scholarly journals NO TRUMP!: A statistical exercise in priming

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
andrew gelman

How are people unconsciously influenced by the rise of Donald Trump? We test the theory that Trump’s rise has irrationally changed the behavior of one group of people: elite bridge players, whom we assume are otherwise completely typical. We examine the hands played in one of the premier North American bridge events, the Vanderbilt Knockout Tournament, in 1999 and 2015. We find that players had significantly higher probabilities of making No Trump contracts in the 2015 period compared with the earlier periods. We conclude that in the latter period, defending players are subtly deranged by the prospect of Trump and play their hands worse. By contrast, a 2015 European tournament shows no significant difference with the earlier 1999 tournament. This strengthens our conclusion.

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 131 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Khoury ◽  
Michael A Portman ◽  
Cedric Manlhiot ◽  
Anne Fournier ◽  
Rejane F Dillenburg ◽  
...  

Background: Statins have been considered as therapy for children with coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) after Kawasaki disease (KD), due to potential beneficial pleiotropic effects which might influence chronic vascular processes and inflammation. Methods: The North American Kawasaki Disease Registry was queried to identify patients who have received statins in the first 6 months following the convalescent phase of KD. Each identified patient was matched by age, gender and CAA z score to 3 patients who were statin-naïve (controls). Linear regression models adjusted for repeated measures and maximum coronary involvement were used to determine an association of statin use with longitudinal changes in coronary artery diameter z-score. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare freedom from angiographically-confirmed stenosis or interventions. Results: Of 29 patients with KD and CAA (maximum coronary artery z-score >10) who received statins at any time (of n=621, 5%), 10 (9 males) patients were started within 6 months of the acute KD episode. The mean age at KD was 6.3±3.4 years (5.4±3.5 for controls, p=0.57). Mean maximum CAA z-score was 36±14 (vs. 29±16, p=0.20); 90% of statin patients and 87% of matched controls had CAAs in 3 or more branches. Linear regression analysis of 442 serial echocardiograms showed that maximum CAA z-score decreased by -1.5 (95%CI: -2.7; -0.4) SD/year (p=0.008) for control patients compared to -2.9 (95%CI: -4.4; -1.4) SD/year (p<0.001) for statin treated patients. The difference between the rate of change of CAA z-score for statin vs. control patients did not reach statistical significance (controls vs. statins: +1.4 SD/year, 95%CI: -0.6; +3.4, p=0.18). n=7 patients (3 on statin, 4 controls) developed stenosis or had revascularization, with no significant difference between groups (HR for statin group: 2.2 (0.4-11.4), p=0.41). Conclusions: This underpowered pilot study suggests that equipoise likely exists with regards to statin therapy in children with KD and CAA, and that a formal registry-nested trial might be considered.


Subject Mexico-EU trade talks Significance Talks on modernising the Mexico-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have gained urgency since the election of US President Donald Trump as the prospect of an end to free trade within North America forces Mexican officials to get serious about diversifying relations. While negotiators hope to seal a new EU deal by the end of the year, many issues are yet to be addressed and renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is absorbing bureaucratic capacity. Impacts Anti-American sentiment stemming from Washington’s hostility could favour European firms and investors in Mexico. The rush to conclude agreements risks bad deals and political blowback from Mexico’s opposition. Transportation costs and connectivity will ultimately matter more for Mexican diversification than already low tariffs.


Significance The tariffs, on 12.8 billion US dollars’ worth of US goods, respond to US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium exports. This could mark the beginning of a sharp deterioration in relations between the two close economic partners and military allies. The pending US response by President Donald Trump could include tariffs on Canada’s automobile sector, which would disrupt the closely integrated North American automobile industry. Impacts Both countries’ governments will gain new tariff revenues, but lose money from higher unemployment longer term. US steel and aluminium will still be supplied by Canadian suppliers, but increased costs could see firms fail. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will push to keep NAFTA renegotiations going, seeking to work with Mexico. NAFTA renegotiations will stall, if not terminate; separate bilateral negotiations (US-Canada and US-Mexico) are then likely. Bilateral trade talks could cost Trudeau politically if he is seen to bow unduly to Trump.


