scholarly journals Simulation of regional climate models of total cloud fraction in Morocco for the period of 2020-2050

2018 ◽  
pp. 21-27
Author(s):  
El Hadri Youssef ◽  
V. M. Khokhlov
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
The Future

The Moroccan energy system is highly dependent on external energy markets. The use of solar energy is one of the most promising ways in the development of renewable energy sources. At the moment, there are several scenarios for the development of renewable energy in Morocco diverging only in quantitative assessments. All of them are aimed at increasing the generation of green energy, from the complete satisfaction of all needs of Moroccan consumers to the opportunity of exporting some of its environmentally friendly electricity to Europe. Estimation of energy efficiency of solar installations is usually carried out on the basis of calculations of solar radiation arrival in the presence of cloudless sky. Clouds significantly reduce amount of solar radiation and sunshine duration. This study is aimed at determination of possible quantitative parameters of the total cloud cover and the areas in which the cloud cover would have the least impact on the amount of incoming solar radiation in Morocco in 2020-2050. The article presents the results of simulation of total cloud fraction using 11 regional climate models of CORDEX project for the period of 2020-2050 in Morocco. For the period of 2020-2050 the average values of total cloud fraction on the territory of Morocco will have the smallest values within the plains located near the border with Algeria on the territory of the prefecture of Sous-Massa lying at the foot of the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas. The analysis of the annual regime of total cloud fraction showed that in the future it will be of a different nature in different parts of the country due to various factors affecting its formation. The area with the smallest volumes of monthly total cloud fraction will lie within the territory the southern part of prefecture Draa-Tafilalet and prefectures Sous-Massa, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab excluding their coastal parts of the Atlantic Ocean. In the future most of the territory of Morocco will be characterized by a low amount of total cloud fraction, which, in its turn, will have an insignificant effect on the amount of solar radiation entering to the underlying surface of these areas. In terms of solar power, the best conditions will exist at the southern parts of Morocco, excluding the coast where the total cloud fraction will have the least impact on the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface and on sunshine duration.

scholarly journals Global Radiative Flux and Cloudiness Variability for the Period 1959–2010 in Belgium: A Comparison between Reanalyses and the Regional Climate Model MAR

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Coraline Wyard ◽  
Sébastien Doutreloup ◽  
Alexandre Belleflamme ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Xavier Fettweis
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Radiative Flux ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
The Mean

The use of regional climate models (RCMs) can partly reduce the biases in global radiative flux (Eg↓) that are found in reanalysis products and global models, as they allow for a finer spatial resolution and a finer parametrisation of surface and atmospheric processes. In this study, we assess the ability of the MAR («Modèle Atmosphérique Régional») RCM to reproduce observed changes in Eg↓, and we investigate the added value of MAR with respect to reanalyses. Simulations were performed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km for the period 1959–2010 by forcing MAR with different reanalysis products: ERA40/ERA-interim, NCEP/NCAR-v1, ERA-20C, and 20CRV2C. Measurements of Eg↓ from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and from the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB), as well as cloud cover observations from Belgocontrol and RMIB, were used for the evaluation of the MAR model and the forcing reanalyses. Results show that MAR enables largely reducing the mean biases that are present in the reanalyses. The trend analysis shows that only MAR forced by ERA40/ERA-interim shows historical trends, which is probably because the ERA40/ERA-interim has a better horizontal resolution and assimilates more observations than the other reanalyses that are used in this study. The results suggest that the solar brightening observed since the 1980s in Belgium has mainly been due to decreasing cloud cover.

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

<p>As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.</p><p>The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).</p><p>Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.</p><p>The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014</p><p> </p>

Impact of aerosols on the future Euro-Mediterranean climate: results from the CORDEX FPS-Aerosol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Lola Corre ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Shuping Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Future

<p>The Euro-Mediterranean region is subject to numerous and various aerosol loads, which interact with radiation, clouds and atmospheric dynamics, with ensuing impact on regional climate. However up to now, aerosol variations are hardly taken into account in most regional climate simulations, although anthropogenic emissions have been dramatically reduced in Europe since the 1980s. Moreover, inconsistencies between regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving global model (GCM) have recently been identified in terms of future radiation and temperature evolution, which could be related to the differences in aerosol forcing. <br>The present study aims at assessing the role of aerosols in the future evolution of the Euro-Mediterranean climate, using a specific multi-model protocol carried out in the Flagship Pilot Study "Aerosol" of the CORDEX program. This protocol relies on three simulations for each RCM: a historical run (1971-2000) and two future RCP8.5 simulations (2021-2050), a first one with evolving aerosols, and a second one with the same aerosols as in the historical period. Six modeling groups have taken part in this protocol, providing nine triplets of simulations. The analysis of these simulations will be presented here. First results show that the future evolution of aerosols has a significant impact on the evolution of surface radiation and surface temperature. In addition RCM runs taking into account the evolution of aerosols are simulating climate change signal closer to the one of their driving GCM than those with constant aerosols.</p>

scholarly journals Solar Irradiance and Temperature Variability and Projected Trends Analysis in Burundi

