THE ESTIMATION METHOD OF HOURLY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION USING DURATION OF SUNSHINE, CLOUD COVER AND THE OTHER CLIMATIC ELEMENTS

ESIAS is an atmospheric modeling system including the ensemble version of the Weather Forecasting and Research Model (WRF V3.7.1) and the ensemble version of the EURopean Air pollution Dispersion-Inverse Model (EURAD-IM), the latter uses the output of the WRF model to calculate, amongst others, the transportation of aerosols. To capture extreme weather events causing the uncertainty in the solar radiation and wind speed for the renewable energy industry, we employ ESIAS by using stochastic schemes, such as Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (SPPT) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEBS) schemes, to generate the random fields for ensembles of up to 4096 members.&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Our first goal is to produce 48 hourly weather predictions for the European domain with a 20 KM horizontal resolution to capture extreme weather events affecting wind, solar radiation, and cloud cover forecasts. We use the ensemble capability of ESIAS to optimize the physics configuration of WRF to have a more precise weather prediction. A total of 672 ensemble members are generated to study the effect of different microphysical schemes, cumulus schemes, and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes. We examine our simulation outputs with 288 simulation hours in 2015 using model input from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Our results are validated by the cloud cover data from EUMETSAT CMSAF. Besides the precision of weather forecasting, we also determine the greatest spread by generating total 768 ensemble members: 16 stochastic members for each different configurations of physical parameterizations (48 combinations). The optimization of WRF will help for improving the air quality prediction by EURAD-IM, which will be demonstrated on a test case basis.&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; Our results show that for the performed analysis the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 5.1, WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6), and the Goddard microphysics outstand the other 11 microphysics parameterizations, where the highest daily average matching rate is 64.2%. The Mellor&#8211;Yamada Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) 2 and MYNN3 schemes give better results compared to the other 8 planetary boundary layer schemes, and Grell 3D (Grell-3) works generally well with the above mentioned physical schemes. Overall, the combination of Goddard and MYNN3 produces the greatest spread comparing to the lowest spread (Morrison 2-moment & GFS) by 40%.

Download Full-text

Development of a Daily Databank of Solar Radiation Components for Moroccan Territory

International Journal of Photoenergy ◽

10.1155/2019/6067539 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 ◽

pp. 1-20 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mohammed Benchrifa ◽

Hajar Essalhi ◽

Rachid Tadili ◽

Mohammed N. Bargach ◽

Abdellah Mechaqrane

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Global Radiation ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

The Other ◽

Correlation Equations ◽

Spectral Radiation ◽

Solar Systems ◽

Statistical Indicators ◽

Radiation Measurements ◽

Estimation Models

The main objective of this work is to create a daily updated database that includes all components of solar radiation, either energetic or spectral radiation. This will lead us to quantify the Moroccan solar potential and to determine the dimensions of all types of solar thermal and photovoltaic systems. Consequently, the obtained database will be the fundamental support for engineers, designers, and all organizations interested in developing solar systems, in different regions throughout Morocco. It will also be a basic tool for researchers in modelling and simulating the new solar systems. Firstly, we used one year’s worth of measurements of the different components of the solar radiation, provided by the National Meteorological Department, to establish the extrapolation equations between the global radiation at the reference site and the global radiation of twenty-eight other sites. As well as with the same measurements, we developed the correlation equations between the global solar radiation and the other solar radiation components. Secondly, from ten years of Fez station’s daily global radiation measurements and through the extrapolation equations, we were able to estimate the global radiation of all Moroccan cities. Then, by using the obtained global radiation data and the correlation equations, we predicted the other components of solar radiation. Subsequently, with a new measurement campaign carried out on several sites, we validated the estimation models by using the usual statistical indicators. In addition, we compared our results with those obtained by other estimation models. The resulting differences for each solar component display the advantage of our model with errors under 6%. To facilitate the use of our results, we compiled them into maps representing the spread of solar radiation across Morocco.

Download Full-text

Using the artificial neural networks for prediction and validating solar radiation

Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society ◽

10.1186/s42787-019-0043-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zahraa E. Mohamed

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Horizontal Surface ◽

The Other ◽

Rate Coefficients ◽

Ann Models ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽

Statistical Indicators ◽

Better Than

AbstractThe main objective of this paper is to employ the artificial neural network (ANN) models for validating and predicting global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface of three Egyptian cities. The feedforward backpropagation ANNs are utilized based on two algorithms which are the basic backpropagation (Bp) and the Bp with momentum and learning rate coefficients respectively. The statistical indicators are used to investigate the performance of ANN models. According to these indicators, the results of the second algorithm are better than the other. Also, model (6) in this method has the lowest RMSE values for all cities in this study. The study indicated that the second method is the most suitable for predicting GSR on a horizontal surface of all cities in this work. Moreover, ANN-based model is an efficient method which has higher precision.

