scholarly journals Une nouvelle approche pour immuniser nos forêts contre l'incertitude (essai)

2018 ◽  
Vol 169 (4) ◽  
pp. 199-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Messier ◽  
Fanny Maure ◽  
Núria Aquilué

A new approach to immunizing our forests against uncertainty (essay) In the present context of global change, managing our forests is a major challenge, in particular because of the great uncertainty associated with this change. Faced with this new reality, our methods of monitoring and forecasting the developments in our forests are no longer effective enough, so we have to review how we manage our forests. Complexity theory provides a conceptual framework for our approach, which leads us to adopt a more holistic and flexible way of seeing the world when planning our forest management. We must therefore accept that forests are complex and dynamic systems, and for that reason, never completely predictable. By incorporating the functional properties of trees and the complex spatial network of their populations in our forest management, and encouraging greater functional diversity and connectivity, we can immunize the forests against present and future stresses.

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 533-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjolijn Verspoor

Presented at the 16th World Congress of Applied Linguistics (AILA), Beijing Foreign Studies University, China, 24 August 2011.The goal of the symposium was to show that a Dynamic systems/Complexity theory (DST) perspective will provide important insights into the L2 developmental process. Kees de Bot (University of Groningen) introduced the symposium by outlining the basic characteristics of a dynamic system: all factors or variables involved in language development are interconnected, interact with each other over time, and affect each other differently over time on different time scales. Initial conditions such as the learner's L1, motivation or level of proficiency are crucial and systems self-organize over time. Development is not linear and learners are not all the same, so variability and variation are the norm.


2018 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Grigoryev ◽  
V. A. Pavlyushina

The phenomenon of economic growth is studied by economists and statisticians in various aspects for a long time. Economic theory is devoted to assessing factors of growth in the tradition of R. Solow, R. Barrow, W. Easterly and others. During the last quarter of the century, however, the institutionalists, namely D. North, D. Wallis, B. Weingast as well as D. Acemoglu and J. Robinson, have shown the complexity of the problem of development on the part of socioeconomic and political institutions. As a result, solving the problem of how economic growth affects inequality between countries has proved extremely difficult. The modern world is very diverse in terms of development level, and the article offers a new approach to the formation of the idea of stylized facts using cluster analysis. The existing statistics allows to estimate on a unified basis the level of GDP production by 174 countries of the world for 1992—2016. The article presents a structured picture of the world: the distribution of countries in seven clusters, different in levels of development. During the period under review, there was a strong per capita GDP growth in PPP in the middle of the distribution, poverty in various countries declined markedly. At the same time, in 1992—2016, the difference increased not only between rich and poor groups of countries, but also between clusters.


Author(s):  
Ekta Y

As IT sector is ruling the world now,confidentiality and security of information has become the most important inseparable aspect in information communication system. Keeping in view the same, a new approach called Visual Cryptography (VC) has been suggested by many researchers but there are some limitations with this scheme and cheating is one of the main problem among them. This paper intends to show the basis of cheating in VC in terms of cheating process, its detection methods and its prevention methods suggested by various researchers along with their merits and demerits. Finally, a good Cheating Immune Visual Cryptography Scheme (CIVCS) has been discussed which states the properties to be adopted by every Visual Cryptography scheme to make it immune to cheating attacks.


Author(s):  
Yu.V. IRKHIN

The article analyzes the problems, achievements and contradictions in the genesis of the contemporary postmodern discourse. The author has carried out complex research, systematized and showed the main features and differences of postmodernism and metamodernism, as well as the role of neoliberal values in their development. The author has considered a new approach to the study of society and politics: neomodernist discourse with the dominant conservative values, opposing postmodern theory, methodology and practice he has identified the features of neomodernism: historicism, patriotism and healthy nationalism, populism, transactionalismn and realism in the world politics.


