Water balance component analysis of a spring catchment of western Nepal

Springs in the mountains and hills are getting affected by both climatic and non-climatic changes. Hydrologic models are used to simulate the response of spring systems to the changes; however, only a limited number of studies using the hydrologic modeling approach have been accomplished on studying springs and spring-dominated watersheds in Nepal. This research aimed at understanding changing hydrological processes through hydrologic modeling in a spring catchment. A micro-catchment named 'Sikharpur' of West Seti watershed of Nepal was selected to get insights into the process influencing the spring system. The RRAWFLOW models with gamma distribution and time variant IRFs were calibrated and validated for the catchment to get the best fit model. The discharge was simulated according to the future projected climate scenarios. Then, a water balance was assessed for the micro-catchment. The results showed that understanding of likely response of hydrologic variables to potential future climate scenarios is critical for water resource management. It was estimated that the spring discharge would be decreased by more than 40 percentage after 50 years mainly due to the increase in evapo-transpiration (91.47% of the precipitation). Evapo-transpiration was found as a major hydrologic process impacting upon water balance in the spring catchment; therefore, its management for better spring resource conservation is recommended by considering high evapo-transpiration months, water deficient period and crop factor. The change in the storage was observed to be 51.78%; so, detail isotopic analysis and long-term monitoring of water balance is required for further characterization of water balance components.

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Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-4213-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (8) ◽

pp. 4213-4228 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman ◽

M. Shakil Ahmed ◽

Hasnat Mohammad Adnan ◽

Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽

M. Abdul Khalek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Arima Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Discrete Wavelet ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Mk Test ◽

Periodic Components

Abstract. The objectives of the present study were to explore the changes in the water balance components (WBCs) by co-utilizing the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and different forms of the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and develop a wavelet denoise autoregressive integrated moving average (WD-ARIMA) model for forecasting the WBCs. The results revealed that most of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) trends (approximately 73 %) had a decreasing tendency from 1981–1982 to 2012–2013 in the western part of Bangladesh. However, most of the trends (approximately 82 %) were not statistically significant at a 5 % significance level. The actual evapotranspiration (AET), annual deficit, and annual surplus also exhibited a similar tendency. The rainfall and temperature exhibited increasing trends. However, the WBCs exhibited an inverse trend, which suggested that the PET changes associated with temperature changes could not explain the change in the WBCs. Moreover, the 8-year (D3) and 16-year (D4) periodic components were generally responsible for the trends found in the original WBC data for the study area. The actual data was affected by noise, which resulted in the ARIMA model exhibiting an unsatisfactory performance. Therefore, wavelet denoising of the WBC time series was conducted to improve the performance of the ARIMA model. The quality of the denoising time series data was ensured using relevant statistical analysis. The performance of the WD-ARIMA model was assessed using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient and coefficient of determination (R2). The WD-ARIMA model exhibited very good performance, which clearly demonstrated the advantages of denoising the time series data for forecasting the WBCs. The validation results of the model revealed that the forecasted values were very close to actual values, with an acceptable mean percentage error. The residuals also followed a normal distribution. The performance and validation results indicated that models can be used for the short-term forecasting of WBCs. Further studies on different combinations of wavelet analysis are required to develop a superior model for the hydrological forecasting in the context of climate change. The findings of this study can be used to improve water resource management in the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh.

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Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model

Water ◽

10.3390/w12030852 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 852 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽

Syewoon Hwang ◽

Soon-Kun Choi ◽

Jaepil Cho ◽

Inhong Song ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Paddy Water ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Impact

This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on water balance components in irrigated paddy cultivation. The APEX-Paddy model, which is the modified version of the APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model for paddy ecosystems, was used to evaluate the paddy water balance components considering future climate scenarios. The bias-corrected future projections of climate data from 29 GCMs (General Circulation Models) were applied to the APEX-Paddy model simulation. The study area (Jeonju station) forecasts generally show increasing patterns in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature with a rate of up to 23%, 27%, and 45%, respectively. The hydrological simulations suggest over-proportional runoff–rainfall and under-proportional percolation and deep-percolation–rainfall relationships for the modeled climate scenarios. Climate change scenarios showed that the evapotranspiration amount was estimated to decrease compared to the baseline period (1976–2005). The evaporation was likely to increase by 0.12%, 2.21%, and 7.81% during the 2010s, 2040s, and 2070s, respectively under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5, due to the increase in temperature. The change in evaporation was more pronounced in RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5 scenario. The transpiration is expected to reduce by 2.30% and 12.62% by the end of the century (the 2070s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, due to increased CO2 concentration. The irrigation water demand is generally expected to increase over time in the future under both climate scenarios. Compared to the baseline, the most significant change is expected to increase in the 2040s by 3.21% under RCP8.5, while the lowest increase was found by 0.36% in 2010s under RCP4.5. The increment of irrigation does not show a significant difference; the rate of increase in the irrigation was found to be greater RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 except in the 2070s. The findings of this study can play a significant role as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of rice production concerning water management against climate change.

