Analysis of the Effect of Trade Balance on Manufacturing: Evidence from the United States
The relationship between a country’s manufacturing industry and net trade carries a great deal of complexity and proves critical as the economy matures. Moreover, debates in public arenas are oftentimes not helpful in alleviating confusions. This study attempts to empirically explore the nature of this relationship for the United States in particular. Using a set of structural vector auto-regressions, it reveals that the development of the manufacturing sector is inhibited in the long-run by worsening trade balances. However, this relationship does not appear significant. The implication of this finding weakens arguments singling out negative trade balances as driving forces behind the perceived woes of US manufacturing. Keywords: Manufacturing, Trade balance, United States, Cointegration, Vector auto-regression. JEL Classification: F14, F60, C51.