Modeling Long-Term Highway Staffing Requirements for State Transportation Agencies

2017 ◽  
Vol 2612 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-84
Author(s):  
Ying Li ◽  
Timothy R. B. Taylor ◽  
Gabriel B. Dadi ◽  
Roy E. Sturgill
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Highway Infrastructure ◽  
Staffing Levels ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Temporary Staffing ◽  
Staffing Requirements ◽  
Transportation Agencies

State transportation agencies (STAs) across the country face many challenges in repairing and enhancing highway infrastructure to meet rapidly increasing transportation needs. One of these challenges is maintaining an adequate and efficient agency staff. To effectively plan for future staffing levels, STAs need a method for forecasting long-term staffing requirements. However, the methods currently in use cannot function without well-defined projects; therefore, making long-term forecasts is difficult. This paper seeks to develop a dynamic model that captures the feedback mechanisms within the system that determines highway staffing requirements. The system dynamics modeling method was used to build the forecasting model. The formal model was based on dynamic hypotheses derived from a literature review and interviews with transportation experts. Qualitative and quantitative data from literature and federal and state databases were used to support the values and equations in the model. The model integrates STAs’ strategic plans, funding situations, and staffing strategies and determines future staffing levels and will hopefully fill the absence of long-term forecasting tools at STAs. Standard system dynamics validation procedures were used to test the model, after which input data specific to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet were used to calibrate the model and to simulate an expected retirement wave and search for solutions to address temporary staffing shortages.

scholarly journals The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Nielsen ◽  
Erland H. Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Strategic Learning ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
The Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Methodological Aspects

The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC) thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy

2013 ◽  
Vol 378 ◽  
pp. 483-486
Author(s):  
Yu Ning Wang ◽  
Hui Ming Zeng ◽  
Bin Qing Tang ◽  
Bin Xiang Hu
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Competitive Ability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Policy Suggestions

Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.

scholarly journals Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Address Complex Conservation Problems: Tiger Farming as a Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Rieder ◽  
Lincoln R. Larson ◽  
Michael 't Sas-Rolfes ◽  
Birgit Kopainsky
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Body Parts ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Policy Conflict ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Tiger Conservation ◽  
Human Wildlife Conflict

Conservation practitioners routinely work within complex social-ecological systems to address threats facing biodiversity and to promote positive human-wildlife interactions. Inadequate understanding of the direct and indirect, short- and long-term consequences of decision making within these dynamic systems can lead to misdiagnosed problems and interventions with perverse outcomes, exacerbating conflict. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling is a process that encourages stakeholder engagement, synthesizes research and knowledge, increases trust and consensus and improves transdisciplinary collaboration to solve these complex types of problems. Tiger conservation exemplifies a set of interventions in a complex social-ecological system. Wild tigers remain severely threatened by various factors, including habitat constraints, human-wildlife conflict, and persistent consumer demand for their body parts. Opinions differ on whether commercial captive tiger facilities reduce or increase the threat from poaching for trade, resulting in policy conflict among diverse stakeholder groups. This paper explains how we are working with international conservation partners in a virtual environment to utilize a participatory SD modeling approach with the goal of better understanding and promoting coexistence of humans and wild tigers. We highlight a step-by-step process that others might use to apply participatory SD modeling to address similar conservation challenges, building trust and consensus among diverse partners to reduce conflict and improve the efficacy of conservation interventions.

Assessing the Sustainment of a Lean Implementation Using System Dynamics Modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-29
Author(s):  
Marc Haddad ◽  
Rami Otayek
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Resistance To Change ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cultural Resistance ◽  
Lean Implementation ◽  
Work In Process ◽  
Production Wastes ◽  
Traditional Work

The adoption of the lean approach has yet to extend to the majority of manufacturers in developing countries where traditional work practices are dominant and cultural resistance to change is high. This research consists of a case study about lean implementation at a clothing manufacturer in a developing country. Production wastes are identified and appropriate lean techniques, namely Total Productive Maintenance, Kanban and Supermarket Pull, are identified to eliminate or reduce them. The potential impacts on the manufacturing system are first assessed using a system dynamics model. The modeling results showed a “getting worse before getting better” behavior as work-in-process increased in the short-term, before a net reduction of 34% on average was achieved over the first 3 months. This result was replicated by a similar trend in the actual lean implementation on the factory floor, showing the usefulness of SD modeling for supporting the sustainability of lean interventions where short-term drawbacks can be deceptive when compared to the long-term benefits of lean.

