Predictability-dependent encoding of statistical regularities in the early visual cortex
Previous research recognized that humans could extract statistical regularities of the environment to automatically predict upcoming events. However, it has remained unexplored how the brain encodes the distribution of statistical regularities if it continuously changes. To investigate this question, we devised an fMRI paradigm where participants (N = 32) completed a visual four-choice reaction time (RT) task consisting of statistical regularities. Two types of blocks involving the same perceptual elements alternated with one another throughout the task: While the distribution of statistical regularities was predictable in one block type, it was unpredictable in the other. Participants were unaware of the presence of statistical regularities and of their changing distribution across the subsequent task blocks. Based on the RT results, although statistical regularities were processed similarly in both the predictable and unpredictable blocks, participants acquired less statistical knowledge in the unpredictable as compared with the predictable blocks. Whole-brain random-effects analyses showed increased activity in the early visual cortex and decreased activity in the precuneus for the predictable as compared with the unpredictable blocks. Therefore, the actual predictability of statistical regularities is likely to be represented already at the early stages of visual cortical processing. However, decreased precuneus activity suggests that these representations are imperfectly updated to track the multiple shifts in predictability throughout the task. The results also highlight that the processing of statistical regularities in a changing environment could be habitual.