scholarly journals A 700 year record of Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability

2004 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 127-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Mayewski ◽  
Kirk A. Maasch ◽  
James W. C. White ◽  
Eric J. Steig ◽  
Eric Meyerson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
El Nino ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
Mode Switch ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractAnnually dated ice cores from West and East Antarctica provide proxies for past changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica and portions of the Southern Ocean, temperature in coastal West and East Antarctica, and the frequency of South Polar penetration of El Niño events. During the period AD 1700–1850, atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic and at least portions of the Southern Hemisphere underwent a mode switch departing from the out-of-phase alternation of multi-decadal long phases of EOF1 and EOF2 modes of the 850 hPa field over the Southern Hemisphere (as defined in the recent record by Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Thompson and Solomon, 2002) that characterizes the remainder of the 700 year long record. From AD 1700 to 1850, lower-tropospheric circulation was replaced by in-phase behavior of the Amundsen Sea Low component of EOF2 and the East Antarctic High component of EOF1. During the first phase of the mode switch, both West and East Antarctic temperatures declined, potentially in response to the increased extent of sea ice surrounding both regions. At the end of the mode switch, West Antarctic coastal temperatures rose and East Antarctic coastal temperatures fell, respectively, to their second highest and lowest of the record. Polar penetration of El Niño events increased during the mode switch. The onset of the AD 1700–1850 mode switch coincides with the extreme state of the Maunder Minimum in solar variability. Late 20th-century West Antarctic coastal temperatures are the highest in the record period, and East Antarctic coastal temperatures close to the lowest. Since AD 1700, extratropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere have experienced significant climate variability coincident with changes in both solar variability and greenhouse gases.

The Contribution of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Australian Summer Rainfall during El Niño Events

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 3734-3747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Alex Sen Gupta ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Caroline C. Ummenhofer ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract This study investigates the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events, with a focus on Australian climate. During El Niño episodes, the tropical Indian Ocean exhibits two types of SST response: a uniform “basinwide warming” and a dipole mode—the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). While the impacts of the IOD on climate have been extensively studied, the effects of the basinwide warming, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, have received less attention. The interannual basinwide warming response has important implications for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation because 1) it accounts for a greater portion of the Indian Ocean monthly SST variance than the IOD pattern and 2) its maximum amplitude occurs during austral summer to early autumn, when large parts of Australia, South America, and Africa experience their monsoon. Using observations and numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model forced with historical SST from 1949 to 2005 over different tropical domains, the authors show that the basinwide warming leads to a Gill–Matsuno-type response that reinforces the anomalies caused by changes in the Pacific as part of El Niño. In particular, the basinwide warming drives strong subsidence over Australia, prolonging the dry conditions during January–March, when El Niño–related SST starts to decay. In addition to the anomalous circulation in the tropics, the basinwide warming excites a pair of barotropic anomalies in the Indian Ocean extratropics that induces an anomalous anticyclone in the Great Australian Bight.

scholarly journals The atmospheric circulation associated with extreme rainfall events in Piura, Peru, during the 1997--1998 and 2002 El Niño events

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 3917-3926 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Practical Interest ◽  
Western Slope ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Low Level ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. The lowland of Piura, in northwestern Peru, is very strongly impacted by El Niño. Its climate is arid but can experience very heavy rainfall associated with the high nearby sea surface temperature (SST) during El Niño events. Rainfall, however, tends to occur in discrete, intense events and an understanding of the physical conditions favoring a particular day with heavy rainfall over others is of both scientific and practical interest. In this work, we consider the rainy periods of December 1997 to April 1998 and March to April 2002, corresponding to very strong and weak to moderate El Niño conditions, respectively, and search for systematic differences in the atmospheric circulation that may account for the day-to-day variability of rainfall in Piura. Composites of vertical profiles of winds measured by wind profiling radars in Piura, as well as composites of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind fields, suggest that rainy days are associated with an enhanced onshore westerly low-level flow, which may help the triggering of convection by orographic lifting over the western slope of the Andes. Synoptic control was evident in the rainfall record for 1997-1998 but was not as clear in that of 2002. However, in both periods of study the low-level flow over Piura, which we found to be important for the triggering of rainfall, was modulated by tropical synoptic scale disturbances. The structures of the composited wind differences suggest that they may be related to equatorially trapped tropospheric waves, particularly Kelvin and n=1 Rossby waves.

