scholarly journals Self-Correction in Psychological Science: How do Psychologists Update their Beliefs in Response to Replications?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander McDiarmid ◽  
Alexa Mary Tullett ◽  
Cassie Marie Whitt ◽  
Simine Vazire ◽  
Paul E. Smaldino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Psychological Effects ◽  
Belief Updating ◽  
Intellectual Humility ◽  
Replication Studies ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Personal Investment ◽  
Before And After ◽  
New Evidence

Self-correction—a key feature distinguishing science from pseudoscience—requires that scientists update their beliefs in light of new evidence. However, people are often reluctant to change their beliefs. We examined self-correction in action, tracking research psychologists’ beliefs in psychological effects before and after the completion of four large-scale replication projects. We found that psychologists did update their beliefs; they updated as much as they predicted they would, but not as much as our Bayesian model suggests they should if they trust the results. We found no evidence that psychologists became more critical of replications when it would have preserved their pre-existing beliefs. We also found no evidence that personal investment or lack of expertise discouraged belief updating, but people higher on intellectual humility updated their beliefs slightly more. Overall, our results suggest that replication studies can contribute to self-correction within psychology, but psychologists may underweight their evidentiary value.

scholarly journals Using model-based predictions to inform the mathematical aggregation of human-based predictions of replicability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elliot Gould ◽  
Aaron Willcox ◽  
Hannah Fraser ◽  
Felix Singleton Thorn ◽  
David Peter Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Replication Studies ◽  
Model Based

Crowd-sourced human judgments about the trustworthiness of research claims may be used to generate forecasts of the probability of those claims being successfully replicated . Predictive models are less time and resource-intensive methods of generating forecasts about the likely replicability of research claims , however, are likely to be less accurate than human judgments. In this paper we propose and demonstrate a method that combines both crowd-sourced human judgments and model-based predictions of the likely replicability of research claims. We employ a Bayesian model that takes the model-based predictions as the prior data, and updates these values using crowd-sourced human judgments to generate predictions of replication outcomes using an annotated database of eight large-scale replication studies.

Addressing a Crisis of Generalizability with Large-Scale Construct Validation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Kay Flake ◽  
Mairead Shaw ◽  
Raymond Luong
Keyword(s):  
Construct Validity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Construct Validation ◽  
Replication Studies ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Replication Research ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
Validation Research

Yarkoni describes a grim state of psychological science in which the gross misspecification of our models and specificity of our operationalizations produce claims with generality so narrow that no one would be interested in them. We consider this a generalizability of construct validity issue and discuss how construct validation research should precede large-scale replication research. We provide ideas for a path forward by suggesting psychologists take a few steps back. By retooling large-scale replication studies, psychologists can execute the descriptive research needed to assess the generalizability of constructs. We provide examples of reusing large-scale replication data to conduct construct validation research post hoc. We also discuss proof of concept research that is on-going at the Psychological Science Accelerator. Big team psychology makes large-scale construct validity and generalizability research feasible and worthwhile. We assert that no one needs to quit the field, in fact, there is plenty of work to do. The optimistic interpretation is that if psychologists focus less on generating new ideas and more on organizing, synthesizing, measuring, and assessing constructs from existing ideas, we can keep busy for at least 100 years.

Fixing the Leak: Unemployment Incidence before and after a Major Reform of Unemployment Benefits in Germany

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Dlugosz ◽  
Ralf A. Wilke ◽  
Gesine Stephan
Keyword(s):  
Older Workers ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Unemployment Benefit ◽  
Unemployment Benefits ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Scale Reduction ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Major Reform ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract We present first empirical results on the effects of a large scale reduction in unemployment benefit entitlement lengths on unemployment inflows in Germany. We show that this highly disputed element of the Hartz-Reforms in 2006 induced a rush of workers and firms to take advantage of the previous legislation in its last days. Furthermore, we find a considerable decline in transitions to unemployment and an increase in employment rates among older workers after the reform. Our results provide new evidence for the importance of changes in unemployment inflows for the analysis of changes in unemployment outflows.

The Effect of Active Site-inhibited Factor VIIa on Tissue Factor-initiated Coagulation Using Platelets before and after Aspirin Administration

1997 ◽  
Vol 78 (04) ◽  
pp. 1202-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne Kjalke ◽  
Julie A Oliver ◽  
Dougald M Monroe ◽  
Maureane Hoffman ◽  
Mirella Ezban ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tissue Factor ◽  
Active Site ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thrombin Generation ◽  
Factor Viia ◽  
Dependent Manner ◽  
Antithrombotic Agent ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Ic50 Values

