scholarly journals Investigation of maritime accidents in the strait of Istanbul in the perspective of navigational safety: İSTANBULMAX ship type recommendation

2022 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-88
Author(s):  
Gizem Kodak ◽  
Gökhan Kara ◽  
Murat Yıldız ◽  
Aydın Şalcı

In this study, maritime accidents that occurred in the Strait of Istanbul over a 10-year period were evaluated in terms of ship-based risk factors. The frequency analysis was performed using the R - Studio program language. In this context, the accident data obtained from the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure Main Search and Rescue Coordination Center were matched with the ship information accessed from Türk Loydu database. Thus, ship origin risk factors to be used within the scope of the study were determined and 10 different criteria were included in the analysis. These are ship length, ship breadth, ship draught, ship age, ship DWT, turning point, turning radius, L/B ratio, B/T ratio and number of propellers. The process of creating a data set was completed by spatially filtering the data and classifying of the ship-based causes accidents. The variables were examined with frequency analysis in the perspective of the Law of Large Numbers. With the results obtained, optimum characteristics based on ship origin risk factors have been revealed for each ship type that will pass through the Strait.

Author(s):  
Jochen Rau

Statistical mechanics concerns the transition from the microscopic to the macroscopic realm. On a macroscopic scale new phenomena arise that have no counterpart in the microscopic world. For example, macroscopic systems have a temperature; they might undergo phase transitions; and their dynamics may involve dissipation. How can such phenomena be explained? This chapter discusses the characteristic differences between the microscopic and macroscopic realms and lays out the basic challenge of statistical mechanics. It suggests how, in principle, this challenge can be tackled with the help of conservation laws and statistics. The chapter reviews some basic notions of classical probability theory. In particular, it discusses the law of large numbers and illustrates how, despite the indeterminacy of individual events, statistics can make highly accurate predictions about totals and averages.


Author(s):  
Michael W. Pratt ◽  
M. Kyle Matsuba

Chapter 6 reviews research on the topic of vocational/occupational development in relation to the McAdams and Pals tripartite personality framework of traits, goals, and life stories. Distinctions between types of motivations for the work role (as a job, career, or calling) are particularly highlighted. The authors then turn to research from the Futures Study on work motivations and their links to personality traits, identity, generativity, and the life story, drawing on analyses and quotes from the data set. To illustrate the key concepts from this vocation chapter, the authors end with a case study on Charles Darwin’s pivotal turning point, his round-the-world voyage as naturalist for the HMS Beagle. Darwin was an emerging adult in his 20s at the time, and we highlight the role of this journey as a turning point in his adult vocational development.


2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 1127-1163
Author(s):  
Jie Yen Fan ◽  
Kais Hamza ◽  
Peter Jagers ◽  
Fima C. Klebaner

AbstractA general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the population as a measure-valued process and obtain its asymptotics as the population grows with the environmental carrying capacity. Thus, a deterministic approximation is given, in the form of a law of large numbers, as well as a central limit theorem. This general framework is then adapted to model sexual reproduction, with a special section on serial monogamic mating systems.


2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haluk Ay ◽  
Anthony Luscher ◽  
Carolyn Sommerich

Purpose The purpose of this study is to design and develop a testing device to simulate interaction between human hand–arm dynamics, right-angle (RA) computer-controlled power torque tools and joint-tightening task-related variables. Design/methodology/approach The testing rig can simulate a variety of tools, tasks and operator conditions. The device includes custom data-acquisition electronics and graphical user interface-based software. The simulation of the human hand–arm dynamics is based on the rig’s four-bar mechanism-based design and mechanical components that provide adjustable stiffness (via pneumatic cylinder) and mass (via plates) and non-adjustable damping. The stiffness and mass values used are based on an experimentally validated hand–arm model that includes a database of model parameters. This database is with respect to gender and working posture, corresponding to experienced tool operators from a prior study. Findings The rig measures tool handle force and displacement responses simultaneously. Peak force and displacement coefficients of determination (R2) between rig estimations and human testing measurements were 0.98 and 0.85, respectively, for the same set of tools, tasks and operator conditions. The rig also provides predicted tool operator acceptability ratings, using a data set from a prior study of discomfort in experienced operators during torque tool use. Research limitations/implications Deviations from linearity may influence handle force and displacement measurements. Stiction (Coulomb friction) in the overall rig, as well as in the air cylinder piston, is neglected. The rig’s mechanical damping is not adjustable, despite the fact that human hand–arm damping varies with respect to gender and working posture. Deviations from these assumptions may affect the correlation of the handle force and displacement measurements with those of human testing for the same tool, task and operator conditions. Practical implications This test rig will allow the rapid assessment of the ergonomic performance of DC torque tools, saving considerable time in lineside applications and reducing the risk of worker injury. DC torque tools are an extremely effective way of increasing production rate and improving torque accuracy. Being a complex dynamic system, however, the performance of DC torque tools varies in each application. Changes in worker mass, damping and stiffness, as well as joint stiffness and tool program, make each application unique. This test rig models all of these factors and allows quick assessment. Social implications The use of this tool test rig will help to identify and understand risk factors that contribute to musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) associated with the use of torque tools. Tool operators are subjected to large impulsive handle reaction forces, as joint torque builds up while tightening a fastener. Repeated exposure to such forces is associated with muscle soreness, fatigue and physical stress which are also risk factors for upper extremity injuries (MSDs; e.g. tendinosis, myofascial pain). Eccentric exercise exertions are known to cause damage to muscle tissue in untrained individuals and affect subsequent performance. Originality/value The rig provides a novel means for quantitative, repeatable dynamic evaluation of RA powered torque tools and objective selection of tightening programs. Compared to current static tool assessment methods, dynamic testing provides a more realistic tool assessment relative to the tool operator’s experience. This may lead to improvements in tool or controller design and reduction in associated musculoskeletal discomfort in operators.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Xiaochen Ma ◽  
Qunying Wu

In this article, we research some conditions for strong law of large numbers (SLLNs) for weighted sums of extended negatively dependent (END) random variables under sublinear expectation space. Our consequences contain the Kolmogorov strong law of large numbers and the Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers for weighted sums of extended negatively dependent random variables. Furthermore, our results extend strong law of large numbers for some sequences of random variables from the traditional probability space to the sublinear expectation space context.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 1571
Author(s):  
Irina Shevtsova ◽  
Mikhail Tselishchev

We investigate the proximity in terms of zeta-structured metrics of generalized negative binomial random sums to generalized gamma distribution with the corresponding parameters, extending thus the zeta-structured estimates of the rate of convergence in the Rényi theorem. In particular, we derive upper bounds for the Kantorovich and the Kolmogorov metrics in the law of large numbers for negative binomial random sums of i.i.d. random variables with nonzero first moments and finite second moments. Our method is based on the representation of the generalized negative binomial distribution with the shape and exponent power parameters no greater than one as a mixed geometric law and the infinite divisibility of the negative binomial distribution.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Chen ◽  
Zengjing Chen

Abstract In this article, we employ the elementary inequalities arising from the sub-linearity of Choquet expectation to give a new proof for the generalized law of large numbers under Choquet expectations induced by 2-alternating capacities with mild assumptions. This generalizes the Linderberg–Feller methodology for linear probability theory to Choquet expectation framework and extends the law of large numbers under Choquet expectation from the strong independent and identically distributed (iid) assumptions to the convolutional independence combined with the strengthened first moment condition.


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