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Modelling and statistical analysis of catchment water balance and discharge in Finland in 1951–2099 using transient climate scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2012.012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 55-78 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Noora Veijalainen ◽

Johanna Korhonen ◽

Bertel Vehviläinen ◽

Harri Koivusalo

Keyword(s):

Water Balance ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Control Period ◽

Mapping Method ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Low Flows

In this study climate change impacts on water balance components were estimated from transient climate scenarios for 1951–2099 in Finland. The future changes in evapotranspiration and discharge in annual and seasonal scales as well as annual mean high and low flows were projected for four catchments in different parts of Finland. The assessment was carried out using temperature and precipitation series simulated by four regional climate models (RCMs) as input to a conceptual hydrological model. The daily data from RCMs was bias corrected with the quantile–quantile mapping method and statistical properties of the simulated discharges were analysed to detect trends over time. Without bias correction the simulated discharges in the control period did not match the observed discharges, but the fit was improved considerably after bias correction. The results showed that seasonal changes, most importantly increase in winter runoff, were clearly visible and consistent in different climate scenarios and catchments. Individual scenarios also produced changes in annual mean, high and low flows, but without consistency in scenarios. The use of bias corrected RCM data as input to the hydrological model enables transient simulations, but the simulation results aggregate considerable uncertainties from the climate modelling, bias correction and the hydrological model.

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Analysis of water balance components of a river sub-basin under future climate scenarios

Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽

10.1007/s40899-021-00583-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Nagendra Reddy ◽

Nagraj S. Patil ◽

M. Nataraja

Keyword(s):

Water Balance ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Water Balance Components

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Water Resource Management through Understanding of the Water Balance Components: A Case Study of a Sub-Alpine Shallow Lake

Water ◽

10.3390/w13213124 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (21) ◽

pp. 3124

Author(s):

Marzia Ciampittiello ◽

Claudia Dresti ◽

Helmi Saidi

Keyword(s):

Resource Management ◽

Surface Water ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Water Inflow ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Hydrological Balance ◽

Volume Variation ◽

Groundwater Source

Water availability is a crucial factor for the hydrological balance of sub-alpine shallow lakes and for their ecosystems. This is the first study on water balance and water management of Lake Candia, a small sub-alpine, shallow morainic lake. The aims of this paper are to better understand the link between surface water and groundwater. The analyses carried out included: (i) evaluation of water balance, (ii) identification of trends for each component of water balance, (iii) detection of the presence of a break point or change in the behavior of each component, and (iv) regression analyses of the terms of hydrological balance and their relative importance. The analyses revealed a high variability mainly regarding the groundwater component, and very good correlation between rainfall and volume variation, between rainfall and the water inflow, and between groundwater source and outflow. Volume variation is linked with rainfall, outflow, groundwater source, and surface water inflow. Despite the fact that the groundwater component does not seem to have a great importance relative to direct rainfall on the lake, it is necessary to study the component with careful resource management policies that point toward the protection of the water resource, sustainable uses, and protection of the Lake Candia ecosystem.

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The response of water balance components to land cover change based on hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis in the Upper Awash Basin

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies ◽

10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100640 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 ◽

pp. 100640 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Alemayehu A. Shawul ◽

Sumedha Chakma ◽

Assefa M. Melesse

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Least Squares ◽

Partial Least Squares ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Partial Least Squares Regression ◽

Hydrologic Modeling ◽

Least Squares Regression ◽

Water Balance Components

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Afforestation of Degraded Croplands as a Water-Saving Option in Irrigated Region of the Aral Sea Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w13101433 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. 1433

Author(s):

Navneet Kumar ◽

Asia Khamzina ◽

Patrick Knöfel ◽

John P. A. Lamers ◽

Bernhard Tischbein

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Supply ◽

Water Availability ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Water Saving ◽

Aral Sea ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Study Region ◽

Trade Offs

Climate change is likely to decrease surface water availability in Central Asia, thereby necessitating land use adaptations in irrigated regions. The introduction of trees to marginally productive croplands with shallow groundwater was suggested for irrigation water-saving and improving the land’s productivity. Considering the possible trade-offs with water availability in large-scale afforestation, our study predicted the impacts on water balance components in the lower reaches of the Amudarya River to facilitate afforestation planning using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The land-use scenarios used for modeling analysis considered the afforestation of 62% and 100% of marginally productive croplands under average and low irrigation water supply identified from historical land-use maps. The results indicate a dramatic decrease in the examined water balance components in all afforestation scenarios based largely on the reduced irrigation demand of trees compared to the main crops. Specifically, replacing current crops (mostly cotton) with trees on all marginal land (approximately 663 km2) in the study region with an average water availability would save 1037 mln m3 of gross irrigation input within the study region and lower the annual drainage discharge by 504 mln m3. These effects have a considerable potential to support irrigation water management and enhance drainage functions in adapting to future water supply limitations.

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