SummaryActive site-inactivated factor VIIa has potential as an antithrombotic agent. The effects of D-Phe-L-Phe-L-Arg-chloromethyl ketone-treated factor VIla (FFR-FVIIa) were evaluated in a cell-based system mimicking in vivo initiation of coagulation. FFR-FVIIa inhibited platelet activation (as measured by expression of P-selectin) and subsequent large-scale thrombin generation in a dose-dependent manner with IC50 values of 1.4 ± 0.8 nM (n = 8) and 0.9 ± 0.7 nM (n = 7), respectively. Kd for factor VIIa binding to monocytes ki for FFR-FVIIa competing with factor VIIa were similar (11.4 ± 0.8 pM and 10.6 ± 1.1 pM, respectively), showing that FFR-FVIIa binds to tissue factor in the tenase complex with the same affinity as factor VIIa. Using platelets from volunteers before and after ingestion of aspirin (1.3 g), there were no significant differences in the IC50 values of FFR-FVIIa [after aspirin ingestion, the IC50 values were 1.7 ± 0.9 nM (n = 8) for P-selectin expression, p = 0.37, and 1.4 ± 1.3 nM (n = 7) for thrombin generation, p = 0.38]. This shows that aspirin treatment of platelets does not influence the inhibition of tissue factor-initiated coagulation by FFR-FVIIa, probably because thrombin activation of platelets is not entirely dependent upon expression of thromboxane A2.

Enlightening Symbols

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Mazur
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Number System ◽  
Psychological Effects ◽  
Mathematical Notation ◽  
Rhetorical Style ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mathematical Symbols ◽  
Before And After ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Different Cultures

While all of us regularly use basic mathematical symbols such as those for plus, minus, and equals, few of us know that many of these symbols weren't available before the sixteenth century. What did mathematicians rely on for their work before then? And how did mathematical notations evolve into what we know today? This book explains the fascinating history behind the development of our mathematical notation system. It shows how symbols were used initially, how one symbol replaced another over time, and how written math was conveyed before and after symbols became widely adopted. Traversing mathematical history and the foundations of numerals in different cultures, the book looks at how historians have disagreed over the origins of the number system for the past two centuries. It follows the transfigurations of algebra from a rhetorical style to a symbolic one, demonstrating that most algebra before the sixteenth century was written in prose or in verse employing the written names of numerals. It also investigates the subconscious and psychological effects that mathematical symbols have had on mathematical thought, moods, meaning, communication, and comprehension. It considers how these symbols influence us (through similarity, association, identity, resemblance, and repeated imagery), how they lead to new ideas by subconscious associations, how they make connections between experience and the unknown, and how they contribute to the communication of basic mathematics. From words to abbreviations to symbols, this book shows how math evolved to the familiar forms we use today.

Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias: Comment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Kvarven ◽  
Eirik Strømland ◽  
Magnus Johannesson
Keyword(s):  
Publication Bias ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
False Positive Rate ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Replication Studies ◽  
Moderate Reduction ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
Meta Analyses

Andrews & Kasy (2019) propose an approach for adjusting effect sizes in meta-analysis for publication bias. We use the Andrews-Kasy estimator to adjust the result of 15 meta-analyses and compare the adjusted results to 15 large-scale multiple labs replication studies estimating the same effects. The pre-registered replications provide precisely estimated effect sizes, which do not suffer from publication bias. The Andrews-Kasy approach leads to a moderate reduction of the inflated effect sizes in the meta-analyses. However, the approach still overestimates effect sizes by a factor of about two or more and has an estimated false positive rate of between 57% and 100%.

scholarly journals Physiological and Psychological Effects of Watching Videos of Different Durations Showing Urban Bamboo Forests with Varied Structures

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3434
Author(s):  
Yuqian Wang ◽  
Mingyan Jiang ◽  
Yinshu Huang ◽  
Zhiyi Sheng ◽  
Xiao Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Skin Conductance ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Psychological Effects ◽  
Physiological Indicators ◽  
Psychological Indicators ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Long Time

This study illustrated the physiological and psychological effects of watching videos of different durations showing bamboo forests with varied structures. Physiological indicators, including EEG (electroencephalogram), blood pressure, skin conductance, and pulse, were monitored in 180 Chinese university students (mean age: 20.72 ± 2.56 years) while they were watching bamboo videos. Before and after watching the videos, their psychological indicators, including positive and negative moods, were measured using the Profile of Mood States questionnaire. After watching the bamboo videos of different durations, all of the physiological indicators responded to the stimulation after only 1 min. The indicators showed different trends at 1, 3 and 5 min. EEG decreased and then was maintained at a stable level after 1 min, and the high β, low β, and α waves had no significant differences between 1, 3 and 5 min. Blood pressure dropped to a stable state after 3 min, and the decline was significantly different greater after 3 min than after 1 min. Skin conductance increased for 1 to 5 min, and it did not stabilize after a long time (5 min). Pulse decreased after 1 min but increased after 5 min. After watching the videos with bamboo of varying structures, the physiological and psychological indicators showed significantly different changes. Skin conductance significantly increased (mean value: 6.78%), and the amount of sweat was more effectively reduced, thereby reducing tension, when the students viewed videos of sympodial bamboo forests compared with monopodial bamboo forests. Bamboo forests with a higher canopy density (0.83–0.85) could significantly decrease α waves (mean value: 1.50 Hz), relaxing the human body. High β and low β waves showed greater decreases, with tension reduced more effectively, when bamboo forests with a low tilt ratio (< 1.5%) were viewed. Bamboo forests with neat undergrowth could have more beneficial physiological and psychological effects on the human body.

