The trough-system algorithm and its application to spatial modeling of Greenland subglacial topography

AbstractDynamic ice-sheet models are used to assess the contribution of mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise. Mass transfer from ice sheet to ocean is in a large part through outlet glaciers. Bed topography plays an important role in ice dynamics, since the acceleration from the slow-moving inland ice to an ice stream is in many cases caused by the existence of a subglacial trough or trough system. Problems are that most subglacial troughs are features of a scale not resolved in most ice-sheet models and that radar measurements of subglacial topography do not always reach the bottoms of narrow troughs. The trough-system algorithm introduced here employs mathematical morphology and algebraic topology to correctly represent subscale features in a topographic generalization, so the effects of troughs on ice flow are retained in ice-dynamic models. The algorithm is applied to derive a spatial elevation model of Greenland subglacial topography, integrating recently collected radar measurements (CReSIS data) of the Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glacier regions. The resultant JakHelKanPet digital elevation model has been applied in dynamic ice-sheet modeling and sea-level-rise assessment.

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On the influence of Greenland outlet glacier bed topography on results from dynamic ice-sheet models

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2012aog60a061 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 53 (60) ◽

pp. 281-293 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Ute C. Herzfeld ◽

James Fastook ◽

Ralf Greve ◽

Brian McDonald ◽

Bruce F. Wallin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Velocity ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Outlet Glacier ◽

Digital Elevation ◽

Ice Sheet Modeling ◽

Subglacial Topography

AbstractPrediction of future changes in dynamics of the Earth’s ice sheets, mass loss and resultant contribution to sea-level rise are the main objectives of ice-sheet modeling. Mass transfer from ice sheet to ocean is, in large part, through outlet glaciers. Subglacial topography plays an important role in ice dynamics; however, trough systems have not been included in bed digital elevation models (DEMS) used in modeling, because their size is close to the model resolution. Using recently collected CReSIS MCoRDs data of subglacial topography and an algorithm that allows topographically and morphologically correct integration of troughs and trough systems at any modeling scale (5 km resolution for SeaRISE), an improved Greenland bed DEM was developed that includes Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glaciers (JakHelKanPet DEM). Contrasting the different responses of two Greenland ice-sheet models (UMISM and SICOPOLIS) to the more accurately represented bed shows significant differences in modeled surface velocity, basal water production and ice thickness. Consequently, modeled ice volumes for the Greenland ice sheet are significantly smaller using the JakHelKanPet DEM, and volume losses larger. More generally, the study demonstrates the role of spatial modeling of data specifically as input for dynamic ice-sheet models in assessments of future sea-level rise.

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Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 1039-1062 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

J. J. Fürst ◽

H. Goelzer ◽

P. Huybrechts

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Flow Model ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Water Runoff ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Over Time ◽

Loss Rates

Abstract. Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010), both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice–ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change projections, not from ice dynamics.

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Greenland ice sheet hydrology

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133313507075 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 38 (1) ◽

pp. 19-54 ◽

Cited By ~ 85

Author(s):

Vena W. Chu

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Field Studies ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Surface Water Hydrology ◽

Basal Sliding ◽

Hydrologic System ◽

Global Sea Level

Understanding Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) hydrology is essential for evaluating response of ice dynamics to a warming climate and future contributions to global sea level rise. Recently observed increases in temperature and melt extent over the GrIS have prompted numerous remote sensing, modeling, and field studies gauging the response of the ice sheet and outlet glaciers to increasing meltwater input, providing a quickly growing body of literature describing seasonal and annual development of the GrIS hydrologic system. This system is characterized by supraglacial streams and lakes that drain through moulins, providing an influx of meltwater into englacial and subglacial environments that increases basal sliding speeds of outlet glaciers in the short term. However, englacial and subglacial drainage systems may adjust to efficiently drain increased meltwater without significant changes to ice dynamics over seasonal and annual scales. Both proglacial rivers originating from land-terminating glaciers and subglacial conduits under marine-terminating glaciers represent direct meltwater outputs in the form of fjord sediment plumes, visible in remotely sensed imagery. This review provides the current state of knowledge on GrIS surface water hydrology, following ice sheet surface meltwater production and transport via supra-, en-, sub-, and proglacial processes to final meltwater export to the ocean. With continued efforts targeting both process-level and systems analysis of the hydrologic system, the larger picture of how future changes in Greenland hydrology will affect ice sheet glacier dynamics and ultimately global sea level rise can be advanced.

