scholarly journals Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Address Complex Conservation Problems: Tiger Farming as a Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Rieder ◽  
Lincoln R. Larson ◽  
Michael 't Sas-Rolfes ◽  
Birgit Kopainsky
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Body Parts ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Policy Conflict ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Tiger Conservation ◽  
Human Wildlife Conflict

Conservation practitioners routinely work within complex social-ecological systems to address threats facing biodiversity and to promote positive human-wildlife interactions. Inadequate understanding of the direct and indirect, short- and long-term consequences of decision making within these dynamic systems can lead to misdiagnosed problems and interventions with perverse outcomes, exacerbating conflict. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling is a process that encourages stakeholder engagement, synthesizes research and knowledge, increases trust and consensus and improves transdisciplinary collaboration to solve these complex types of problems. Tiger conservation exemplifies a set of interventions in a complex social-ecological system. Wild tigers remain severely threatened by various factors, including habitat constraints, human-wildlife conflict, and persistent consumer demand for their body parts. Opinions differ on whether commercial captive tiger facilities reduce or increase the threat from poaching for trade, resulting in policy conflict among diverse stakeholder groups. This paper explains how we are working with international conservation partners in a virtual environment to utilize a participatory SD modeling approach with the goal of better understanding and promoting coexistence of humans and wild tigers. We highlight a step-by-step process that others might use to apply participatory SD modeling to address similar conservation challenges, building trust and consensus among diverse partners to reduce conflict and improve the efficacy of conservation interventions.

scholarly journals The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Nielsen ◽  
Erland H. Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Strategic Learning ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
The Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Methodological Aspects

The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC) thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

scholarly journals Testing successful Business Model using System Dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
J. Ganzarain ◽  
M. Ruiz ◽  
J.I. Igartua
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Continuous Change ◽  
Dynamic Complexity ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Systemic View

In our increasingly globalised economy, managing continuous change whilst remaining competitive and dynamic has become a central issue for firms in the industrial sector. One of the elements for obtaining this competitiveness is the value creation model of the firm. The most important challenges in firms are characterised by dynamic complexity which makes it difficult to understand factors in their context. Consequently management and decision making is hindered (Antunes et al., 2011). Business models are characterised by complexity and dynamism. Performance of the firm is a complex topic determined by the large amount of variables that can be involved in the system, and the different effects that influence the system in the short and long term. Due to this complexity a systemic view is required, that is, an holistic view of the whole system. Such a systemic view enables managers to make decisions based on evidence rather than intuition and personal experiences, as they understand how the whole system works. Thus, the main aim of this research is to use an empirical tool such as System Dynamics (SD), to support and sustain firms in the identification of new constructs related to their Business Model (BM).

Towards a Methodology for Monitoring and Analyzing the Supply Chain Behavior

2011 ◽  
pp. 186-208
Author(s):  
Reinaldo Moraga ◽  
Luis Rabelo ◽  
Alfonso Sarmiento
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Eigenvalue Analysis ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
And Performance

In this chapter, the authors present general steps towards a methodology that contributes to the advancement of prediction and mitigation of undesirable supply chain behavior within short- and long- term horizons by promoting a better understanding of the structure that determines the behavior modes. Through the integration of tools such as system dynamics, neural networks, eigenvalue analysis, and sensitivity analysis, this methodology (1) captures the dynamics of the supply chain, (2) detects changes and predicts the behavior based on these changes, and (3) defines needed modifications to mitigate the unwanted behaviors and performance. In the following sections, some background information is given from literature, the general steps of the proposed methodology are discussed, and finally a case study is briefly summarized.

scholarly journals A generic system dynamics model for simulating and evaluating the hydrological performance of reconstructed watersheds

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 865-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Keshta ◽  
A. Elshorbagy ◽  
S. Carey
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Absolute Relative Error ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Natural Watersheds ◽  
Generic System

Abstract. A generic system dynamics watershed (GSDW) model is developed and applied to five reconstructed watersheds located in the Athabasca mining basin, Alberta, Canada, and one natural watershed (boreal forest) located in Saskatchewan, Canada, to simulate various hydrological processes in reconstructed and natural watersheds. This paper uses the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute relative error (MARE), and the correlation coefficient (R) as the main performance indicators, in addition to the visual comparison. For the South Bison Hills (SBH), South West Sand Storage (SWSS) and Old Aspen (OA) simulated soil moisture, the RMSE values ranges between 2.5–4.8 mm, and the MARE ranges from 7% to 18%, except for the D2-cover it was 26% for the validation year. The R statistics ranges from 0.3 to 0.77 during the validation period. The error between the measured and simulated cumulative actual evapotranspiration (AET) flux for the SWSS, SBH, and the OA sites were 2%, 5%, and 8%, respectively. The developed GSDW model enables the investigation of the utility of different soil cover designs and evaluation of their performance. The model is capable of capturing the dynamics of water balance components, and may used to conduct short- and long- term predictions under different climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Delayed behavioural shifts undermine the sustainability of social–ecological systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1868) ◽  
pp. 20171192 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.-S. Lafuite ◽  
C. de Mazancourt ◽  
M. Loreau
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Sustainable Consumption ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Ecological Feedbacks ◽  
Mixed Equilibria

Natural habitat destruction and fragmentation generate a time-delayed loss of species and associated ecosystem services. As social–ecological systems (SESs) depend on a range of ecosystem services, lagged ecological dynamics may affect their long-term sustainability. Here, we investigate the role of consumption changes for sustainability, under a time-delayed ecological feedback on agricultural production. We use a stylized model that couples the dynamics of biodiversity, technology, human demography and compliance with a social norm prescribing sustainable consumption. Compliance with the sustainable norm reduces both the consumption footprint and the vulnerability of SESs to transient overshoot-and-collapse population crises. We show that the timing and interaction between social, demographic and ecological feedbacks govern the transient and long-term dynamics of the system. A sufficient level of social pressure (e.g. disapproval) applied on the unsustainable consumers leads to the stable coexistence of unsustainable and sustainable or mixed equilibria, where both defectors and conformers coexist. Under bistability conditions, increasing extinction debts reduces the resilience of the system, thus favouring abrupt regime shifts towards unsustainable pathways. Given recent evidence of large extinction debts, such results call for farsightedness and a better understanding of time delays when studying the sustainability of coupled SESs.

