Measuring the Persistency of Earnings Components: Applications of the VAR Model to Long-Run Japanese Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keiichi Kubota ◽  
Hitoshi Takehara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
First Order ◽  
Earnings Components

This study investigates the time-series properties of accounting earnings and their components. We propose a new measure of earnings persistency in accordance with the vector autoregressive (VAR) model–linked earnings and stock returns. As a preliminary analysis, we estimate the first-order autocorrelations and test the stationarity of five variables: earnings, cash flows from operations, total accruals, current accruals, and noncurrent accruals. We then confirm that earnings and noncurrent accruals have a more persistent time-series than cash flows and current accruals. Next, we formulate and estimate the first-order autoregressive model composed of the three variables of utmost interest to accounting researchers, namely, cash flows, current accruals, and noncurrent accruals, and explore how future predictions of these three earnings components are affected by unit impulse shocks. Given the results of the impulse response function analysis, we forecast changes in stock prices based on future innovations of these components, finding that a 1% unit shock in the earnings components affects stock prices by 2% to 2.5%. Finally, we are able to demonstrate excess returns by using the portfolio formation method based on our measure of persistence.

Do Financially Constrained Firms Earn Higher Returns than the Unconstrained Firms? A Comprehensive Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Total Asset ◽  
Cash Holding ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between financial constraints and the stock returns explaining the pricing of stock through financially constrained and unconstrained firms in Pakistan. Three proxies; total assets, tangible to total assets and cash holding to total assets ratios) have been used for financial constraints and the study tried to investigate that either the investors are compensated for taking the extra risk or not in Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). We find that the financially constrained firms don’t earn higher returns when their capital structure is heavy with liquid assets and their cash flows are more than the unconstrained firms in PSX. Moreover, the time series results showed that the risk-adjusted returns of the most constrained firms give the mix and somewhat negative and significant and insignificant results for the Pakistani firms listed in PSX sorted based on tangible to total assets and Cash holding to total asset ratios. Keywords: Asset Pricing, Financial constraints, risk-adjusted performance of portfolios

MODELING THE INTERACTIONS OF STOCK PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN MALAYSIA

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (04) ◽  
pp. 605-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL ◽  
ZAIDI BIN ISA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stock Price Index

After the East Asian crisis in 1997, the issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not have received much attention. This is due to realization that during the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both their currencies and stock markets. This paper studies the non-linear interactions between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia using a two regimes multivariate Markov switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model with regime shifts in both the mean and the variance. In the study, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the exchange rates of Malaysia ringgit against four other countries namely the Singapore dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Australian dollar between 1990 and 2005 are used. The empirical results show that all the series are not cointegrated but the MS-VAR model with two regimes manage to detect common regime shifts behavior in all the series. The estimated MS-VAR model reveals that as the stock price index falls the exchange rates depreciate and when the stock price index gains the exchange rates appreciate. In addition, the MS-VAR model fitted the data better than the linear vector autoregressive model (VAR).

Revisiting the (Mis)Pricing of Accruals

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-156
Author(s):  
Bradley Lail ◽  
Robert C. Lipe ◽  
Han S. Yi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Reliability Measures ◽  
Accrual Anomaly ◽  
Earnings Components ◽  
Jel Classifications

Our paper examines inconsistent conclusions regarding the accrual anomaly and demonstrates the importance of aligning regression specifications with hypotheses. Richardson, Sloan, Soliman, and Tuna (2005) conclude that accruals are mispriced and the mispricing seems to increase as accrual reliability decreases. Barone and Magilke (2009) and Ball, Gerakos, Linnainmaa, and Nikolaev (2016) conclude that cash flows rather than accruals are mispriced. We show that the divergent conclusions come from misalignment between the null hypothesis and regression specification in Richardson et al. (2005) . In addition, analysis of the contemporaneous relations between stock returns and components of earnings supports an initial underreaction to cash flows by investors. We fail to detect links between the reliability measures in Richardson et al. (2005) and investor behavior once we align the statistical tests with the null hypothesis. Our reexamination of prior findings benefits accounting academics, standard setters, and others interested in how investors use earnings components. JEL Classifications: M41. Data Availability: All data used in this study are publicly available from the sources identified in the text.

scholarly journals A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste ◽  
Kanyane Matlou
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to study the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time-varying fashion. Design/methodology/approach – Using South African data since 1966, the authors are able to study the dynamic shocks of both fiscal policy and asset prices on asset prices and fiscal policy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. This enables the authors to isolate specific periods in time to understand the size and sign of the shocks. Findings – The results seem to suggest that at least two regimes exist in which expansionary fiscal policy affected asset prices. From the 1970s until 1990, fiscal expansions were associated with declining house and slightly increased stock prices. The majority of the first decade of 2000 had asset prices increasing when fiscal policy expanded. On the other hand, increasing asset prices reduced deficits for the majority of the sample period, while the recent financial crises had a marked change on the way asset prices affect fiscal policy. Originality/value – This is the first attempt in the literature of fiscal policy and asset prices to use a TVP-VAR model to not only analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices, but also the feedback from asset prices to fiscal policy over time.

scholarly journals Overconfidence Bias: Empirical Examination of Trading Turnover and Market Returns

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (II) ◽  
pp. 384-390
Author(s):  
Syeda Faiza Urooj ◽  
Nosheen Zafar ◽  
Muzammil Illyas Sindhu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Trading Pattern ◽  
Overconfidence Bias

