scholarly journals Flood forecasting in Blue Nile basin using a process-based hydrological model

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Osama R Abdel-Aziz
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Human Life ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Basin Scale

Predictions of variations in global and regional hydrological cycles and their response to changes in climate and the environment are key problems for future human life. Therefore, basin-scale hydrological forecasts, along with predictions regarding future climate change, are needed in areas with high flood potential. This study forecasts hydrological process scenarios in Blue Nile basin using a distributed hydrological model (DHM) and predicted scenarios of precipitation from two general circulation models, CCSM3 model and Miroc3.2-hires. Firstly, river discharge was simulated by the DHM using the observed rainfall from 1976 to 1979 and then, simulating future precipitations from 2011 to 2040, discharge scenarios were predicted. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v3i1.9938 International Journal of Environment Vol.3(1) 2014: 10-21

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 551-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Elshamy ◽  
I. A. Seierstad ◽  
A. Sorteberg
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Runoff Coefficient ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. This study analyses the output of 17 general circulation models (GCMs) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report. Downscaled precipitation and potential (reference crop) evapotranspiration (PET) scenarios for the 2081–2098 period were constructed for the upper Blue Nile basin. These were used to drive a fine-scale hydrological model of the Nile Basin to assess their impacts on the flows of the upper Blue Nile at Diem, which accounts for about 60% of the mean annual discharge of the Nile at Dongola. There is no consensus among the GCMs on the direction of precipitation change. Changes in total annual precipitation range between −15% to +14% but more models report reductions (10) than those reporting increases (7). Several models (6) report small changes within 5%. The ensemble mean of all models shows almost no change in the annual total rainfall. All models predict the temperature to increase between 2°C and 5°C and consequently PET to increase by 2–14%. Changes to the water balance are assessed using the Budyko framework. The basin is shown to belong to a moisture constrained regime. However, during the wet season the basin is largely energy constrained. For no change in rainfall, increasing PET thus leads to a reduced wet season runoff coefficient. The ensemble mean runoff coefficient (about 20% for baseline simulations) is reduced by about 3.5%. Assuming no change or moderate changes in rainfall, the simulations presented here indicate that the water balance of the upper Blue Nile basin may become more moisture constrained in the future.

Estimation of hydrological response to future climate change in a cold watershed

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Zhong-Liang Wang ◽  
Yue Zhao ◽  
Yan-Xue Xu ◽  
Xue Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Water System ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Hydrological Process

Abstract The vulnerability of the natural water system in cold areas to future climate change is of great concern. A coupled model approach was applied in the headwater watershed area of Yalu River in the northeastern part of China to estimate the response of hydrological processes to future climate change with moderate data. The stochastic Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator was used to downscale the results of general circulation models to generate synthetic daily weather series in the 2050s and 2080s under various projected scenarios, which were applied as input data of the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions hydrological model for future hydrological process estimations. The results showed that future wetter and hotter weather conditions would have positive impacts on the watershed runoff yields but negative impacts on the watershed groundwater flow yields. The freezing period in winter would be shortened with earlier snowmelt peaks in spring. These would result in less snow cover in winter and shift the monthly allocations of streamflow with more yields in March but less in April and May, which should be of great concern for future local management. The proposed approach of the coupled model application is effective and can be used in other similar areas.

scholarly journals Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 3145-3165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuletawu Abera ◽  
Giuseppe Formetta ◽  
Luca Brocca ◽  
Riccardo Rigon
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. The Upper Blue Nile basin is one of the most data-scarce regions in developing countries, and hence the hydrological information required for informed decision making in water resource management is limited. The hydrological complexity of the basin, tied with the lack of hydrometeorological data, means that most hydrological studies in the region are either restricted to small subbasins where there are relatively better hydrometeorological data available, or on the whole-basin scale but at very coarse timescales and spatial resolutions. In this study we develop a methodology that can improve the state of the art by using available, but sparse, hydrometeorological data and satellite products to obtain the estimates of all the components of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, evapotranspiration, discharge, and storage). To obtain the water-budget closure, we use the JGrass-NewAge system and various remote sensing products. The satellite product SM2R-CCI is used for obtaining the rainfall inputs, SAF EUMETSAT for cloud cover fraction for proper net radiation estimation, GLEAM for comparison with NewAge-estimated evapotranspiration, and GRACE gravimetry data for comparison of the total water storage amounts available in the whole basin. Results are obtained at daily time steps for the period 1994–2009 (16 years), and they can be used as a reference for any water resource development activities in the region. The overall water-budget analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360 ± 230 mm per year. Evapotranspiration accounts for 56 % of the annual water budget, runoff is 33 %, storage varies from −10 to +17 % of the water budget.

scholarly journals Water budget modelling of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuletawu Abera ◽  
Giuseppe Formetta ◽  
Luca Brocca ◽  
Riccardo Rigon
Keyword(s):  
Water Budget ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
And Storage ◽  
Daily Time ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. The Upper Blue Nile basin is one of the most data-scarce regions in the world, hence, the hydrological information required for informed decision making in water resources management is limited. The hydrological complexity of the basin, tied with the lack of hydrometerological data, means that most hydrological studies in the region are either restricted to small subbasins where there are relatively better hydrometeorological data available, or at the whole basin scale but at very coarse time scales and spatial resolutions. In this study, we develop a methodology that can improve the state-of-art by using the available, but sparse, hydrometerological data and satellite products. To this scope, we use the JGrass-NewAGE system to estimates the water budget components (Precipitation J, Evapotranspiration ET, discharge Q, and storage ds/dt). The satellite products SM2R-CCI is used for obtaining the rainfall inputs; SAF EUMETSAT for cloud cover fraction for proper net radiation estimation; GLEAM for comparison with estimated ET; and GRACE gravimetry data also for comparison of the total water storage amounts available. Results are obtained at daily time-steps for the period 1994–2009 (16 years), and they can be used as a reference for any water resource development activities in the region. The overall long term mean budget analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360 ± 230 mm per year. Evaporation covers 56 % of the yearly budget, runoff is 33 %. Storage varies from minus 9.7 % to plus 6.9 % of the budget.

