scholarly journals The Economic Effect of Trade Openness and Estimation of Structural Change: Time-Series Analysis of Error Correction Model during 1956-2015 in South Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Jae-Hyung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Analysis Of Error

Causality between VAT and economic growth in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds testing approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin ◽  
Normiza Bakar ◽  
Oluwaseyi Hammed Musibau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Value Added Tax(VAT) is a consumption tax imposed at every stage of consumption level whose burden is burned by final consumer of goods and services. In most developing economies in the world, VAT as a source of revenue to the government that has been notable for its significant role in ensuring economic efficiency. However, VAT revenue has been underutilised in Nigeria due to a high level of corruption in the process of administering the tax. This study examines the impact of VAT, domestic investment and trade openness on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2016 using ARDL techniques. The research design is time series, and the data were analysed using time series unit root test, error correction model regression, short run and long run ARDL. The result found that VAT, domestic investment and trade openness had a positive and significant impact on real GDP. Also, corruption index is negative also significant in the long run. In the same vein, past value added tax had a negative and weak significant impact on real gross domestic product indicating convergence to long-run causality between economic growths and VAT and economic growth. The Error Correction Model (ECM (-1)) coefficient had a negative and statistically significant sign. This shows that 39 percent can quickly correct short-run deviation. The study, therefore,  recommends that tax administrative loopholes should be plugged for tax revenue to contribute immensely to the development of the economy since past VAT had a significant impact on economic growth.

scholarly journals Moving forward with time series analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 205316801773223
Author(s):  
Peter K. Enns ◽  
Nathan J. Kelly ◽  
Takaaki Masaki ◽  
Patrick C. Wohlfarth
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Standard Procedures ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
General Error

In a recent Research and Politics article, we showed that for many types of time series data, concerns about spurious relationships can be overcome by following standard procedures associated with cointegration tests and the general error correction model (GECM). Matthew Lebo and Patrick Kraft (LK) incorrectly argue that our recommended approach will lead researchers to identify false (i.e., spurious) relationships. In this article, we show how LK’s response is incorrect or misleading in multiple ways. Most importantly, when we correct their simulations, their results reinforce our previous findings, highlighting the utility of the GECM when estimated and interpreted correctly.

scholarly journals DAMPAK PERUBAHAN KURS RUPIAH,LAJU INFLASI DAN FLUKTUASI KURS VALUTA ASING PADA PEFORMA INDEK HARGA SAHAM SYARIAH INDONESIA (ISSI)

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 573-580
Author(s):  
Hilda Mary ◽  
Annisa Elly Octaviani ◽  
Laynita Sari ◽  
Elfiswandi Elfiswandi ◽  
Zefriyenni Zefriyenni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Purposive Sampling

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh kurs rupiah, laju inflasi dan kurs valuta asing pada peforma indeks harga saham syariah Indonesia dengan kajian Jakarta Islamic indek (JII). Metode pengumpulan sampel dengan menggunakan purposive sampling, dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 27 perusahaan yang terdaftar di Jakarta Islamic indek. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah adalah regresi linear berganda dan menggunakan data runtut waktu (Time Series) dengan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian yang didapatkan berdasarkan Uji Parsial (Uji t) diperoleh : (a) Tidak terdapat pengaruh dan signifikan variabel Perubahan kurs rupiah terhadap Harga saham syariah (b) Tidak terdapat pengaruh dan signifikan variabel Laju inflasi terhadap Harga saham syariah (c) Tidak terdapat pengaruh dan signifikan variabel Fluktuasi kurs valuta asing terhadap Harga saham syariah (d) Terdapat pengaruh dan signifikan variabel Perubahan kurs rupiah, Laju inflasi dan Fluktuasi kurs valuta asing terhadap Harga saham syariah.

scholarly journals Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation: Empirical Evidences from Pakistan (1976-2010).

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4II) ◽  
pp. 853-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sehar Munir ◽  
Adiqa Kausar Kiani
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Vector Error

This study empirically verifies the existence of significant relationship between inflation and trade openness for Pakistan using annual time-series data for the period of 1976 to 2010. The basic objective of this study is to examine the Romer‘s hypothesis for Pakistan with real agriculture value added, real exchange rate, real gross domestic product, financial market openness, money and quasi money and used trade openness, import openness and export openness ratios separately as explanatory variables with inflation rate as dependent variables. For this purpose, we have used multivariate Johansen (1998) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Approach and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the expected empirical findings shows that there is a significant positive long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which rejects the existence of Romer‘s hypothesis for Pakistan. JEL classification: B26, E31, P24, P44 Keywords: Trade Openness, Inflation, Unit Root Testing, Multivariate Cointegration Approach, Vector Error Correction Model, Pakistan

scholarly journals Credit Risk Determinants in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Amin Yusuf Efendi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Spurious Regression

Credit is the main business of the banking industry, therefore, in running the business, the bank is always overshadowed by the credit risk the which can be determined by the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL). The development of technology, finance digital brings the outside could impact on the financial industry both positive and negative. The purpose of this study was to analyze the interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), a dummy finance digitalization policies in the long term and the short term of the non-performing loan (NPL) of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia The analytical method used in this research is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), The Data used in this research is secondary quarterly time series data from the 2008 quarter 1-2017 4. The time series of data are not stationar Often that can cause spurious regression results, the exact models used is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), This models may explain the behavior of short-term and long-term. The results Showed in the short-term variable interest rates significanly to non-performing loans, while in the long-term variable interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP Significantly, non-performing loans. Kredit merupakan bisnis utama dari industri perbankan, oleh karena itu dalam menjalankan bisnisnya, bank selalu dibayangi oleh risiko kredit yang dapat diketahui melalui rasio non-performing loans (NPL). Perkembangan teknologi, menghadirkan digital finance yang membawa dampak luar bisa terhadap industri keuangan baik positif dan negatif. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis suku bunga, inflasi, kurs, produk domestik bruto (PDB) dummy kebijakan digitalisasi keuangan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek terhadap non-performing loan (NPL) bank umum konvensional di Indonesia  Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtut waktu kuartalan dari 2008 kuartal 1 – 2017 kuartal 4. Data runtun waktu sering tidak stationar sehingga bisa menyebabkan hasil regresi palsu (spurious regression), Model yang tepat digunakan adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM), model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dalam jangka pendek variabel suku bunga berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non performing loan, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang variabel suku bunga, kurs, dan PDB berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non perfoming loan.

scholarly journals The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erni Panca Kurniasih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan  bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah 

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