scholarly journals THU0642-HPR EVOLUTION OF THE PERCEPTIONS OF RA PATIENTS AFTER EDUCATION PATIENT SESSION TEACHING METHOTREXATE SELF-INJECTION A PROSPECTIVE PILOT STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 566.1-566
Author(s):  
S. Afilal ◽  
H. Rkain ◽  
B. Berchane ◽  
J. Moulay Berkchi ◽  
S. Fellous ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Patient Education ◽  
Median Duration ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Education Session ◽  
Prospective Pilot Study ◽  
Mean Delay ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Level Of Satisfaction ◽  
Before And After

Background:Methotrexate is a gold standard for treatment of RA. In our context, RA patients prefer to be injected by paramedics rather than self-injecting. This can be explained by patients’ bad perceptions of self-injection or lack of information. Appropriate self-injection education can therefore be an important element in overcoming these obstacles and improving disease self-management.Objectives:Compare the RA patients’ perceptions on methotrexate self-injection before and after a patient education session.Methods:Prospective pilot study that included 27 consecutive patients (81.5% female, mean age 44.4 years, illiteracy rate 40.7%) with RA (median duration of progression of 4 years, mean delay in referral for specialist of 6 months, median duration of methotrexate use of 1 year). The patients benefited from an individual patient education session to learn how to self-inject with methotrexate subcutaneously. The patient education session was supervised by a nurse and a rheumatologist with a control a week later. Perceptions of the reluctance to self-inject and the difficulties encountered by patients were assessed before the patient education session, after the 1st and 2nd self-injection of methotrexate using a 10 mm visual analog scale. Patients also reported their level of satisfaction (10 mm VAS) after the 1st and 2nd self-injection.Results:The mean duration of patient education session is 13 min.Table I compares the evolution of the degrees of reluctance to self-injection, the difficulties encountered, and the satisfaction experienced by the patients.Table 1.Evolution of RA patients’ perceptions on the methotrexate self-injection. (N = 27)BeforeAfter the 1stself-injectionAfter the 2end self-injectionpVAS reluctance (0-10mm)6,5 ± 3,62,2 ± 2,91,0 ± 2,3<0,0001VAS difficulty (0-10mm)7,5 ± 2,62,5 ± 2,71,0 ± 1,9<0,0001VAS satisfaction (0-10mm)-8,9 ± 1,89,5 ± 1,50,002Conclusion:This study suggests the effectiveness of a methotrexate self-injection patient education session in RA patients. It also highlights the value of patient education in rheumatologic care. A large-scale study is necessary to better interpret and complete these preliminary results from this pilot study.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Dynamic variations in salinity and potassium grade of a potassium-rich brine deposit in Lop Nor basin, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lichun Ma ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Qingfeng Tang ◽  
Hui Yan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Potassium Sulfate ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Underground Brine ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Rational Development ◽  
Mining History ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Lop Nor

AbstractThe Quaternary Lop Nor playa is the largest production base of potassium sulfate in the world. It has a mining history of more than 10 years, and its share in the Chinese potassium sulfate market is about 50% to-date. In this basin, the high-salinity potassium-rich brines are mainly contained in Middle Pleistocene–Holocene glauberite strata. Based on the monitoring of the underground brine table and geochemical analysis, this study reveals variations in the underground brine table and potassium-bearing grade before and after large-scale mining in the Lop Nor potash deposit. The results showed that the underground brine table and potassium sulfate grade decreased by varying degrees over sub-mineral areas after large-scale mining. The underground brine table declined by 8.5 m, on average, in the Luobei depression, by 6.4 m in the Tenglong platform and by 1.9 m in the Xinqing platform. However, the potassium-bearing grade showed the different trend. The Tenglong platform had the largest decline with average decreases in layers W1, W2 and W3 of 18.2%, 13.0% and 24.8%, respectively. In the Xinqing platform, the average decrease in layersW2 and W3 were 17.4% and 16.0% respectively. The Luobei depression decreases were relatively small (W1, W2 and W3 decreased 4.3%, 4.2% and 3.1%, respectively). This research provides a theoretical basis for the rational development and sustainable use of the potassium-rich brines in the Lop Nor basin.

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