scholarly journals When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominika Ehrenbergerova ◽  
Josef Bajzik ◽  
Tomas Havranek

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

2010 ◽  
Vol 92 (7) ◽  
pp. 569-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha Quinn ◽  
Robert J Drummond ◽  
Fiona Ross ◽  
Juliette Murray ◽  
John Murphy ◽  
...  

INTRODUCTION Pre-operative anaemia is well recognised in patients presenting with colorectal cancer (CRC). While the benefits of long-term FeSO4 supplementation on Fe deficiency anaemia are well established, it is not known if short-course supplementation (2–3 weeks) impacts significantly on pre-operative haemoglobin (Hb) levels. This study examines the impact of short-term, oral FeSO4 supplementation on patients undergoing surgery for CRC. PATIENTS AND METHODS All patients with CRC presenting to a single surgeon were included. At diagnosis, baseline Hb and blood film were checked on all patients who then received 200 mg tds of FeSO4. Haemoglobin was rechecked pre-operatively and daily postoperatively. Patients requiring pre-operative blood transfusions were excluded from analysis. RESULTS Between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2006, 117 patients were identified, 14 of whom were excluded. Patients received a median of 39 days’ treatment with FeSO4. Fifty-eight (56.3%) patients were anaemic at presentation gaining a mean of 1.73 g/dl (P < 0.001) from short-course FeSO4 supplementation. Right-sided tumours (lower mean Hb at presentation; P = 0.008) responded more to FeSO4 when compared to left-sided tumours (P < 0.017). Increase in Hb was unrelated to pathological stage. The transfusion rate for all curative resections was 0.69 units/patient. For the historical cohort (patients undergoing curative resection between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2003), the mean transfusion rate fell from 1.69 units/patient. CONCLUSIONS Routine short-course supplementation with iron offers improved pre-operative Hb prior to surgery in CRC, especially in right-sided lesions and those with presenting anaemia.


Author(s):  
O. Emre Ergungor

Statistical models that estimate 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread have been around for many years. However, the reliability of the term spread as a predictor may have been affected by short-term interest rates being at zero. At the zero lower bound, long-term yields cannot go too far into negative territory due to the portfolio constraints of institutional investors. Therefore, the yield curve may not invert when it should or as much as it should despite the anticipated path of the economy. I enhance the simple model with two variables that should have predictive power for recessions.


2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faridsky Faridsky ◽  
Syarwani Canon ◽  
Boby Rantow Payu

This study aims to determine the impact of monetary policy and FDI on economic growth and discuss it. The monetary indicator variables used are inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. The data used in this study are secondary data in 1990-2019 sourced from data from the Central Bureau of National Statistics and the World Bank. The analysis model in this study uses Multiple Linear Regression with the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis model. The results of the analysis show that in the long term monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) have a significant effect on economic growth. And in the short term FDI has a significant effect on economic growth. It is concluded that monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) are the main variables that affect economic growth in the long and short term.


Author(s):  
Kurt G. Lunsford

An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Professional forecasters did not predict the beginning of the yield curve inversions prior to the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2008–2009 recessions. In all three cases, professional forecasters failed to predict the magnitude of the rise in short-term interest rates. Prior to the 2008–2009 recession, forecasters also overpredicted long-term interest rates.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 4090-4090
Author(s):  
Przemyslaw Kosinski ◽  
Paula Croal ◽  
Jackie Leung ◽  
Suzan Williams ◽  
Andrea Kassner

