Is the effect of Indian energy price shocks asymmetric on the stock market at the firm level? A panel SVAR approach

Author(s):  
Bhagavatula Aruna ◽  
Rajesh H. Acharya

This paper examines, using monthly data from 1995 to 2016, whether the oil, coal and electric-ity price shocks have an asymmetric influence on stock returns and inflation. The paper has employed Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) model with various measures of the oil, coal and electricity price shocks on a dataset containing 1168 firms. Results from Pan-el-SVAR reveal that all oil, coal and electricity price specifications have an asymmetric impact on stock returns. Further, impulse response function reveals that the various dimensions of oil, coal and electricity price shocks lead to volatility in the response variables. It can also be ob-served that negative coal and electricity price shock has a radical impact on stock returns. Overall, the study on asymmetric impact of net oil and coal price increase, deserves attention from the investors and policy makers.

Author(s):  
Ondřej Dvouletý

Investigation of the relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship still does not provide conclusive results and scholars argue that the relationship needs to be further investigated. In the Czech context, the knowledge about entrepreneurship is still underdeveloped. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of the relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship, applying the methodology used by Koellinger and Thurik (2012) with usage of the quarterly data for the Czech NUTS 3 regions for the period of years 2003 – 2014. Collected sample of 672 region‑quarter observations was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. Estimated panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models with impulse response function supported hypothesis assuming a positive relationship between unemployment and entrepreneurship, operationalized as annual growth in registered business activity. Obtained results also showed that after the shock in unemployment, dynamics of entrepreneurship increased above its initial level after two years, concluding that it may take up to two years before positive effects on entrepreneurship reveal. This finding provides value for entrepreneurship policy makers. Based on the obtained results author suggests to support entrepreneurial activity, especially during the times of higher unemployment rate.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
Agatha Canonia Kristyaningrum ◽  
Hersugondo Hersugondo

This study aims to examine the effect of the WTI type oil price shock and inflation on stock returns from the ASEAN-3 capital markets, namely Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines. The data used are monthly data from 2015 to 2019. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression. The results showed that oil price shocks had a significant positive effect on stock returns on the JASICA Mining index and the SET Resources index, but had no significant effect on the PSE Mining and Oil index. Furthermore, inflation had a significant positive effect on stock returns of Indonesia seen from the JASICA Mining index. Whereas, inflation had no significant effect on the SET Resources index of Thailand and the PSE Mining and Oil stock index of Philippines. Keywords: Oil price shock, Inflation, Stock return  


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-302
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saqib Bashir Butt ◽  
Hasniza Mohd Taib

Stock market volatility is always been a major concern for investors, regulators, policy makers and academicians. Unfortunately, firm level volatility has not been given the due attention. The studies dealing with the firm level volatility are scarce. Moreover, a common assumption of homogenous nature of firms is used in the aggregate stock market analysis, sectoral level analysis and even in a firm level analysis. This homogenous assumption was objected by several researchers and suggested that firms are heterogeneous even in a narrowly defined sector. Furthermore, firms are different from each other because of possessing different characteristics. Based on that firm’s response to macroeconomic changes would not be the same. Hence, the hypothesis testing ignoring this fact could be spurious. This study proposes five categories in which firms can be classified, such as firm age, firm size, firm nature of business, firm trading nature and the sectoral location of the firm. This study proposes to examine the linkages between the macro economic factors and the firm level stock returns volatility considering the given firm features. It is expected from the empirical testing that the macroeconomic factors effect firm stock returns volatility belonging to different firm features differently, both in terms of magnitude and sign.


2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-276
Author(s):  
Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale ◽  
Kgomotso Monkwe

The key to a brighter future for South Africa is a sustained growth which requires an on-going improvement in the supply side of the economy. The purpose of this paper is to identify the set of variables that may potentially act as determinants of growth in the South African economy with the application of the cointegrated vector autoregressive approach. Impulse Response Function is also used to explain the response to shock amongst the variables. The results indicate that the underlying variables of our model; real GDP, export, import and infrastructure investment are cointegrated. The estimates indicate that all the variables influence growth, albeit positive or negative effects. These results provide some indication to the policy makers on which variables to focus on in order to stimulate economic growth in South Africa. The study will contribute to a body of knowledge about the growth suggestions and recommendations that can redesign the growth promotion programs


2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardjo Koerniadi ◽  
Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti ◽  
Alireza Tourani-Rad