scholarly journals Understanding the ENSO–CO2 Link Using Stabilized Climate Simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (22) ◽  
pp. 7917-7936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Stevenson ◽  
Baylor Fox-Kemper ◽  
Markus Jochum
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The influence of atmospheric CO2 concentration on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored using 800-yr integrations of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3.5 (CCSM3.5), with CO2 stabilized at the a.d. 1850, 1990, and 2050 levels. Model mean state changes with increased CO2 include preferential SST warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a weakening of the equatorial trade winds, increased vertical ocean stratification, and a reduction in the atmospheric Hadley and oceanic subtropical overturning circulations. The annual cycle of SST strengthens with CO2, likely related to unstable air–sea interactions triggered by an increased Northern Hemisphere land–sea temperature contrast. The mean trade wind structure changes asymmetrically about the equator, with increased convergence in the Northern Hemisphere and divergence in the Southern Hemisphere leading to corresponding deepening and shoaling of the thermocline. The proportion of eastern versus central Pacific–type El Niño events increases with CO2, but the significance of the changes is relatively low; ENSO amplitude also increases with CO2, although the change is insignificant at periods longer than 4 yr. The 2–4-yr ENSO response shows an enhancement in equatorial Kelvin wave variability, suggesting that stochastic triggering of El Niño events may be favored with higher CO2. However, the seasonal cycle–ENSO interaction is also modified by the asymmetric climatological changes, and forcing by the Southern Hemisphere becomes more important with higher CO2. Finally, higher-resolution CCSM4 control simulations show that ENSO weakens with CO2 given a sufficiently long integration time. The cause for the difference in ENSO climate sensitivity is not immediately obvious but may potentially be related to changes in westerly wind bursts or other sources of high-frequency wind stress variability.

Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia

2004 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danielle C. Verdon ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem ◽  
Stewart W. Franks
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Forest Fire Risk ◽  
El Nino Events

This study investigates the influence that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) have on long term daily weather conditions pertinent to high forest fire danger in New South Wales, Australia. Using historical meteorological data for 22 weather stations to compute the daily value of McArthur’s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), it is shown that a strong relationship exists between climate variability, on a range of time scales, and forest fire risk. An investigation into the influence of ENSO on fire risk demonstrates that the proportion of days with a high, or greater than high, fire danger rating is markedly increased during El Niño episodes. More importantly, this study also shows that the already significantly enhanced fire danger associated with El Niño events was even further increased during El Niño events that occurred when the IPO was negative. The potential to use simple indices of climate variability to predict forest fire risk is therefore demonstrated to be significant.

scholarly journals Optimally growing initial errors of El Niño events in the CESM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Xu ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Initial Error ◽  
Initial Errors ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Type 3 ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractThe optimally growing initial errors (OGEs) of El Niño events are found in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. Based on the characteristics of low-dimensional attractors for ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) systems, we apply singular vector decomposition (SVD) to reduce the dimensions of optimization problems and calculate the CNOP in a truncated phase space by the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. In the CESM, we obtain three types of OGEs of El Niño events with different intensities and diversities and call them type-1, type-2 and type-3 initial errors. Among them, the type-1 initial error is characterized by negative SSTA errors in the equatorial Pacific accompanied by a negative west–east slope of subsurface temperature from the subsurface to the surface in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The type-2 initial error is similar to the type-1 initial error but with the opposite sign. The type-3 initial error behaves as a basin-wide dipolar pattern of tropical sea temperature errors from the sea surface to the subsurface, with positive errors in the upper layers of the equatorial eastern Pacific and negative errors in the lower layers of the equatorial western Pacific. For the type-1 (type-2) initial error, the negative (positive) temperature errors in the eastern equatorial Pacific develop locally into a mature La Niña (El Niño)-like mode. For the type-3 initial error, the negative errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific propagate eastward with Kelvin waves and are intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although the type-1 and type-3 initial errors have different spatial patterns and dynamic growing mechanisms, both cause El Niño events to be underpredicted as neutral states or La Niña events. However, the type-2 initial error makes a moderate El Niño event to be predicted as an extremely strong event.

scholarly journals Studies of the seasonal prediction of heavy late spring rainfall over southeastern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouwen Zhang ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Hua Jiang ◽  
Wentao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
River Region ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractThe late spring rainfall may account for 15% of the annual total rainfall, which is crucial to early planting in southeastern China. A better understanding of the precipitation variations in the late spring and its predictability not only greatly increase our knowledge of related mechanisms, but it also benefits society and the economy. Four models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) were selected to study their abilities to forecast the late spring rainfall over southeastern China and the major sources of heavy rainfall from the perspective of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. We found that the models have better abilities to forecast the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region (MLYZR) with only a 1-month lead time, but they failed for a 3-month lead time since the occurrence of the heavy rainfall was inconsistent with the observations. The observations indicate that the warm SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean are vital to the simultaneously heavy rainfall in the MLYZR in May, but an El Niño event is not a necessary condition for determining the heavy rainfall over the MLYZR. The heavy rainfall over the MLYZR in May is always accompanied by warming of the northeastern Indian Ocean and of the northeastern South China Sea (NSCS) from April to May in the models and observations, respectively. In the models, El Niño events may promote the warming processes over the northeastern Indian Ocean, which leads to heavy rainfall in the MLYZR. However, in the real world, El Niño events are not the main reason for the warming of the NSCS, and further research on the causes of this warming is still needed.

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