Author(s):  
Arun Kumar L.S

International business is essential for the countries to generate Economic growth or to increase in exports and reduce in imports, it encompasses all commercial and economic activities between the nations to promote the ideas, resources, transfer the goods and services, technologies across the national borders. In every country has limited resources therefore a country cannot produce all the goods and services that it requires. The present context of the world, there is imbalance in production and supply factors due to Covid-19 pandemic, which has resulted in market imbalances (demand and supply). The world economy has been hit hard by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, as on June end more than ten 10 million people around the globe had been affected by this pandemic, India, USA and others are worst hit countries with decrease in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and increase in unemployment rate. It may be useful to also note that prolonged lockdowns will eventually imply production shortfalls, may lead to increase in unemployment; decrease in demand for products, slowly running out stocks. In recent forecast of World Trade Organisation (WTO) indicated a clear fall in world trade between 13 per cent and 32 per cent in 2020, perhaps the highest fall since the Great Depression of 1930s. India and world can overcome the challenges by specific government fiscal and monetary policies, by providing economic relief packages and increase in employment opportunities by digitalisation in all the sectors of the economy to increase in accountability, convenience, and gross production, and investment, job security to casual labours or migrant workers. These factors may change the world present situation to productive or welfare economy. The purpose of the research paper is to explain Economic and Business crisis, due to covid-19 in present situation in India and the world. KEY WORDS: C0VID-19, GDP, ECONOMY and GLOBAL CRISIS.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Kofi Awuviry-Newton ◽  
Kylie Wales ◽  
Meredith Tavener ◽  
Paul Kowal ◽  
Julie Byles

Abstract Ghana's older population is projected to increase in coming decades and as a result will see increasing care needs. Understanding the functional difficulties older adults experience, and the associated factors, will help identify relevant intervention to assist older adults in meeting their care needs. This study aimed to analyse the prevalence of functional difficulties among older adults in Ghana, and examine how the World Health Organization International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (WHO-ICF) conceptual framework can relate to toileting difficulty to understand the factors that increase older adults’ care needs. Data were for 5,096 adults aged ⩾50 years from the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Ghana Wave 1. Difficulties were assessed using self-reported difficulty on 22 functional items, including toileting. Multivariate logistic regression tested associations between toileting and other factors as related to the WHO-ICF conceptual framework. Older adults reported climbing one flight of stairs without resting as a common functional difficulty. Difficulty eating was the item least identified. Toileting difficulty was ranked second among five total activities of daily living difficulties. Age, marital status, self-reported health, memory, bodily pain, short- and far-distance vision, obesity, stroke, chronic lung disease, trust at individual and neighbourhood level, toilet facility type, socialising with co-workers, and public and religious meeting attendance were statistically significantly associated with toileting difficulty in the final parsimonious model. Post-hoc analysis testing interaction revealed that interaction existed between female sex and never married marital status (p = 0.04), and obesity and widowed marital status (p = 0.01), with toileting as the outcome. A significant level of functional difficulty existed among Ghanaian older adults in this sample. Toileting difficulty was associated with factors across different components in the WHO-ICF, emphasising functional, social and environmental factors related to this fundamental human activity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  

