scholarly journals When alternative hypotheses shape your beliefs: Context effects in probability judgments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohong Cai ◽  
Timothy Joseph Pleskac
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Context Effects ◽  
The Other ◽  
Similar Process ◽  
Probability Judgments ◽  
Support Theory ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Independence Assumptions

When people are asked to estimate the probability of an event occurring, they sometimes make different subjective probability (SP) judgments for different descriptions of the same event. This implies the evidence or support recruited to make SPs is based on the descriptions of the events (hypotheses) instead of the events themselves, as captured by Tversky and Koehler's (1994) support theory. However, is the support assigned to a hypothesis invariant, as support theory assumes? Here, across two studies where participants were asked to estimate the probability that an event would occur, we show that the support people recruit about the target hypothesis also depends on the other hypotheses under consideration. The first study shows that the presence of a distractor---a hypothesis objectively dominated by the target hypothesis---boosts the SP assigned to the target hypothesis. The second study shows that the presence of a resembler---a hypothesis that is objectively similar to the target hypothesis---detracts more from the SP assigned to the target hypothesis than the competing hypothesis. These context effects invalidate the regularity and the strong independence assumptions of support theory and more generally suggest a similar process that drives the construction of preference also underlies belief.

Comparison of Forced-Choice and Subjective Probability Scales Measuring Behavioral Intentions

2000 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura T. Flannelly ◽  
Kevin J. Flannelly ◽  
Malcolm S. McLeod
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Behavioral Intentions ◽  
Cognitive Theory ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Forced Choice ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Support Theory ◽  
Don't Know Responses ◽  
Source Of Error

Three surveys compared the accuracy of predictions based on forced-choice and subjective probability scales. The latter produced significantly more accurate election predictions and significantly reduced the percentage of undecided, or “Don't Know” responses, compared to forced-choice scales in all three surveys. Analysis indicates subjective probability scales decrease sampling error and confirms there is an inherent source of error in traditional forced-choice questions about voting intentions not attributable to sampling error. The results are discussed with respect to (1) sampling and measurement errors in forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions, (2) their practical application, and (3) cognitive theory, especially support theory.

scholarly journals Furious Frederich: Nietzsche’s neurosyphilis diagnosis and new hypotheses

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (12) ◽  
pp. 1041-1043
Author(s):  
Charles André ◽  
André Rangel Rios
Keyword(s):  
Physical Examination ◽  
Frontotemporal Dementia ◽  
Basal Forebrain ◽  
The Other ◽  
Slow Decay ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
End Stage

The causes of Friedrich Nietzsche’s mental breakdown in early 1889 and of the subsequent slow decay to end-stage dementia along ten years will possibly remain open to debate. The diagnosis of syphilitic dementia paralytica, based only on medical anamnesis and physical examination, was considered indisputable by Otto Binswanger. On the other hand, taking into account recently described diseases, selectively collected evidence lend some support to alternative hypotheses: basal forebrain meningioma, CADASIL, MELAS and frontotemporal dementia.

Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: A multi-parameter approach

1991 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 796-817
Author(s):  
Nitzan Rabinowitz ◽  
David M. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
The Other ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Parameter Approach

Abstract We propose a novel multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This approach allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a variety of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much richer picture than standard analyses, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. We illustrate our method with a sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Jerusalem. In this example, we find several input parameters whose importance depends critically on the settings of other input parameters. This phenomenon, which cannot be detected by a standard sensitivity analysis, is easily diagnosed by our method. The multi-parameter approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.

Uncertainty Regarding Interpretation of the “Negligence Rule” and Its Implications for the Efficiency of Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish K. Jain
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Condition ◽  
Liability Rule ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Standard Version ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Negligence Rule

AbstractThere are two ways that the negligence rule is interpreted. Under one interpretation a negligent injurer is liable for the entire harm to the victim; and under the other interpretation a negligent injurer is liable only for that part of the harm which can be ascribed to his negligence. Both these versions are efficient. However, if there is uncertainty regarding whether the court will be employing the full liability version or the incremental liability version for determining the liability of a negligent injurer, notwithstanding the fact that both the versions are efficient, inefficiency is possible. It is shown in the paper that a necessary and sufficient condition for efficiency in all cases is that the subjective probability with which the injurer expects the standard version to be employed must be greater than or equal to the subjective probability with which the victim expects the standard version to be employed. For the subset of applications without complementarities in the cares of the two parties and which are such that the total social costs are minimized at a unique care-configuration, it is shown that efficiency obtains regardless of the subjective probabilities with which the parties expect the two versions. One very important conclusion that emerges from the analysis of this paper is that when courts employ more than one liability rule, even if all the employed rules are efficient, the efficiency of all outcomes cannot be taken for granted merely on the ground of the efficiency of the employed rules.

scholarly journals Excision of 5-Halogenated Uracils by Human Thymine DNA Glycosylase