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Surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet from enhanced resolution passive microwave brightness temperatures (1979–2019)

10.5194/tc-2020-250 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Paolo Colosio ◽

Marco Tedesco ◽

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Roberto Ranzi

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Melting ◽

Passive Microwave ◽

High Temporal Resolution ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Enhanced Resolution

Abstract. Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance, affecting sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation on ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting in view of their long temporal coverage (1979–to date) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, being historically of the order of tens of kilometres. Here, we use a newly released passive microwave dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through the NASA MeASUREs program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the GrIS at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 Km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms through data collected by Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and the outputs of the MAR regional climate model. We found that surface melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of MEMLS model, capable to detect sporadic and persistent melting. Our results indicate that, during the reference period 1979–2019 (1988–2019), surface melting over the GrIS increased in terms of both duration, up to ~4.5 (2.9) days per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the GrIS surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season has started up to ~4 (2.5) days earlier and ended ~7 (3.9) days later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs through a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local scale processes, hence confirming the potential interest of this new enhanced product for studying surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and monitor its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modelled melt extent at high resolution and potentially to assimilate this data in climate models.

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Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-13-373-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 373-395 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Sébastien Le clec'h ◽

Sylvie Charbit ◽

Aurélien Quiquet ◽

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Christophe Dumas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Surface Slopes ◽

Regional Atmospheric Model ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Coupling Strategies

Abstract. In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere–GrIS interactions, such as the temperature–elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may alter both the climate and the ice dynamics governing the ice sheet evolution. However, changes in ice sheet geometry are generally not explicitly accounted for when simulating atmospheric changes over the Greenland ice sheet in the future. To account for ice sheet–climate interactions, we developed the first two-way synchronously coupled model between a regional atmospheric model (MAR) and a 3-D ice sheet model (GRISLI). Using this novel model, we simulate the ice sheet evolution from 2000 to 2150 under a prolonged representative concentration pathway scenario, RCP8.5. Changes in surface elevation and ice sheet extent simulated by GRISLI have a direct impact on the climate simulated by MAR. They are fed to MAR from 2020 onwards, i.e. when changes in SMB produce significant topography changes in GRISLI. We further assess the importance of the atmosphere–ice sheet feedbacks through the comparison of the two-way coupled experiment with two other simulations based on simpler coupling strategies: (i) a one-way coupling with no consideration of any change in ice sheet geometry; (ii) an alternative one-way coupling in which the elevation change feedbacks are parameterized in the ice sheet model (from 2020 onwards) without taking into account the changes in ice sheet topography in the atmospheric model. The two-way coupled experiment simulates an important increase in surface melt below 2000 m of elevation, resulting in an important SMB reduction in 2150 and a shift of the equilibrium line towards elevations as high as 2500 m, despite a slight increase in SMB over the central plateau due to enhanced snowfall. In relation with these SMB changes, modifications of ice sheet geometry favour ice flux convergence towards the margins, with an increase in ice velocities in the GrIS interior due to increased surface slopes and a decrease in ice velocities at the margins due to decreasing ice thickness. This convergence counteracts the SMB signal in these areas. In the two-way coupling, the SMB is also influenced by changes in fine-scale atmospheric dynamical processes, such as the increase in katabatic winds from central to marginal regions induced by increased surface slopes. Altogether, the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise, inferred from variations in ice volume above floatation, is equal to 20.4 cm in 2150. The comparison between the coupled and the two uncoupled experiments suggests that the effect of the different feedbacks is amplified over time with the most important feedbacks being the SMB–elevation feedbacks. As a result, the experiment with parameterized SMB–elevation feedback provides a sea-level contribution from GrIS in 2150 only 2.5 % lower than the two-way coupled experiment, while the experiment with no feedback is 9.3 % lower. The change in the ablation area in the two-way coupled experiment is much larger than those provided by the two simplest methods, with an underestimation of 11.7 % (14 %) with parameterized feedbacks (no feedback). In addition, we quantify that computing the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise from SMB changes only over a fixed ice sheet mask leads to an overestimation of ice loss of at least 6 % compared to the use of a time variable ice sheet mask. Finally, our results suggest that ice-loss estimations diverge when using the different coupling strategies, with differences from the two-way method becoming significant at the end of the 21st century. In particular, even if averaged over the whole GrIS the climatic and ice sheet fields are relatively similar; at the local and regional scale there are important differences, highlighting the importance of correctly representing the interactions when interested in basin scale changes.