Abstract As vaccine hesitancy and decreasing immunization coverage have been identified by the World Health Organization as global alarming health threats, it is of crucial importance to exploit the potential offered by digital solutions to enhance immunization programmes and ultimately increase vaccine uptake. We have previously developed and published a conceptual framework outlining how digitalization can support immunization at different levels: i) when adopted for health education and communication purposes, ii) in the context of immunization programmes delivery, and iii) in the context of immunization information systems management. The proposed workshop is co-organized by the EUPHA Digital health section (EUPHA-DH) and EUPHA Infectious diseases control section (EUPHA-IDC) and aims at discussing the current AVAILABILITY, USE and IMPACT of digital solutions to support immunization programmes at the international, national and local level, as well as, debating on how technical infrastructures on one side and normative and policy frameworks on the other side enable their implementation. We plan to have a rich set of contributions covering the following: the presentation of a conceptual framework identifying and mapping the digital solutions' features having the potential to bolster immunization programmes, namely: i) Personalization and precision; ii) Automation; iii) Prediction; iv) Data analytics (including big data and interoperability); and v) Interaction; the dissemination of key results and final outputs of a Europe-wide funded project on the use of Information & Communication Technology to enhance immunization, with particular reference to the use and comparative impact of email remainders and personal electronic health records, as well as the results of an international survey conducted to map and collect best practices on the use of different digital solutions within immunization programmes at the national and regional level; the firsthand experience of the United Kingdom NHS Digital Child Health Programme which developed, implemented and is currently evaluating a number of solutions to increase childhood vaccination uptake in England, including an information standard and information sharing services developed to ensure that the details of children's vaccinations can be shared between different health care settings the perspective and experience of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for Europe and of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the global level of what has worked so far in the digitalization of immunization programmes around the world, what recommendations were developed and which barriers identified at the technical normative and policy level Key messages Digitalization has great potential to support immunization programmes but its practice and impact need to be measured. Country-level and international experiences have created qualitative and quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of digital intervention aimed at increasing vaccine uptake.


Author(s):  
Amerigo Caruso ◽  
Linda Hammann

AbstractProspero Balbo, the head of a leading Piedmontese noble family, followed a career path similar to that of the versatile French statesman Talleyrand. In the aftermath of 1789, Balbo served under four different regimes: the Old Regime monarchy, the Russian provisional administration of Piedmont in 1799, the Napoleonic empire, and the restored Savoy monarchy. After the short-lived revolutionary movement of 1821 in Sardinia-Piedmont, Prospero lost his job as interior minister and his son, Cesare, was forced into exile. The revolutionary waves of 1820–1821 were the most recent of numerous disruptive events and regime changes that jeopardized Europe and the Atlantic world between the late 1770 s and the early 1820 s. These five decades of revolutionary upheavals, wars, and persistent insecurity forced the traditional elites to mobilize their material, cultural, and social resources to preserve their prestige and power. Based on extensive archival research, this article examines the resilience-strengthening resources and strategies implemented by members of the Balbo family during periods of political turmoil. In doing so, the article aims to develop an analytical and conceptual framework to describe historical processes in terms of resilience and vulnerability. This new approach enables us to look afresh at elite transformations and at the dynamics of political change and continuity in early nineteenth-century Europe.


Author(s):  
Luzian Messmer ◽  
Braida Thom ◽  
Pius Kruetli ◽  
Evans Dawoe ◽  
Kebebew Assefa ◽  
...  

AbstractMany regions around the world are experiencing an increase in climate-related shocks, such as drought. This poses serious threats to farming activities and has major implications for sustaining rural livelihoods and food security. Farmers’ ability to respond to and withstand the increasing incidence of drought events needs to be strengthened and their resilience enhanced. Implementation of measures to enhance resilience is determined by decisions of farmers and it is important to understand the reasons behind their behavior. We assessed the viability of measures to enhance resilience of farmers to drought, by developing a general framework that covers economic-technical and psychological-cognitive aspects, here summarized under the terms (1) motivation and (2) feasibility. The conceptual framework was applied to cocoa farmers in Ghana and tef farmers in Ethiopia by using questionnaire-based surveys. A portfolio of five specific measures to build resilience (i.e., irrigation, shade trees, fire belts, bookkeeping, mulching, early mature varieties, weather forecast, reduced tillage, improved harvesting) in each country was evaluated with a closed-ended questionnaire that covered the various aspects of motivation and feasibility whereby farmers were asked to (dis)agree on a 5-point Likert scale. The results show that if the motivation mean score is increased by 0.1 units, the probability of implementation increases by 16.9% in Ghana and by 7.7% in Ethiopia. If the feasibility mean score is increased by 0.1 units, the probability of implementation increases by 24.9% in Ghana and by 11.9% in Ethiopia. We can conclude that motivation and feasibility matter, and we improve our understanding of measure implementation if we include both feasibility and motivation into viability assessments.


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