2007 ◽  
Vol 282 (38) ◽  
pp. 27578-27586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Morgan ◽  
Matthew T. Bennett ◽  
Alexander C. Drohat
Keyword(s):  
Potential Role ◽  
Anticancer Agent ◽  
Context Effects ◽  
Maximal Activity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Dna Glycosylase ◽  
Cytotoxic Effects ◽  
Thymine Dna Glycosylase ◽  
Inflammatory Conditions ◽  
Neighbor Effects

Thymine DNA glycosylase (TDG) excises thymine from G·T mispairs and removes a variety of damaged bases (X) with a preference for lesions in a CpG·X context. We recently reported that human TDG rapidly excises 5-halogenated uracils, exhibiting much greater activity for CpG·FU, CpG·ClU, and CpG·BrU than for CpG·T. Here we examine the effects of altering the CpG context on the excision activity for U, T, FU, ClU, and BrU. We show that the maximal activity (kmax) for G·X substrates depends significantly on the 5′ base pair. For example, kmax decreases by 6-, 11-, and 82-fold for TpG·ClU, GpG·ClU, and ApG·ClU, respectively, as compared with CpG·ClU. For the other G·X substrates, the 5′-neighbor effects have a similar trend but vary in magnitude. The activity for G·FU, G·ClU, and G·BrU, with any 5′-flanking pair, meets and in most cases significantly exceeds the CpG·T activity. Strikingly, human TDG activity is reduced 102.3–104.3-fold for A·X relative to G·X pairs and reduced further for A·X pairs with a 5′ pair other than C·G. The effect of altering the 5′ pair and/or the opposing base (G·X versus A·X) is greater for substrates that are larger (bromodeoxyuridine, dT) or have a more stable N-glycosidic bond (such as dT). The largest CpG context effects are observed for the excision of thymine. The potential role played by human TDG in the cytotoxic effects of ClU and BrU incorporation into DNA, which can occur under inflammatory conditions and in the cytotoxicity of FU, a widely used anticancer agent, are discussed.

Preference Reversals Between Joint and Separate Evaluations With Multiple Alternatives and Context Effects

2017 ◽  
Vol 120 (6) ◽  
pp. 1117-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yin-Hui Cheng ◽  
Annie P. Yu ◽  
Molly Chien-Jung Huang ◽  
Chia-Jung Dai
Keyword(s):  
Context Effect ◽  
Context Effects ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
The Other ◽  
Preference Reversal ◽  
Preference Reversals ◽  
Alternative Evaluation ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
Two Alternatives

Most research on preference reversal (PR) focuses on the evaluability hypothesis with one or two alternatives. However, people normally encounter more than two options in daily life. In this research, a third option was added to the PR effect choice sets in the traditional joint–separate evaluations mode to create a context effect. Three studies were conducted. Studies 1 and 2 showed that adding a third option to the choice sets changed the PR effect; either the attributes were both important or one was important and the other was not. Study 3 showed that the PR effect reappeared when a third option was added to the choice sets that had no PR effect with just two attributes that were difficult to evaluate independently in traditional evaluations modes. The three studies confirmed that preferences changed in multi-alternative evaluation modes, contradicting Hsee’s (1996) work and showing that the context effect is stronger than that of the attribute’s importance in the PR effect.

The Psychophysics of Retrospective and Prospective Timing

Perception ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott W Brown ◽  
D Alan Stubbs
Keyword(s):  
Context Effect ◽  
Serial Order ◽  
Order Effect ◽  
The Other ◽  
Similar Process ◽  
Rank Ordering ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Actual Duration

In two experiments, different groups of subjects heard four musical selections and then estimated the duration of each selection. Some groups made retrospective time estimates while others made prospective estimates. In both experiments, analyses of the psychophysical relation between perceived and actual duration showed that the slopes of straight-line fits were flatter and accounted for a smaller proportion of the variance under retrospective as compared with prospective conditions. In addition, in experiment 1, retrospective subjects were less accurate in rank ordering the selections from longest to shortest. There was also a serial-order effect, with selections estimated longer when they occurred early in the sequence. In experiment 2 the slopes decreased as the selections in a series became longer. Both retrospective and prospective estimates also exhibited a context effect, in that estimates of a given selection were influenced by the relative durations of the other three selections in the series. The results on inaccurate retrospective judgments raise questions about prior research on stimulus factors and retrospective timing. However, similarities under retrospective and prospective conditions suggest that timing under these conditions, although different in some respects, reflects a similar process.

Identity and Civil Society in Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 856-878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott D. Orr
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political Behavior ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Social Identities ◽  
The Other ◽  
Women's Issues ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses

This research tests the hypothesis that social identities play a key role in the success or failure of democracy, since individuals often hold ethnic and regional identities in particular in a mutually exclusive fashion, resisting calls to act politically on other identities that cut across them. Activists in women's non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were interviewed in Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine, in order to examine the policy process in an area that cuts across ethnic and regional lines. In newer democracies, the effects of identities should be strongest, since institutions are new, and have less ability to constrain political behavior. The hypothesis that ethnic and regional divisions inhibit cooperation within and between NGOs was tested against alternative hypotheses that attribute cooperation, or the lack of it, to outside funding. The results support the argument that ethnic and regional divisions harm cooperation on women's issues, though the other hypotheses cannot be ruled out.

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