2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabíola do Nascimento Corrêa ◽  
Rafaella Câmara Teixeira ◽  
Carlos Magno Chaves Oliveira ◽  
José Diomedes Barbosa ◽  
Adivaldo Henrique da Fonseca

This study aimed to investigate the frequency of homologous antibodies of IgG class against Borrelia burgdorferi in buffaloes in the state of Pará, Brazil. Blood serum samples from 491 buffaloes were analyzed by means of the indirect ELISA test, using crude antigen produced from a cultivar of the North American strain G39/40 of B. burgdorferi. There were 412 positive samples (83.91%), and there was no statistically significant difference in the proportions of positive animals between the 81.69% (232/284) originating from Marajó Island and the 86.96% (180/207) from the continental area of the state of Pará. In all the municipalities studied, the frequency of positive findings of antibodies against B. burgdorferi among the animals ranged from 63.6% to 92.9%. The high numbers of seropositive animals can be explained by the frequent presence of the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus)microplus, and by the possible existence of spirochetes of the genus Borrelia infecting buffaloes in the region studied, although specific studies are needed to confirm this relationship. These factors suggest that a cross-reaction exists between the North American strain G39/40 of B. burgdorferi, which is used as an antigenic substrate, and the species of Borrelia spp. that possibly infects buffaloes in the state of Pará.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Sina Önder ◽  
Hakan Yilmazkuday

AbstractWe provide a descriptive analysis of various qualities of peer-reviewed journal publications of graduates of North American economics PhD programs between 1980 and 2014. We find that the share of single-author papers in all published papers diminishes from 60% in 1980 to 50% in 1990 and then further down to 20% in 2014. All-female and mixed-gender author teams publish significantly less compared with all-male author teams between 1980 and 1999, but we find no significant difference after 2000. While male authors are over-represented in micro and macroeconomics, female authors are over-represented in labor and development economics. Although the quality of outlets for most fields does not change much over years, labor economics and economic history are published significantly better after 2000.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Q. Mehta ◽  
Supriya Behl ◽  
Patrick L. Day ◽  
Adriana M. Delgado ◽  
Nicholas B. Larson ◽  
...  

Metal ion dyshomeostasis and disparate levels of biometals like zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), and selenium (Se) have been implicated as a potential causative factor for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). In this study, we have enrolled 129 children (aged 2–4 years) in North America, of which 64 children had a diagnosis of ASD and 65 were controls. Hair, nail, and blood samples were collected and quantitatively analyzed for Zn, Cu and Se using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Of the analyzed biometals, serum Se (116.83 ± 14.84 mcg/mL) was found to be significantly lower in male ASD cases compared to male healthy controls (128.21 ± 9.11 mcg/mL; p &lt; 0.005). A similar trend was found for nail Se levels in ASD (1.01 ± 0.15 mcg/mL) versus that of controls (1.11 ± 0.17 mcg/mL) with a p-value of 0.0132 using a stratified Wilcoxon rank sum testing. The level of Se in ASD cohort was co-analyzed for psychometric correlation and found a negative correlation between total ADOS score and serum Se levels. However, we did not observe any significant difference in Zn, Cu, and Zn/Cu ratio in ASD cases versus controls in this cohort of North American children. Further studies are recommended to better understand the biology of the relationship between Se and ASD status.


1995 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiko Minami ◽  
Allyssa McCabe

ABSTRACTIn past research, the form of Japanese children's personal narratives was found to be distinctly different from that of English-speaking children. Despite follow-up questions that encouraged them to talk about one personal narrative at length, Japanese children spoke succinctly about collections of experiences rather than elaborating on any one experience in particular (Minami & McCabe, 1991). Conversations between mothers and children in the two cultures were examined in order partly to account for the way in which cultural narrative style is transmitted to children. Comparison of mothers from the two cultures yielded the following salient contrasts: (1) In comparison to the North American mothers, the Japanese mothers requested proportionately less description from their children. (2) Both in terms of frequency and proportion, the Japanese mothers gave less evaluation and showed more verbal attention to children than did North American mothers. (3) Japanese mothers pay verbal attention more frequently to boys than to girls. In addition, at five years, Japanese children produce 1·22 utterances per turn on average, while North American children produce 2·00 utterances per turn, a significant difference. Thus, by frequently showing verbal attention to their children's narrative contributions, Japanese mothers not only support their children's talk about the past but also make sure that it begins to take the shape of narration valued in their culture. The production of short narratives in Japan is understood and valued differently from such production in North America.


2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-520
Author(s):  
Laura Macdonald

AbstractThe election of Donald Trump and his decision to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) represented a shock to the Canadian and Mexican governments and business elites. Drawing on the New Regionalism(s) Approach (NRA), this article reviews the response of the Canadian state to the crisis in the North American regional project. I argue that this newer theoretical approach better explains the dynamics of regionalization or regional decomposition than mainstream theories by integrating the role played by uneven globalization, normative and ideational dimensions, and civil society in processes of regional integration and/or decomposition.


1979 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 476-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. von Rudloff ◽  
Martin S. Lapp

Intra- and inter-populational variations in the leaf oil terpene composition of western red cedar from 29 different collection sites from most of its natural range were investigated. This cedar species has one of the lowest degrees of variability found thus far in northern North American conifer species. No significant difference was found between coastal and interior populations and only slight divergence was recorded in outlying ones.


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