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
The Future

This paper assessed the variability and projected trends of solar irradiance and temperature in the East of Burundi. Observed temperature from meteorological stations and the MERRA-2 data set provided by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center are used over the historical period 1976–2005. In addition, solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered. Furthermore, projection data from eight Regional Climate Models were used over the periods 2026–2045 and 2066–2085. The variability analysis was performed using a standardized index. Projected trends and changes in the future climate were respectively detected through Mann-Kendall and t-tests. The findings over the historical period revealed increase temperature and decrease in solar irradiance over the last decades of the 20th century. At a monthly scale, the variability analysis showed that excesses in solar irradiance coincide with the dry season, which led to the conclusion that it may be a period of high production for solar energy. In the future climate, upward trends in temperature are expected over the two future periods, while no significant trends are forecasted in solar irradiance over the entire studied region. However, slight decreases and significant changes in solar irradiance have been detected over all regions.

scholarly journals Quantification of the Expected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Quantiles under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garijo ◽  
Luis Mediero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Climate model projections can be used to assess the expected behaviour of extreme precipitations in the future due to climate change. The European part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) provides precipitation projections for the future under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through regionalised Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs by a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this work, 12 combinations of GCM and RCM under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) supplied by the EURO-CORDEX are analysed for the Iberian Peninsula. Precipitation quantiles for a set of probabilities of non-exceedance are estimated by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moments. Precipitation quantiles expected in the future are compared with the precipitation quantiles in the control period for each climate model. An approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is developed in order to assess the uncertainty from the climate model projections. Expected changes in the future are compared with the sampling uncertainty in the control period. Thus, statistically significant changes are identified. The higher the significance threshold, the fewer cells with significant changes are identified. Consequently, a set of maps are obtained in order to assist the decision-making process in subsequent climate change studies.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal trends of hydrological components: the case of the Tafna basin (northwestern Algeria)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amina Mami ◽  
Djilali Yebdri ◽  
Sabine Sauvage ◽  
Mélanie Raimonet ◽  
José Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Future

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase in the future in the Mediterranean region, including Algeria. The Tafna basin, vulnerable to drought, is one of the most important catchments ensuring water self-sufficiency in northwestern Algeria. The objective of this study is to estimate the evolution of hydrological components of the Tafna basin, throughout 2020–2099, comparing to the period 1981–2000. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), calibrated and validated on the Tafna basin with good Nash at the outlet 0.82, is applied to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological components, over the basin throughout 2020–2099. The application is produced using a precipitation and temperature minimum/maximum of an ensemble of climate model outputs obtained from a combination of eight global climate models and two regional climate models of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The results of this study show that the decrease of precipitation in January, on average −25%, ranged between −5% and −44% in the future. This diminution affects all of the water components and fluxes of a watershed, namely, in descending order of impact: the river discharge causing a decrease −36%, the soil water available −31%, the evapotranspiration −30%, and the lateral flow −29%.

Analysis of EURO-CORDEX sub-daily rainfall simulations and derived event characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Nanni ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Rosaria E. Musumeci ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Future