System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy

2013 ◽  
Vol 765-767 ◽  
pp. 278-281
Author(s):  
Yu Ning Wang ◽  
Hui Ming Zeng ◽  
Bing Qing Tang ◽  
Bin Xiang Hu
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Competitive Ability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Policy Suggestions

Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Modeling and Computer-based Simulation in Forecasting Long-term Sufficiency: A Philippine Chicken Meat Sector Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 5406-5411 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. M. Espino ◽  
L. M. Bellotindos
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Chicken Meat ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Strategic Issues ◽  
Proper Actions ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Meat Sector

As the human population continues to grow, the global growth of the livestock sector will continue to rise as well. In the Philippines, the demand for chicken meat is projected to triple by 2050. In this study, the increasing consumption and long-term sufficiency were evaluated with the use of the system dynamics concept. With system modeling and computer-based simulation techniques, the available data on chicken meat supply chain were processed considering that factors behave dynamically. The simulated model facilitated the forecasting of key variables which may drop sufficiency from 87% in 2015 to 60% by 2050 if no proper actions take place in the areas of production and consumption. As a whole, this study developed and demonstrated preliminary system dynamics-based and computer based-approaches in order to understand the chicken meat sector. This showed that a dynamic systems-based paradigm shift in food and agricultural systems analysis can help address operational and strategic issues regarding food security.

scholarly journals System Dynamics Modeling for Evaluating Regional Hydrologic and Economic Effects of Irrigation Efficiency Policy

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Yining Bai ◽  
Saeed P. Langarudi ◽  
Alexander G. Fernald
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Irrigation Efficiency ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Hydrologic Connectivity ◽  
System Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Simulation Results

Exploring the dynamic mechanisms of coupled sociohydrologic systems is necessary to solve future water sustainability issues. This paper employs system dynamics modeling to determine hydrologic and economic implications of an irrigation efficiency (IE) policy (increased conveyance efficiency and field efficiency) in a coupled sociohydrologic system with three climate scenarios. Simulations are conducted within the lower Rio Grande region (LRG) of New Mexico for the years 1969 to 2099, including water, land, capital, and population modules. Quadrant analysis is utilized to compare the IE policy outcomes with the base case and to categorize results of simulations according to hydrologic and economic sustainability. The four categories are beneficial, unacceptable, unsustainable agricultural development, and unsustainable hydrology. Simulation results for the IE policy analyzed here fall into the categories of unsustainable agricultural development or unacceptable, suggesting there are long-term negative effects to regional economies in all scenarios with mixed results for hydrologic variables. IE policy can yield water for redistribution as increased unit water supply in the field produces more deep percolation; however, IE policy sacrifices regional connectivity. Specifically, simulation results show that the policy increases abundance by 4.7–74.5% and return flow by −3.0–9.9%. These positive results, however, come at the cost of decreased hydrologic connectivity (−31.5 to −25.1%) and negative economic impacts (−32.7 to −5.7%). Long-term net depletions in groundwater are also observed from loss of hydrologic connectivity and increased agricultural water demand from projections of increased consumptive use of crops. Adaptive water management that limits water use in drought years and replenishes groundwater in abundant years as well as economic incentives to offset the costs of infrastructure improvements will be necessary for the IE policy to result in sustainable agriculture and water resources.

Development of Social and Economic Forecasting and Ideas of A. Anchishkin

2013 ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
G. Kuranov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Planning ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Working Out

The role of the prominent Soviet economist, academician A. Anchishkin (1933—1987), whose 80th birth anniversary we celebrate this year, in the development of ideas and formation of economic forecasting in the country at the time when the directive planning acted as a leading tool of economic management is explored in the article. Besides, Anchishkin’s special role is noted in developing a comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress, an information basis for working out long-term forecasts of the country’s development, moreover, his contribution to the creation of long-term forecasting methodology and improvement of the statistical basis for economic analysis and economic planning. The authors show that social and economic forecasting in the period after 1991, which has undertaken a number of functions of economic planning, has largely relied on further development of Anchishkin’s ideas, at the same time responding to new challenges for the Russian economy development during its entry into the world economic system.

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