scholarly journals SabaTracheid 1.0: A Novel Program for Quantitative Analysis of Conifer Wood Anatomy — A Demonstration on African Juniper From the Blue Nile Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyob Gebrehiwot Gebregeorgis ◽  
Justyna Boniecka ◽  
Marcin Pia̧tkowski ◽  
Iain Robertson ◽  
Cyrille B. K. Rathgeber
Keyword(s):  
Tree Rings ◽  
Wood Anatomy ◽  
Tropical Trees ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Juniperus Procera ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Fine Resolution

Knowledge about past climates, especially at a seasonal time scale, is important as it allows informed decisions to be made to mitigate future climate change. However, globally, and especially in semi-arid Tropics, instrumental climatic data are scarce. A dendroclimatic approach may fill this gap, but tropical dendrochronological data are rare and do not yet provide fine resolution intra-annual information about past climates. Unlike in the Tropics, in the Mediterranean, temperate, alpine, and arctic regions, dendroanatomy and quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) are progressing fast attaining an intra-annual resolution, which allows a better understanding of seasonal climate dynamics and climate–growth relationships. The existing dendroanatomical and QWA methods aren’t suitable for tropical trees because they do not consider the high variation in tree ring width and the frequent occurrence of micro-rings containing only a few tracheids per radial file. The available tracheid analysis programs generally fail to provide multiple sectors for micro-rings and they are unable to compute most of the useful dendroanatomical parameters at fine temporal resolutions. Here, we present a program (SabaTracheid) that addresses the three main standard tasks that are necessary for QWA and dendroanatomy before running a climate analysis: (1) tracheidogram standardization, (2) sectoring, and (3) computing QWA and dendroanatomical variables. SabaTracheid is demonstrated on African Juniper (Juniperus procera Hochst. ex Endl), but it is potentially able to provide fine-resolution QWA and dendroanatomic data that could be used for dendroanatomical studies in all regions of the world. SabaTracheid is a freeware that quickly and accurately standardizes tracheidograms, divides tree rings into multiple regular sectors, computes useful dendroanatomic and QWA variables for the whole tree rings, early- and latewood portions, and each sector separately. This program is particularly adapted to deal with high inter-annual growth variations observed in tropical trees so that it assures the provision of complete sectoral QWA and dendroanatomical data for micro-rings as well. We demonstrate SabaTracheid using a dataset of 30 Juniperus procera tree rings from the Blue Nile basin, in Ethiopia. SabaTracheid’s ability to provide fine resolution QWA and dendroanatomic data will help the discipline develop in tropical as well as in the Mediterranean and temperate regions.

scholarly journals Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebiyaw Sitotaw Takele ◽  
Geremew Sahilu Gebre ◽  
Azage Gebreyohannes Gebremariam ◽  
Agizew Nigussie Engida
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin using an integrated climate and hydrological model. The impact of climate change on water resources is being assessed using the regional climate model (RCM) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Future climate scenarios have been developed for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). The study found that the projected rainfall shows a decreasing trend and is not statistically significant, while the temperature shows an increasing trend and is statistically significant. Due to the sharp rise in temperature, the annual evapotranspiration increased by about 10.4%. This and the declining trend of rainfall will reduce streamflow up to 54%, surface runoff up to 31%, and water yield up to 31%. Climate change causes seasonal and annual fluctuations in the water balance components. However, the projected seasonal changes are much greater than the annual changes. Therefore, the results of this study will be useful to basin planners, policymakers, and water resources managers in developing adaptation strategies to offset the adverse effects of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile basin.

scholarly journals Multi-Dimensional Drought Assessment in Abbay/Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Importance of Shared Management and Regional Coordination Efforts for Mitigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1835
Author(s):  
Yared Bayissa ◽  
Semu Moges ◽  
Assefa Melesse ◽  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Anteneh Z. Abiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Small Streams ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Drought is one of the least understood and complex natural hazards often characterized by a significant decrease in water availability for a prolonged period. It can be manifested in one or more forms as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and/or socio-economic drought. The overarching objective of this study is to demonstrate and characterize the different forms of droughts and to assess the multidimensional nature of drought in the Abbay/ Upper Blue Nile River (UBN) basin and its national and regional scale implications. In this study, multiple drought indices derived from in situ and earth observation-based hydro-climatic variables were used. The meteorological drought was characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from the earth observation-based gridded CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) rainfall data. Agricultural and hydrological droughts were characterized by using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), respectively. The monthly time series of SMDI was derived from model-based gridded soil moisture and SRI from observed streamflow data from 1982 to 2019. The preliminary result illustrates the good performance of the drought indices in capturing the historic severe drought events (e.g., 1984 and 2002) and the spatial extents across the basin. The results further indicated that all forms of droughts (i.e., meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological) occurred concurrently in Abbay/Upper Blue Nile basin with a Pearson correlation coefficient ranges from 0.5 to 0.85 both Kiremt and annual aggregate periods. The concurrent nature of drought is leading to a multi-dimensional socio-economic crisis as indicated by rainfall, and soil moisture deficits, and drying of small streams. Multi-dimensional drought mitigation necessitates regional cooperation and watershed management to protect both the common water sources of the Abbay/Upper Blue Nile basin and the socio-economic activities of the society in the basin. This study also underlines the need for multi-scale drought monitoring and management practices in the basin.

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