<p>Climate change is a phenomenon that is claimed to be responsible for a significant alteration of the precipitation regime in different regions worldwide and for the induced potential changes on related hydrological hazards. In particular, some consensus has raised about the fact that climate changes can induce a shift to shorter but more intense rainfall events, causing an intensification of urban and flash flooding hazards.  Regional climate models (RCMs) are a useful tool for trying to predict the impacts of climate change on hydrological events, although their application may lead to significant differences when different models are adopted. For this reason, it is of key importance to ascertain the quality of regional climate models (RCMs), especially with reference to their ability to reproduce the main climatological regimes with respect to an historical period. To this end, several studies have focused on the analysis of annual or monthly data, while few studies do exist that analyze the sub-daily data that are made available by the regional climate projection initiatives. In this study, with reference to specific locations in eastern Sicily (Italy), we first evaluate historical simulations of precipitation data from selected RCMs belonging to the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) with high temporal resolution (three-hourly), in order to understand how they compare to fine-resolution observations. In particular, we investigate the ability to reproduce rainfall event characteristics, as well as annual maxima precipitation at different durations. With reference to rainfall event characteristics, we specifically focus on duration, intensity, and inter-arrival time between events. Annual maxima are analyzed at sub-daily durations. We then analyze the future simulations according to different Representative concentration scenarios. The proposed analysis highlights the differences between the different RCMs, supporting the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing the impacts in the considered locations, and to understand what trends for intense precipitation are to be expected in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 490-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Dirk Schindler ◽  
Simeon Potouridis ◽  
Andreas Matzarakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Energy Yield ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Assessment of future precipitation responses is crucial for various sectors which include tourism, agriculture, and energy yield. The study is focused on South Germany and aims to analyse the future spatio-temporal responses of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data were derived and analysed from a number of regional climate models (RCMs), while climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, under the A1B and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Spatial interpolation and distribution of precipitation was performed using the ordinary Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that precipitation in South Germany is expected to increase for both applied scenarios by 10–12%. Seasonal analysis indicated that with the exception of the summer season (JJA), where precipitation by the end of the century is expected to face an 8–16% reduction, in general it will show an increase in the upcoming years. Spatial analysis indicated that areas located on the highlands will face significant reductions that will reach up to 20%. Conversely, areas located in the lowlands will have increased precipitation. The increase in precipitation amount can have a direct positive impact on the sustainable development of tourism, agriculture, energy yield and water resources in South Germany.

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high resolution, site–specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Hofmann ◽  
Claudia Volosciuk ◽  
Martin Dubrovský ◽  
Douglas Maraun ◽  
Hans R. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Research Knowledge ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Extended periods without precipitation observed for example in Central Europe including Germany during the seasons from 2018 to 2020, can lead to water deficit and yield and quality losses for grape and wine production. However, irrigation infrastructure is largely non–existent. Regional climate models project changes of precipitation amounts and patterns, indicating an increase in frequency of occurrence of comparable situations in the future. In order to assess possible impacts of climate change on the water budget of grapevines, a water balance model was developed, which accounts for the large heterogeneity of vineyards with respect to their soil water storage capacity, evapotranspiration as a function of slope and aspect, and viticultural management practices. The model was fed with data from soil maps (soil type and plant available water capacity), a digital elevation model, the European Union (EU) vineyard–register, observed weather data and future weather data provided by regional climate models and a stochastic weather generator. This allowed conducting a risk assessment of the drought stress occurrence for the wine–producing regions Rheingau and Hessische Bergstraße in Germany on the scale of individual vineyard plots. The simulations showed that the risk for drought stress varies substantially between vineyard sites but might increase for steep–slope regions in the future. Possible adaptation measures depend highly on local conditions and to make targeted use of the resource water, an intense interplay of different wine-industry stakeholders, research, knowledge transfer, and local authorities will be required.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Modeling over the Maritime Continent. Part I: New Parameterization for Convective Cloud Fraction

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1488-1503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca L. Gianotti ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Convective Cloud ◽  
Cloud Water ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
New Method ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Radiative Feedback

Abstract This paper describes a new method for parameterizing convective cloud fraction that can be used within large-scale climate models, and evaluates the new method using the Regional Climate Model, version 3 (RegCM3), coupled to the land surface scheme Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The horizontal extent of convective cloud cover is calculated by utilizing a relationship between the simulated amount of convective cloud water and typical observations of convective cloud water density. This formulation not only provides a physically meaningful basis for the simulation of convective cloud cover, but it is also spatially and temporally variable and independent of model resolution, rendering it generally applicable for large-scale climate models. Simulations over the Maritime Continent show that the new method allows for simulation of an essential convective–radiative feedback, which was absent in the existing version of RegCM3–IBIS, such that moist convection not only responds to diurnal variability at the earth’s surface but also impacts the solar radiation received at the surface via cumulus cloud production. The impact on model performance was mixed, but it is considered that appropriate representation of the convective–radiative feedback and improved physical realism resulting from the new cloud fraction parameterization will likely have positive benefits elsewhere. The role of convective rainfall production in the convective–radiative feedback and a new parameterization for convective autoconversion are addressed in Part II of this paper series.

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