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Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20660 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Shepherd ◽

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Global Sea Level

In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today&#8217;s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. Since the early 1990&#8217;s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance. &#160;Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC&#8217;s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.

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Recent retreat of Greenland's marine terminating glaciers has a lasting impact on velocity and mass loss during the 21st Century

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9908 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Isabel Nias ◽

Sophie Nowicki ◽

Denis Felikson

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Initial State ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Total Contribution ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Glacier Terminus

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) can be partitioned between surface mass balance (SMB) and discharge due to ice dynamics through its marine-terminating outlet glaciers. A perturbation to a glacier terminus (e.g. a calving event) results in an instantaneous response in velocity and mass loss, but also a diffusive response due to the evolution of ice thickness over time. This diffusive response means the total impact of a retreat event can take decades to be fully realised. Here we model the committed response of the GrIS to recent observed changes in terminus position, neglecting any future climate perturbations. Our simulations quantify the sea level contribution that is locked in due to the slow dynamic response of the ice. Using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), we run forward simulations starting from an initial state representative of the 2007 ice sheet. We apply perturbations to the marine-terminating glacier termini that represent recent observed changes, and simulate the response over the 21st Century, holding the climate forcing constant. The sensitivity of the ice sheet response to model parameter uncertainty is explored with in an ensemble framework, and GRACE data is used to constrain the results. We find that terminus retreat observed between 2007 and 2015 results in approximately 6 mm of sea level rise by 2100, with retreat having a lasting impact on velocity and mass loss. Our results complement the ISMIP6 projections, which report the ice sheet response to future forcing, excluding the background committed response. In this way, we can obtain estimates of Greenland&#8217;s total contribution to sea level rise by 2100.

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Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli3482.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 18 (17) ◽

pp. 3409-3427 ◽

Cited By ~ 173

Author(s):

J. K. Ridley ◽

P. Huybrechts ◽

J. M. Gregory ◽

J. A. Lowe

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Ice Dynamics

Abstract Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr−1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

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Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-3851-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 3851-3905 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

J. J. Fürst ◽

H. Goelzer ◽

P. Huybrechts

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Flow Model ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Melting ◽

Strong Impact ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Ice Flow ◽

Over Time

Abstract. Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade, both increased surface melting and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 to global sea-level rise, roughly in shares of respectively 60 and 40 per cent. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, initialised to the present state, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the ice flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of ten Atmosphere and Ocean General Circulation Models and four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm by the year 2100. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to either abate when the warming already peaks in this century, allowing to preserve the ice sheet in a geometry close to the present-day state, or to remain at a constant level over three hundred years under moderate warming. The volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin reducing the ice–ocean contact area. The effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is found to be negligible on centennial time scales. The presented projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. The results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change projections, and not from ice dynamics.

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A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 1799-1807 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Anders Levermann ◽

Ricarda Winkelmann

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

The Self ◽

Simple Equation ◽

Coastal Protection ◽

Temperature Threshold ◽

Ice Dynamics

Abstract. In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slowdown near the threshold: the median time to lose 10 % of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 °C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 °C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions.

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