Peluang, Peubah Acak Diskrit, dan Sebaran Peluang Peubah Acak Diskrit

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sudi Pratikno
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Discrete Random Variable ◽  
Discrete Random Variables

Probability to learn someone's chance in getting or winning an event. In the discrete random variable is more identical to repeated experiments, to form a pattern. Discrete random variables can be calculated as the probability distribution by calculating each value that might get a certain probability value.

A storage process by semi-Markov input

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 830-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lajos Takács
Keyword(s):  
Recurrence Formula ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Discrete Random Variable ◽  
Storage Process ◽  
Markov Sequence ◽  
Discrete Random Variables ◽  
Matrix Factorisation

A sequence of random variables η0, η1, …, ηn, … is defined by the recurrence formula ηn = max (ηn–1 + ξn, 0) where η0 is a discrete random variable taking on non-negative integers only and ξ1, ξ2, … ξn, … is a semi-Markov sequence of discrete random variables taking on integers only. Define Δ as the smallest n = 1, 2, … for which ηn = 0. The random variable ηn can be interpreted as the content of a dam at time t = n(n = 0, 1, 2, …) and Δ as the time of first emptiness. This paper deals with the determination of the distributions of ηn and Δ by using the method of matrix factorisation.

A storage process by semi-Markov input

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (04) ◽  
pp. 830-844
Author(s):  
Lajos Takács
Keyword(s):  
Recurrence Formula ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Discrete Random Variable ◽  
Storage Process ◽  
Markov Sequence ◽  
Discrete Random Variables ◽  
Matrix Factorisation

A sequence of random variables η 0, η 1, …, ηn , … is defined by the recurrence formula ηn = max (η n–1 + ξn , 0) where η 0 is a discrete random variable taking on non-negative integers only and ξ 1, ξ 2, … ξn , … is a semi-Markov sequence of discrete random variables taking on integers only. Define Δ as the smallest n = 1, 2, … for which ηn = 0. The random variable ηn can be interpreted as the content of a dam at time t = n(n = 0, 1, 2, …) and Δ as the time of first emptiness. This paper deals with the determination of the distributions of ηn and Δ by using the method of matrix factorisation.

Introduction to Information Theory

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Vidyasagar
Keyword(s):  
Information Theory ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Relative Entropy ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Conditional Entropy ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Entropy Function ◽  
Concave Functions ◽  
Leibler Divergence

This chapter provides an introduction to some elementary aspects of information theory, including entropy in its various forms. Entropy refers to the level of uncertainty associated with a random variable (or more precisely, the probability distribution of the random variable). When there are two or more random variables, it is worthwhile to study the conditional entropy of one random variable with respect to another. The last concept is relative entropy, also known as the Kullback–Leibler divergence, which measures the “disparity” between two probability distributions. The chapter first considers convex and concave functions before discussing the properties of the entropy function, conditional entropy, uniqueness of the entropy function, and the Kullback–Leibler divergence.

A FUZZY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON THE TRANSFORMATION BETWEEN DISCRETE FUZZY VARIABLES AND DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

2006 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 25-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUGE DONG ◽  
AINAN WANG
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Variable ◽  
Fuzzy Random Variable ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Discrete Random Variable ◽  
Fuzzy Reliability ◽  
Fuzzy Variables ◽  
Discrete Random Variables ◽  
Fuzzy Random

When fuzzy information is taken into consideration in design, it is difficult to analyze the reliability of machine parts because we usually must deal with random information and fuzzy information simultaneously. Therefore, in order to make it easy to analyze fuzzy reliability, this paper proposes the transformation between discrete fuzzy random variable and discrete random variable based on a fuzzy reliability analysis when one of the stress and strength is a discrete fuzzy variable and the other is a discrete random variable. The transformation idea put forwards in this paper can be extended to continuous case, and can also be used in the fuzzy reliability analysis of repairable system.

scholarly journals Probabalistic modelling of the results of economic activity as a function of random values

2020 ◽  
pp. 102-112
Author(s):  
Olesya Martyniuk ◽  
Stepan Popina ◽  
Serhii Martyniuk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Research Results

Introduction. Mathematical modeling of economic processes is necessary for the unambiguous formulation and solution of the problem. In the economic sphere this is the most important aspect of the activity of any enterprise, for which economic-mathematical modeling is the tool that allows to make adequate decisions. However, economic indicators that are factors of a model are usually random variables. An economic-mathematical model is proposed for calculating the probability distribution function of the result of economic activity on the basis of the known dependence of this result on factors influencing it and density of probability distribution of these factors. Methods. The formula was used to calculate the random variable probability distribution function, which is a function of other independent random variables. The method of estimation of basic numerical characteristics of the investigated functions of random variables is proposed: mathematical expectation that in the probabilistic sense is the average value of the result of functioning of the economic structure, as well as its variance. The upper bound of the variation of the effective feature is indicated. Results. The cases of linear and power functions of two independent variables are investigated. Different cases of two-dimensional domain of possible values of indicators, which are continuous random variables, are considered. The application of research results to production functions is considered. Examples of estimating the probability distribution function of a random variable are offered. Conclusions. The research results allow in the probabilistic sense to estimate the result of the economic structure activity on the basis of the probabilistic distributions of the values of the dependent variables. The prospect of further research is to apply indirect control over economic performance based on economic and mathematical modeling.

scholarly journals Theorizing Probability Distribution in Applied Statistics

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
Indra Malakar
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Identical Condition ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fixed Number ◽  
Theoretical Knowledge ◽  
Applied Statistics ◽  
Discrete Random Variable