Download Full-text

Variabilidade Espacial da Radiação Solar na Região de Manaus - AM durante o Experimento GOAmazon 2014/15 (Spatial variability of solar radiation in Manaus-AM region during GOAmazon Experiment 2014/15)

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física ◽

10.26848/rbgf.v10.6.p1802-1811 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 1802

Author(s):

Alice Dos Santos Macedo ◽

Gilberto Fisch

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Spatial Variability ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Horizontal Gradient ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Wet Season ◽

E 600 ◽

The City

Este trabalho realizou um estudo da variabilidade espacial em 2014 da irradiância solar na região de Manaus-AM, através de dados observacionais, inserido no Projeto GOAmazon 2014/15. Também, como forma complementar, foi realizada a análise da cobertura de nuvens, chuva e aerossóis e suas interrelações com a irradiância solar. Como resultado, observa-se que os menores valores médios da irradiância solar ocorreram na área urbana,o que é justificado, em parte pela urbanização que altera os fluxos envolvidos, diminuindo a irradiância solar à superfície. Os valores típicos são entre 400 e 600 Wm-2na estação chuvosa (fevereiro/março) com um desvio padrão de 200 e 380 Wm-2e entre 650 e 800 Wm-2na estação seca (agosto-setembro) com desvio padrão de 190 e 300 Wm-2. A B S T R A C T The solar radiation is an important climatic element in the Amazon region, as it has a strong impact for ecological (by the preservation of the biodiversity) and technological (as a renewable energy) areas. Consequently, this study contributes for these themes, conducting an observational study of the spatial variability of the solar irradiance for Manaus-AM area, with data collected during the project GOAmazon 2014/15. The cloud cover and rainfall and their relationships with solar radiation were also analysed. The maximum values observed for the wet season (february and march) are in the range 450 and 600 Wm-2 with high standart deviation (300 - 350 Wm-2 ), while they are in the range from 650 and 800 Wm-2 during the dry period (august - september) with lower standart deviation (200 - 300 Wm-2). These values are directly associated with cloud cover and rainfall. In general, the urban area (Manaus city) showed the low values of solar radiation at the surface compared with its neighborhood, inducing a horizontal gradient of clouds/rainfall and solar energy between the city and the semi rural areas. Keywords: piranometer, global solar radiation, cloud cover, total sky imager

Download Full-text

Analysis of Measurements of Direct Normal and Global Solar Radiation for Maceió, Alagoas State, Northeastern Brazil

Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia ◽

10.1590/0102-77863540070 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 35 (4) ◽

pp. 659-674

Author(s):

José Marcelo Lopes Júnior ◽

José Leonaldo de Souza ◽

Ricardo Araujo Ferreira Junior ◽

Cícero Manoel dos Santos ◽

Gustavo Bastos Lyra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Northeastern Brazil ◽

Human Knowledge ◽

Clearness Index ◽

Study Region ◽

Maximum Value ◽

Sky Conditions

Abstract Studying solar radiation is essential for human knowledge, since it is present in practically all its activities. Thus, the aim of this work was to analyze the climatic and seasonal variation of direct normal and global solar radiation in the region of Maceió, Alagoas State, Northeastern Brazil with sky conditions characterized by clearness index (Kt). The Kt was determined by the ratio between global solar irradiance and solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere. The highest occurrences of daily direct normal solar irradiance under conditions of Kt ≥ 0.6 were recorded between 400 W m−2 and 700 W m−2 for all seasons. Under conditions of 0.4 ≤ Kt < 0.6, the daily direct normal solar irradiance occurred between 200 W m−2 and 500 W m−2 and for conditions of Kt < 0.4, its maximum value was 200 W m−2. It was observed that the levels of solar incidence in the study region depend on cloud cover conditions, with little influence of seasonality.

Download Full-text

Improving the S-Shape Solar Radiation Estimation Method for Supporting Crop Models

The Scientific World JOURNAL ◽

10.1100/2012/768530 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Nándor Fodor

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Relative Error ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Model Calculations ◽

Site Specific ◽

Crop Models ◽

Step Procedure ◽

The Usa ◽

Original Formula

In line with the critical comments formulated in relation to the S-shape global solar radiation estimation method, the original formula was improved via a 5-step procedure. The improved method was compared to four-reference methods on a large North-American database. According to the investigated error indicators, the final 7-parameter S-shape method has the same or even better estimation efficiency than the original formula. The improved formula is able to provide radiation estimates with a particularly low error pattern index () which is especially important concerning the usability of the estimated radiation values in crop models. Using site-specific calibration, the radiation estimates of the improved S-shape method caused an average of () relative error in the calculated biomass. Using only readily available site specific metadata the radiation estimates caused less than 5% relative error in the crop model calculations when they were used for locations in the middle, plain territories of the USA.