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of firm-level corporate governance practices on the riskiness of a firm's stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The authors constructed an index of governance quality incorporating best practices stipulated by regulators. The authors employed regression analysis. Findings – The empirical evidence, using an index of corporate governance, shows that well-governed New Zealand firms experience lower levels of risk, ceteris paribus. In particular, the results indicate that corporate governance aspects such as board composition, shareholder rights, and disclosure practices are associated with lower levels of risk. Research limitations/implications – A limitation of the study is that the corporate governance index constructed is somewhat arbitrary and due to limitation of data availability the authors may have excluded some factors such as share trading policy of directors and policies regarding provision of non-auditing services by auditors. The research supports the view that institutional context could have an impact on governance outcomes. The work has three implications for managers, investors, and policy makers. First, the results imply that well-governed firms have lower idiosyncratic risk and that this reduction is most likely due to the reduction in agency costs and information risk. Second, in the absence of features like an active corporate control market and stock option based managerial compensation, managers have little incentives to take on risky projects that increase firm value. Third, the results suggest that the managers of well-governed firms are not more risk averse with respect to investment decisions compared to poorly governed firms. Practical implications – The work has practical implications for managers, investors, and policy makers. Well-governed firms face lower variability in stock returns compared to poorly governed firms. Firms that have independent boards that protect its shareholders’ rights and disclose its governance-related policies experience lower firm-level risk, other things being equal. Originality/value – This study is the first one to examine the impact of a composite measure of corporate governance quality on stock return variability in a non-US setting. The results suggest that firms can use specific corporate governance provisions to mitigate firm-level risk. The findings of the paper are therefore relevant and useful to corporate managers, investors, and policy makers.


2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (No. 11) ◽  
pp. 517-525
Author(s):  
Ayhan KAPUSUZOGLU ◽  
Xi LIANG ◽  
Nildag Basak CEYLAN

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of food prices on the macroeconomic variables of Turkey. The effects are investigated using monthly data for the period January 1980–January 2016. A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is employed for the analysis. Impulse response functions are obtained to assess the impact of food price shocks on the macroeconomic variables of Turkey. To this end, SVAR model is employed as suggested by Cushman and Zha (1997). The impulse responses gathered suggest that the food price causes Turkish Lira (TRY) to appreciate and inflation to increase contemporaneously. This study provides an important contribution to the literature in terms of determining the factors and presenting the measures to be taken against these factors for Turkey which is a developing country and sensitive to macroeconomic factors.


2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keiichi Kubota ◽  
Hitoshi Takehara

This study investigates the time-series properties of accounting earnings and their components. We propose a new measure of earnings persistency in accordance with the vector autoregressive (VAR) model–linked earnings and stock returns. As a preliminary analysis, we estimate the first-order autocorrelations and test the stationarity of five variables: earnings, cash flows from operations, total accruals, current accruals, and noncurrent accruals. We then confirm that earnings and noncurrent accruals have a more persistent time-series than cash flows and current accruals. Next, we formulate and estimate the first-order autoregressive model composed of the three variables of utmost interest to accounting researchers, namely, cash flows, current accruals, and noncurrent accruals, and explore how future predictions of these three earnings components are affected by unit impulse shocks. Given the results of the impulse response function analysis, we forecast changes in stock prices based on future innovations of these components, finding that a 1% unit shock in the earnings components affects stock prices by 2% to 2.5%. Finally, we are able to demonstrate excess returns by using the portfolio formation method based on our measure of persistence.


2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Stephanos Papadamou ◽  
Alexandros Koulis ◽  
Constantinos Kyriakopoulos ◽  
Athanasios P. Fassas

This paper studies one of the most popular investment themes over recent years, investing in the cannabis industry. In particular, it investigates relationships between investor attention, as proxied by Google Trends, and stock market activities, i.e., return, volatility, and liquidity. To this end, in the empirical analysis we study how liquidity and investors’ attention affect the return dynamics of an investment in cannabis stocks by augmenting the three-factor Fama–French model. In addition, we use a vector autoregressive approach and the impulse response function to measure shock transmission between the variables under consideration. Our empirical findings show that there is a statistically positive relationship between cannabis stock returns and liquidity. We also find that increased investors’ attention results in higher returns.


2017 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Bartov ◽  
Lucile Faurel ◽  
Partha S. Mohanram

ABSTRACT Prior research has examined how companies exploit Twitter in communicating with investors, and whether Twitter activity predicts the stock market as a whole. We test whether opinions of individuals tweeted just prior to a firm's earnings announcement predict its earnings and announcement returns. Using a broad sample from 2009 to 2012, we find that the aggregate opinion from individual tweets successfully predicts a firm's forthcoming quarterly earnings and announcement returns. These results hold for tweets that convey original information, as well as tweets that disseminate existing information, and are stronger for tweets providing information directly related to firm fundamentals and stock trading. Importantly, our results hold even after controlling for concurrent information or opinion from traditional media sources, and are stronger for firms in weaker information environments. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the aggregate opinion from individual tweets when assessing a stock's future prospects and value.


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