This paper investigates into theoretical knowledge on probability distribution and the application of binomial, poisson and normal distribution. Binomial distribution is widely used discrete random variable when the trails are repeated under identical condition for fixed number of times and when there are only two possible outcomes whereas poisson distribution is for discrete random variable for which the probability of occurrence of an event is small and the total number of possible cases is very large and normal distribution is limiting form of binomial distribution and used when the number of cases is infinitely large and probabilities of success and failure is almost equal.

scholarly journals Efficient Optimal Approximation of Discrete Random Variables for Estimation of Probabilities of Missing Deadlines

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 7809-7815
Author(s):  
Liat Cohen ◽  
Gera Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Computational Complexity ◽  
Efficient Algorithm ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Optimal Approximation ◽  
Discrete Random Variable ◽  
Kolmogorov Distance ◽  
Main Application ◽  
Discrete Random Variables ◽  
In Series

We present an efficient algorithm that, given a discrete random variable X and a number m, computes a random variable whose support is of size at most m and whose Kolmogorov distance from X is minimal. We present some variants of the algorithm, analyse their correctness and computational complexity, and present a detailed empirical evaluation that shows how they performs in practice. The main application that we examine, which is our motivation for this work, is estimation of the probability of missing deadlines in series-parallel schedules. Since exact computation of these probabilities is NP-hard, we propose to use the algorithms described in this paper to obtain an approximation.

scholarly journals Reliability analysis of planar steel trusses based on p-box models

Vestnik MGSU ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 153-167
Author(s):  
Anastasia A. Soloveva ◽  
Sergey A. Solovev
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Load Model ◽  
Box Models

Introduction. The development of probabilistic approaches to the assessment of mechanical safety of bearing structural elements is one of the most relevant areas of research in the construction industry. In this research, probabilistic methods are developed to perform the reliability analysis of steel truss elements using the p-box (probability box) approach. This approach ensures a more conservative (interval-based) reliability assessment made within the framework of attaining practical objectives of the reliability analysis of planar trusses and their elements. The truss is analyzed as a provisional sequential mechanical system (in the language of the theory of reliability) consisting of elements that represent reliability values for each individual bar and truss node in terms of all criteria of limit states. Materials and methods. The co-authors suggest using p-blocks consisting of two boundary distribution functions designated for modeling random variables in the mathematical models of limit states performed within the framework of the truss reliability analysis instead of independent true functions of the probability distribution of random variables. Boundary distribution functions produce a probability distribution domain in which a true distribution function of a random variable is located. However this function is unknown in advance due to the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The choice of a p-block for modeling a random variable will depend on the type and amount of statistical information about the random variable. Results. The probabilistic snow load model and the numerical simulation of tests of steel samples of truss rods are employed to show that p-box models are optimal for modeling random variables to solve numerous practical problems of the probabilistic assessment of reliability of structural elements. The proposed p-box snow load model is based on the Gumbel distribution. The mathematical model used to perform the reliability analysis of planar steel truss elements is proposed. The co-authors provide calculation formulas to assess the reliability of a truss element for different types of p-blocks used to describe random variables depending on the amount of statistical data available. Conclusions. The application of statistically unsubstantiated hypotheses for choosing the probability distribution law or assessing the parameters of the probability distribution of a random variable leads to erroneous assessments of the reliability of structural elements, including trusses. P-boxes ensure a more careful reliability assessment of a structural element, but at the same time this assessment is less informative, as it is presented in the form of an interval. A more accurate reliability interval requires interval-based assessments of distribution parameters or types of p-boxes applied to mathematical models of the limit state, which entails an increase in the economic and labor costs of the statistical data.

scholarly journals Analysis of the folded normal distribution of a random variable

2021 ◽  
pp. 111-122
Author(s):  
Степан Алексеевич Рогонов ◽  
Илья Сергеевич Солдатенко
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Practical Solution ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Actual Error ◽  
Folded Normal Distribution

Анализ поведения случайных величин после различных преобразований можно применять при решении многих нетривиальных задач. В частности, решения, которые невозможно выразить аналитически, с точки зрения практической применимости способны давать результаты с точностью, достаточной для вычислений, вынося невыразимую невязку аналитического решения далеко за рамки требуемой погрешности. В настоящей работе исследовано поведение модуля нормально распределенной случайной величины и выяснено, при каких условиях можно пренебречь операцией взятия абсолютного значения и аппроксимировать модуль случайной величины {\it похожим} распределением вероятностей. The analysis of the behavior of random variables after various transformations can be used in the practical solution of many non-trivial problems. In particular, solutions that cannot be expressed purely analytically, from the point of view of practical applicability, are able to give results with accuracy sufficient for real calculations, taking the inexpressible discrepancy of the analytical solution far beyond the actual error. In this paper, the behavior of the modulus of a normally distributed random variable is investigated and it is found out under what conditions it is possible to neglect the operation of taking an absolute value and approximate the modulus of a random variable with a {\it similar} probability distribution.

Structural Reliability Analysis of Composite Advanced Sail for Virginia Class Submarine

2008 ◽  
Vol 52 (03) ◽  
pp. 165-174
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Eamon ◽  
Masoud Rais-Rohani
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Plane Shear ◽  
Reliability Indices

A structural reliability model is developed for a large composite submarine sail structure. Random variables include material strength and stiffness properties as well as load. Limit states are formulated in terms of material strength parameters and buckling resistance. A series system reliability model that bases structural performance on first component failure is used. A total of 205 random variables and 117 limit states compose the structural system model. Most component reliability indices ranged from 3 to 7, with overall system failure governed by material in-plane shear with a reliability index of 1.84. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis determined that load and material strength were the most significant random variables, while material stiffness parameters were unimportant. Significant computational effort was saved by reducing the number of random variables to the most influential set. The effects of correlation and random variable probability distribution were explored. It was found that correlation has little effect on results, but probability distribution is significant. Recommendations are made to improve performance.

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