Download Full-text

Solar Energy Potential and Its Utilization in Perovskite-Based Solar Cells for Selected Sites in Nepal

Tribhuvan University Journal ◽

10.3126/tuj.v33i2.33604 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 33 (2) ◽

pp. 45-58

Author(s):

Krishna Raj Adhikari

Keyword(s):

Solar Cells ◽

Solar Cell ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Power Conversion ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

The Other ◽

Energy Potential ◽

Cell Capacitance

The measurements of solar radiation for Biratnagar (BRT), Kathmandu (KTM), Pokhara (PKR) and Jumla (JML) have been undertaken using CMP 6 pyranometers from SAHR/IOE/TU, Nepal. Solar radiation and the other meteorological data have been collected from the archives of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal (DHM/GoN) to analyze the daily Global Solar Radiation (GSR). In this study, perovskite-based solar cells with the configuration Au/SpiroOMETAD/MAPbI3/TiO2/FTO have been simulated using Solar Cell Capacitance Simulator (SCAPS). The power conversion efficiency (PCE) of the cell is found to be 22.67, 22.69, 22.77 and 22.80% in BRT, KTM, PKR and JML respectively, almost similar and better performance, whereas the solar cell performs better in JML due to the high solar irradiance.

Download Full-text

Validation study of an overall radiation balance estimation method under Ponta Grossa (PR) Brazil weather conditions

Engenharia Agrícola ◽

10.1590/s0100-69162014000300010 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 34 (3) ◽

pp. 461-472

Author(s):

Gustavo C. Beruski ◽

André B. Pereira

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

Classical Method ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Farming Systems ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Radiation Balance ◽

State University ◽

Statistical Parameters ◽

Natural Processes

Radiation balance is the fraction of incident solar radiation upon earth surface which is available to be used in several natural processes, such as biological metabolism, water loss by vegetated surfaces, variation of temperature in farming systems and organic decomposition. The present study aimed to assess and validate the performance of two estimation models for Rn in Ponta Grossa city, Paraná State, Brazil. To this end, during the period of 04/01/2008 to 04/30/2011, from radiometric data collected by an automatic weather station set at the Experimental Station, of the State University of Ponta Grossa. We performed a linear regression study by confrontation between measurements made through radiometric balance and Rn estimates obtained from Brunt classical method, and the proposed method. Both models showed excellent performance and were confirmed by the statistical parameters applied. However, the alternative method has the advantage of requiring only global solar radiation values, temperature, and relative humidity.

Download Full-text

A Comparative study of Time Series, Empirical Orthogonal Transformation and Descriptive Statistical Analysis on Meteorological Parameters over Ogoja and Maiduguri

Journal of Energy Research and Reviews ◽

10.9734/jenrr/2019/v3i130088 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-14

Author(s):

D. O. Akpootu ◽

B. I. Tijjani ◽

U. M. Gana

Keyword(s):

Statistical Analysis ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Relative Humidity ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Cloud Cover ◽

Meteorological Parameters ◽

Orthogonal Transformation ◽

Global Solar Radiation ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Sunshine Hours

In this study, time series statistical analysis was carried out on the monthly average daily meteorological parameters of global solar radiation, sunshine hours, wind speed, mean temperature, rainfall, cloud cover and relative humidity during the period of thirty one years (1980 – 2010) using IBM SPSS Statistics version 20 with expert modeler to determine the level, trend and seasonal variations for Ogoja and Maiduguri. Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models were determined for the two locations along with their respective statistical indicators of coefficient of determination, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Error and are found suitable for one step ahead forecast for the studied area. The factor analysis (empirical orthogonal transformation) and descriptive statistical analysis was also carried out for the study areas under investigation. The results indicated that the model type for all the meteorological parameters for Ogoja is simple seasonal while that for Maiduguri is simple seasonal except for rainfall and cloud cover with winter’s additive and ARIMA models respectively. The correlation matrix obtained from the factor analysis for the studied area indicated that the global solar radiation and wind speed are more correlated with the mean temperature. The sunshine hours and mean temperature are more correlated with the global solar radiation. The rainfall is more correlated with the relative humidity; similarly, the relative humidity is more correlated with the rainfall. However, the cloud cover is more correlated to the rainfall for Ogoja while for Maiduguri the cloud cover is more correlated to the relative humidity. The component matrix analysis revealed that two seasons are identified for Ogoja; the rainy and dry seasons while for Maiduguri three seasons are identified; the rainy, cool dry (harmattan) and hot dry seasons. The skewness and kurtosis test for Ogoja indicated that the global solar radiation, sunshine hours, cloud cover and relative humidity are negatively skewed and the wind speed, mean temperature and rainfall are positively skewed while the global solar radiation, sunshine hours, wind speed, cloud cover and relative humidity indicates possibility of a leptokurtic distribution and the mean temperature and rainfall indicates possibility of a platykurtic distribution. The skewness and kurtosis for Maiduguri indicated that the solar radiation, rainfall and relative humidity are positively skewed and the sunshine hours, wind speed, mean temperature and cloud cover are negatively skewed while the global solar radiation, rainfall and cloud cover indicates possibility of a leptokurtic distribution and the sunshine hours, wind speed, mean temperature and relative humidity indicates possibility of a platykurtic distribution.

Download Full-text