Abstract Introduction: Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is an inherited blood disorder, afflicting 1 in 400 African Americans, clinically characterized by hemolytic anemia, painful vaso-occlusive crises and endothelial dysfunction resulting in chronic organ damage.1 Hydroxyurea (HU) is a myelosuppressive agent that has been shown to reduce the number of vaso-occlusive crises, acute chest syndromes, blood transfusions and hospital admissions and is currently being investigated as an alternative to transfusion therapy for primary stroke prevention.2,3 HU's protective properties are primarily thought to be a result of its ability to increase HbF levels, which reduces sickle hemoglobin polymerization.4 However, HU requires a minimum of 3-6 months for sufficient HbF induction and previous studies have shown improved clinical performance well before a detectable rise in HbF.3,4 The HbF-independent clinical improvement is hypothesized to be a result of HU acting as a nitric oxide (NO) donor, a potent vasodilator, whose bioavailability is reduced in SCD.5,6 Reduced NO has a direct effect on the dilation of cerebral vessels, which warrants investigation into the impact of HU treatment length on cerebral hemodynamics. To assess cerebral hemodynamics we obtained dynamic MR measurements of cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR), which reflect the capacity of vascular endothelia to dilate in the presence of a vasoactive stimulus. In addition, we also obtained CBF data using arterial-spin labelling (ASL) to assess its relationship to CVR. We hypothesized that CVR will be higher in long-term HU-treated patients compared to short-term HU-treated patients. Furthermore, we hypothesized that CBF will be inversely correlated with CVR and will be lower in patients on long-term HU compared to short-term HU-treated patients. Methods: 21 Patients (11M/10F; avg age 14±2.45) with no history of stroke, were imaged on a 3T MRI system. 15 patients were on HU for more than 1 year (long-term) and 6 were on HU less than 5 months (short-term). The hematocrit of both groups was similar. CVR data of the entire brain was obtained using a standard blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) MRI sequence in combination with a CO2 breathing challenge. CO2 was delivered via a re-breathing mask in 4 alternating cycles of 40 mmHg PETCO2 for 60 seconds and 45mmHg PETCO2 for 45 seconds. Correlations of voxel-based BOLD changes to end-tidal CO2 waveforms were analyzed using FSL v4.1 and yielded CVR maps that were co-registered to anatomical images. CBF was obtained with a standard pulsed ASL protocol and was quantified from the mean signal difference between ASL tag and control images using a kinetic model. The Student's t-test was used to assess whether the mean global CVR and CBF were significantly different (p<0.05) between patients on short-term and long-term HU treatment. Results: Global CVR was significantly higher in long-term HU-treated patients compared to short-term HU-treated patients (p=0.034) [Figure 1]. However, global CBF was significantly higher in long-term HU-treated patients compared to short-term HU-treated patients (p=0.032) [Figure 2]. Conclusions: As expected, long-term HU-treated patients had higher CVR compared to the short-term HU-treated patients. This could be due to the rise in HbF which reduces sickling, thereby buffering the impact of hemolysis-associated endothelial dysfunction thereby increasing NO more compared to the short-term group. However, CBF in long-term HU-treated patients was significantly higher compared to the short-term treated patients. This was unexpected and not in line with our previous studies, which have shown that CVR is inversely correlated with CBF, both in children with SCD as well as healthy controls, which is characteristic of functioning endothelia. The increase in both CVR and CBF in long-term HU-treated patients may indicate an uncoupling of CVR and CBF, which could be exacerbated with continued treatment and should be monitored. However, further studies are needed to verify this. Figure 1. Effect of HU treatment on CVR Figure 1. Effect of HU treatment on CVR Figure 2. Effect of HU treatment on CBF Figure 2. Effect of HU treatment on CBF References 1. Switzer J, et al. Lancet Neurol. 2006;5:501-5012. 2. Rodgers GP, et al. N Engl J Med. 1990; 322:1037–1045. 3. Charache S, et al. N Engl J Med. 1995;332:1317– 1322. 4. Halsey C, et al. Br J Haematol. 2003;120: 177-186. 5. Nahavandi M, et al. Hematology. 2000;5:235–239. 6. Morris C, et al. J Pediat Hematol Onc. 2003;28:629-634. Disclosures Off Label Use: Hydroxyurea is FDA approved for adults with HbSS. However, it is prescribed off-label at the Hospital for Sick Children for children with HbSS. .


2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Le Roux ◽  
B Ismail

Even though econometric models and yield curve analysis are useful in assessing the impact of interest rate changes on the economic structure, their power to predict the magnitude and direction of swings in the business cycle is often restricted to the use of short-term interest rates. From an Austrian school perspective on interest rates, empirical evidence suggests that the profitability of heavy industries further downstream outperforms that of light industries in the initial stages of monetary easing, due to a rising demand for investment goods and a rise in capacity utilisation levels. This paper assesses the impact of interest rates changes on the productive structure of the economy by taking into account the effect thereof on sector earnings and ultimately share prices.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sowmya Subramaniam

Purpose The politically unstable economies have high and volatile sovereign spread. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on sovereign bond yields. Design/methodology/approach The sovereign yields at various maturities were decomposed into three factors, namely, level, slope and curvature, using the Dynamic Nelson Siegel model. The relationship between geopolitical uncertainty and the yield curve factors was examined using a quantile causality test. Findings The study found that at the extreme high-rate regime, geopolitical uncertainty causes the yield curve factors positively, indicating bond investors demand a higher return for geopolitical uncertainty. On the other hand, during extreme low-rate regime geopolitical causes the short- and medium-term factors negatively. The extreme low-rate regime indicates the period of economic slowdown. During this regime, the central banks try to reduce the short-term rates to stimulate growth. Originality/value This is one of the few papers that investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields at the various maturities and interest rate regimes. Understanding the relationship between the geopolitical risk and short-term rates would help the central banks the efficacy of their policy actions. The long-term rates are influenced by the global investor preferences; examining the relationship with the long-term rates would help the investors frame the trading strategies.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verma Priti

AbstractThis paper examines the mean, volatility spillovers and response asymmetries between short-term and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and portfolios of money center, large and medium-sized banks in the U.S. I use the multivariate version of Nelson’s (1991) Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (EGARCH) model. Results indicate mean and volatility spillovers from short-term interest rates and exchange rates and long-term interest rates and exchange rates to three bank portfolios. Results also show response asymmetries from short-term interest rates and exchange rates and long-term interest rates and exchange rates to all the three bank portfolios. These findings have important implications for bankers in terms of devising different hedging strategies against interest rates and exchange rate risks.


2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jèrôme Coffinet ◽  
Sylvain Gouteron

Abstract Using intraday data, we assess the impact of monetary news on the full length of the euro-area yield curve. We find that the publication of monetary data has a significant impact on interest rates with maturities ranging from one to ten years, with the largest effect on the one- to five-year segment. These results suggest that when gauging the policy-relevant signals, market participants look through short-term movements of annual M3 growth and focus instead on the trend rate of monetary expansion over the medium term.


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