Robustness, institutions, and large-scale change in social-ecological systems: the Hohokam of the Phoenix Basin

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN M. ANDERIES
Keyword(s):  
Formal Model ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Phoenix Basin ◽  
The Phoenix

Societies frequently generate public infrastructure and institutional arrangements in order to mediate short-term environmental fluctuations. However, the social and ecological consequences of activities dealing with short-term disturbances may increase the vulnerability of the system to infrequent events or to long-term change in patterns of short-term variability. Exploring this possibility requires the study of long-term, transformational change. The archaeological record provides many examples of long-term change, such as the Hohokam who occupied the Phoenix Basin for over a thousand years and developed a complex irrigation society. In the eleventh and fourteenth centuries, the Hohokam society experienced reductions in complexity and scale possibly associated with regional climatic events. We apply a framework designed to explore robustness in coupled social-ecological systems to the Hohokam Cultural Sequence. Based on this analysis, a stylized formal model is developed to explore the possibility that the success of the Hohokam irrigation system and associated social structure may have increased their vulnerability to rare climactic shocks.

scholarly journals Long-term perspectives on circumpolar social-ecological systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 549 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Sean P.A. Desjardins ◽  
Peter D. Jordan ◽  
T. Max Friesen ◽  
Mary-Louise Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological

System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy

2013 ◽  
Vol 378 ◽  
pp. 483-486
Author(s):  
Yu Ning Wang ◽  
Hui Ming Zeng ◽  
Bin Qing Tang ◽  
Bin Xiang Hu
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Competitive Ability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Policy Suggestions

Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.

scholarly journals Comparisons of historical Dutch commons inform about the long-term dynamics of social-ecological systems

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256803
Author(s):  
Anders Forsman ◽  
Tine De Moor ◽  
René van Weeren ◽  
Mike Farjam ◽  
Molood Ale Ebrahim Dehkordi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Depletion ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Shared Resources ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approaches ◽  
Past Experiences

Human societies and natural ecosystems are under threat by growing populations, overexploitation of natural resources and climate change. This calls for more sustainable utilization of resources based on past experiences and insights from many different disciplines. Interdisciplinary approaches to studies of historical commons have potential to identify drivers of change and keys to success in the past, and offer advice about the management and use of shared resources in contemporary and future systems. We address these issues by applying an ecological perspective to historical data on social-ecological systems. We perform comparisons and time series analyses for nine successful Dutch commons for which high-resolution data on the regulatory activities and use of shared resources is available for on average 380 years (range 236 to 568) during the period 1300 to 1972. Within commons, institutional developments were oscillating, with periods of intense regulatory activity being separated by periods of low activity, and with the dynamics of regulations being largely independent across commons. Ecological theory posits that species that occupy similar niches should show correlated responses to environmental challenges; however, commons using more similar resources did not have more parallel or similar institutional developments. One notable exception was that sanctioning was more frequent in commons that directed more regulatory activities towards non-renewable subsoil resources, whereas there was no association between sanctioning and the use of renewable resources. This might indicate that commoners were aware of potential resource depletion and attempted to influence freeriding by actively trying to solve the underlying social dilemmas. Sanctioning regulations were more frequent during the first than during the second part of a common’s life, indicating that while sanctioning might have been important for the establishment of commons it was not key to the long-term persistence of historical commons.

scholarly journals Palaeoenvironmental proxies indicate long-term development of agro-pastoralist landscapes in Inner Asian mountains

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Spate ◽  
Mumtaz A. Yatoo ◽  
Dan Penny ◽  
Mohammad Ajmal Shah ◽  
Alison Betts
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Archaeological Research ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Environmental Perturbations ◽  
Social Ecological ◽  
Arid Conditions ◽  
Mountain Landscapes ◽  
Term Management

AbstractA growing body of archaeological research on agro-pastoralist populations of the Inner Asian mountains indicates that these groups adapted various systems of mobile herding and cultivation to ecotopes across the region from as early as 5000 BP. It has been argued that these adaptations allowed the development of flexible social-ecological systems well suited to the long-term management of these mountain landscapes. At present, less attention has been paid to examining the long-term ecological legacy of these adaptations within the sedimentary or palaeoenvironmental record. Here we present sediment, palynomorph and charcoal data that we interpret as indicating agro-pastoralist environmental perturbations, taken from three cores at middle and high altitudes in the Kashmir Valley at the southern end of the Inner Asian mountains. Our data indicate spatially and temporally discontinuous patterns of agro-pastoralist land use beginning close to 4000 BP. Periods of intensification of upland herding are often coincident with phases of regional social or environmental change, in particular we find the strongest signals for agro-pastoralism in the environmental record contemporary with regionally arid conditions. These patterns support previous arguments that specialised agro-pastoralist ecologies across the region are well placed to respond to past and future climate deteriorations. Our data indicating long-term co-evolution of humans and landscape in the study area also have implications for the ongoing management of environments generally perceived as “pristine” or “wilderness”.

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