Theory of overconfidence states that investors are highly overconfident when valuing the stocks. Self-attribution has been found by the researchers as the root cause for overconfidence bias in investors. Investors attribute the high stock prices and returns with their own art of picking up the stocks, and thus they trade more frequently. In order to test overconfidence and self-attribution Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model has been employed to find out the long-term relationship between endogenous variables: market return and market turnover and exogenous variables: volatility and dispersion. Results revealed that there exists a strong positive relationship between market returns and trading turnover. Also, the crosssectional standard deviation in market prices i-e volatility and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns i-e dispersion has a very strong impact on trading pattern and returns. Since investment decisions made by Pakistani investor largely depend upon psychological factors, giving less weightage to all the fundamentals, the trading pattern exhibited may collectively tend the market behave in an irrational manner.

scholarly journals MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON STOCK PRICES

2021 ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Toufiq Agung Pratomo Sugito Putra ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Mathematical Techniques

Macroeconomics is an integral component of economic activity. The goal of this research is to demonstrate the effects of the macro-economic effect on stock returns with a more focused and tailored scope of the financial sector. This research uses a quantitative methodology with mathematical techniques, data used in the period 2001-2018, time series models with Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approaches where the data used are stationary and not co-integrated. The VAR model shows that if there is a parallel interaction between the measured variables, these variables can be considered similarly so that there are no more endogenous and exogenous variables. The findings showed that inflation, exchange rates and interest rates have no significant effect while economic growth had an impact on stock returns in the financial sector on the Indonesian stock exchange in 2001-2018

scholarly journals A Study On The Productivity Of Koreas Industrial Sector With IT Technology Capital And R&D Stocks Variation

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuhwan Park ◽  
Tae-Woong Park ◽  
Byoung-Moo Heo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Time Periods

This paper examines the effects of IT technology capital and R&D stocks variation on the growth of Koreas industries with time series approaches. In detail, we analyze the Granger causality and impulse response analysis among the Koreas industrial growth, IT technology capital, and R&D stocks. When it comes to this research conclusion, we know that IT technology capital and R&D stocks shocks affect the growth of Koreas industrial sector. However, the revere effect is ambiguous in each industrial sector. Also, the impulse response function analysis shows that the effect of IT technology capital and R&D stocks fluctuation in each industrial sector is presented with different time periods.

scholarly journals The effect of ambiguity on the UK stock market: evidence from a new empirical approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 133-147
Author(s):  
Run Qing Tan ◽  
Viktor Manahov ◽  
Jacco Thijssen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Bid Ask Spread ◽  
The Uk

This study developed a new ambiguity measure using the bid-ask spread. The results suggest that the degree of ambiguity has an impact on the daily UK stock market returns, but ambiguity does not cause changes in the returns. This implies that UK stock prices or returns cannot be predicted using variation in the degree of ambiguity through linear models, such as the VAR model, which was used in the study. The two sets of results in the study show that the degree of ambiguity from the previous two days might affect stock market returns. The authors observe that an increase in the degree of ambiguity two days ago is associated with a positive premium required by the investors. On the other hand, the degree of ambiguity tends to be affected by its past five-day values. Thus, the degree of ambiguity seems to persist for five days until investors update their priors. The intuition behind the result is that the degree of ambiguity can affect the returns of the UK stock market and UK stock market returns can in turn have an impact on the degree of ambiguity. The authors also observe that the degree of ambiguity does not seem to predict stock market returns in the UK when one applies linear models. However, this does not mean that there is no non-linear relationship between the degree of ambiguity and stock market returns or stock returns.

scholarly journals A Study of Intercept Adjusted Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model in Economic Time Series Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (8) ◽  
pp. 379-384
Author(s):  
Seuk Wai ◽  
Mohd Tahir Ismail . ◽  
Siok Kun Sek .
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Economic Time

Commodity price always related to the movement of stock market index. However real economic time series data always exhibit nonlinear properties such as structural change, jumps or break in the series through time. Therefore, linear time series models are no longer suitable and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive models which able to study the asymmetry and regime switching behavior of the data are used in the study. Intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSI-VAR) model is discuss and applied in the study to capture the smooth transition of the stock index changes from recession state to growth state. Results found that the dramatically changes from one state to another state are continuous smooth transition in both regimes. In addition, the 1-step prediction probability for the two regime Markov Switching model which act as the filtered probability to the actual probability of the variables is converged to the actual probability when undergo an intercept adjusted after a shift. This prove that MSI-VAR model is suitable to use in examine the changes of the economic model and able to provide significance, valid and reliable results. While oil price and gold price also proved that as a factor in affecting the stock exchange.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between of Cash Flows (Financing, Investment and Operating) and Stock Prices, Size of the Firms

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 424
Author(s):  
Tamer Bahjat Sabri ◽  
Khalid Mohammad Hasan Sweis ◽  
Issam Naim Mahammad Ayyash ◽  
Yasmeen Faheem Asaad Qalalwi ◽  
Israa Sami Abbas Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Nonparametric Test ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
The Other ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Relationship

This study sought to test the relationship between cash flows from operating activities, investment activities and financial activities and on one hand and stock returns and the volume of assets on the companies listed in Palestine Stock Exchange on the other hand. The study incorporated 24 companies in 2018 and the required data were obtained through the financial statements. To test the hypotheses of the study, the Mann-Whitny U Test was used, a nonparametric test. Also the Kolmogorov-Smirnov was done. The findings demonstrated that the value of the Whitny U Test was (-3.291) Z with a statistical significance at 1%. Based on this, the null hypothesis was rejected and the alternative one, stating that there is a statistically significant difference between the operating flows of companies with low assets and those companies with high assets, was accepted. However, the other null hypothesis was accepted. The study recommended that companies and investors should take into consideration cash flows when taking an investment decision in Palestine Stock Exchange.

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