi linier berganda dengan dummy variabel dan analisis deskriptif.Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan terdapat pengaruh yang signifikanantara produksi kakao domestik terhadap ekspor kakao Indonesia dengan nilaitaraf signifikan yang dihasilkan sebesar 0,000 dan harga kakao dunia terhadapekspor kakao Indonesia dengan nilai taraf signifikan sebesar 0,006 yang lebihkecil dari taraf signifikan yang disyaratkan yaitu sebesar 0,05. Sedangkan hargakakao domestik terdapat pengaruh yang tidak signifikan dengan nilai tarafsignifikan yang dihasilkan sebesar 0,510 begitupun juga dengan nilai tukarsebesar 0,208 dan perjanjian internasional sebesar 0,093 lebih besar dari tarafsignifikan yang disyaratkan yaitu sebesar 0,05.Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Pengaruh Perjanjian Internasional, Regresi LinierBerganda.

The LDE-Type Flare Occurrence (1969-1993)

1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 279-282
Author(s):  
A. Antalová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fourier Analysis ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
List Type ◽  
Type Number ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Type Iv ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Cycle Maximum ◽  
Flare Index

AbstractThe occurrence of LDE-type flares in the last three cycles has been investigated. The Fourier analysis spectrum was calculated for the time series of the LDE-type flare occurrence during the 20-th, the 21-st and the rising part of the 22-nd cycle. LDE-type flares (Long Duration Events in SXR) are associated with the interplanetary protons (SEP and STIP as well), energized coronal archs and radio type IV emission. Generally, in all the cycles considered, LDE-type flares mainly originated during a 6-year interval of the respective cycle (2 years before and 4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum). The following significant periodicities were found:• in the 20-th cycle: 1.4, 2.1, 2.9, 4.0, 10.7 and 54.2 of month,• in the 21-st cycle: 1.2, 1.6, 2.8, 4.9, 7.8 and 44.5 of month,• in the 22-nd cycle, till March 1992: 1.4, 1.8, 2.4, 7.2, 8.7, 11.8 and 29.1 of month,• in all interval (1969-1992):a)the longer periodicities: 232.1, 121.1 (the dominant at 10.1 of year), 80.7, 61.9 and 25.6 of month,b)the shorter periodicities: 4.7, 5.0, 6.8, 7.9, 9.1, 15.8 and 20.4 of month.Fourier analysis of the LDE-type flare index (FI) yields significant peaks at 2.3 - 2.9 months and 4.2 - 4.9 months. These short periodicities correspond remarkably in the all three last solar cycles. The larger periodicities are different in respective cycles.

Automatic Identification of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Time Series

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin-Sheng Alan Kang ◽  
David D. Bedworth ◽  
Dwayne A. Rollier
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Automatic Identification ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Smoothing Facilitates the Detection of Coupled Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joni Kettunen ◽  
Niklas Ravaja ◽  
Liisa Keltikangas-Järvinen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Type I Error ◽  
Electrodermal Activity ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Type I ◽  
Facial Electromyography ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Smoothing Methods ◽  
Response Systems ◽  
Different Response

Abstract We examined the use of smoothing to enhance the detection of response coupling from the activity of different response systems. Three different types of moving average smoothers were applied to both simulated interbeat interval (IBI) and electrodermal activity (EDA) time series and to empirical IBI, EDA, and facial electromyography time series. The results indicated that progressive smoothing increased the efficiency of the detection of response coupling but did not increase the probability of Type I error. The power of the smoothing methods depended on the response characteristics. The benefits and use of the smoothing methods to extract information from psychophysiological time series are discussed.

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