scholarly journals STOCHASTIC MODEL OF RISK MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iryna Debela
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Markov Property ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Economic Risk

Economic activity of economic entities is associated with the constant search for effective management solutions: the optimal option for the allocation of resources, promising areas of development, the feasibility of introducing new technologies and developing new markets. Complications of internal and external relationships, the presence of a large number of unpredictable indicators limit the activities of an individual enterprise, do not allow to form an optimal strategy for the development of economic objects without the use of specific management methods and models. The basis for modeling management systems, including modeling of priority areas of agricultural sector, is to build a mathematical model. An adequate mathematical model must take into account the dynamics, stochastic uncertainty and unstructured management processes of economic objects, which is quite difficult to implement. In addition, the task of management and decision-making always contains a group of non-material, qualitative factors that are difficult to formalize, describe in quantitative terms, but which certainly have a decisive influence on the quality of the decision. Such "factors of influence" include the human factor. The result of human behavior can nullify any optimal solution, based on any adequate mathematical model. Accordingly, the mathematical model should also take into account the risk impact of the human factor, in the context of the entire management decision-making process. For management system models, there are a number of unresolved formalization and risk considerations. Mathematical formulation of the problem of optimizing economic risk management, as a rule, begins with the formalization of input parameters, qualitative and quantitative estimates of model variables, selection of mathematical tools. The information base of optimization models is the preliminary analytical and statistical indicators of the dynamics of the studied economic object. The article investigates the stochastic model of economic risk management. The set of implementations of random processes is considered as a limited set of random variables with a Markov property, which formalizes the problem of risk management, as a random process of obtaining the predicted benefit.

scholarly journals Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Dunn ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Current Response ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Response Decisions

Wildfire’s economic, ecological and social impacts are on the rise, fostering the realisation that business-as-usual fire management in the United States is not sustainable. Current response strategies may be inefficient and contributing to unnecessary responder exposure to hazardous conditions, but significant knowledge gaps constrain clear and comprehensive descriptions of how changes in response strategies and tactics may improve outcomes. As such, we convened a special session at an international wildfire conference to synthesise ongoing research focused on obtaining a better understanding of wildfire response decisions and actions. This special issue provides a collection of research that builds on those discussions. Four papers focus on strategic planning and decision making, three papers on use and effectiveness of suppression resources and two papers on allocation and movement of suppression resources. Here we summarise some of the key findings from these papers in the context of risk-informed decision making. This collection illustrates the value of a risk management framework for improving wildfire response safety and effectiveness, for enhancing fire management decision making and for ushering in a new fire management paradigm.

EFFICIENCY OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT BODIES

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetiana Sych ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Professional Training ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Nobel Laureate ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
State Management ◽  
Public Administration Reform

The article considers the factors influencing the efficiency of management decisions made by local government bodies in the modern conditions of public administration reform and the development of local self-government in Ukraine. The author outlines the features of this problem, the main features of state-management decisions, the essence of the concepts "effect", "efficiency of management decisions", the main approaches to the study of the problem of decision-making are highlighted. The main attention is paid to the direction of research, which takes into account the human factor. The main ideas of the representative of this direction - the Nobel laureate D. Kahneman, presented in the book "Noise", are considered. This work raises the issue of system errors among those who make decisions. The views of the domestic scientist O. Maltsev on the designated problem and the provisions of D. Kahneman's book are presented. The results of the analysis by scientists of the influence of the human factor and psychological characteristics of management decision-making on the efficiency of decisions are reflected. The conclusions of scientists regarding the need to take into account the qualities of a decision- making person and his professional training are summarized. The main characteristics of the personality that influence decision-making are given from the domestic scientific literature on public administration problems. In accordance with these ideas, the requirements for the positions of civil servants, local self-government bodies, as well as the modern practice of training specialists and managers in this field are considered. It is concluded that the primary importance for making effective decisions by local government bodies is the use by specialists and managers of modern technologies for developing and making management decisions, the development of their personal qualities for making management decisions in the process of training and obtaining specialized management education in universities.

scholarly journals Algorithm of optimal management for the efficient use of energy resources

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 02052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Krasnov ◽  
Sergey Sergeev ◽  
Elizaveta Zotova ◽  
Nadezhda Grashchenko
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Optimal Management ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Maximum Profit ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Business Entities

The paper presents the results of the developed algorithms aimed at optimizing management decision-making by the administration of megalopolises. A mathematical model is obtained within the concept of digital economy. The regulatory action of dispositive decisions is aimed at business entities whose activities are externalized while consuming energy resources. Since any resources are used unevenly throughout the year, the authors apply the methods of the theory of optimal decisions. The criterion is the functional reflection of the balance between the maximum profit, the comfort of living conditions, and the environmental conditions. The results obtained make it possible to take administrative decisions in an optimal way, which reduces the negative effects of externalities and results in the most efficient use of energy resources.

Framework for Identification and Collection of Data Useful for Risk Assessments of Microbial Foodborne or Waterborne Hazards: A Report from the International Life Sciences Institute Research Foundation Advisory Committee on Data Collection for Microbial Risk Assessment

2007 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 1744-1751 ◽  
Author(s):  
ISABEL WALLS
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Response Data ◽  
Management Decision Making

A microbial risk assessment (MRA) can provide the scientific basis for risk management decision making. Much data are needed to complete an MRA, including quantitative data for pathogens in foods. The purpose of this document was to provide information on data needs and data collection approaches for MRAs that will be useful for national governments, particularly in developing countries. A framework was developed, which included the following activities: (i) identify the purpose of data collection—this should include stating the specific question(s) to be addressed; (ii) identify and gather existing data—this should include a determination of whether the data are sufficient to answer questions to be addressed; (iii) develop and implement a data collection strategy; (iv) analyze data and draw conclusions; and (v) use data to answer questions identified at the start of the process. The key data needs identified for an MRA were as follows: (i) burden of foodborne or waterborne disease; (ii) microbial contamination of foods; and (iii) consumption patterns. In addition, dose-response data may be necessary, if existing dose-response data cannot be used to estimate dose response for the population of interest. Data should be collected with a view to its use in risk management decision making. Standard sampling and analysis methods should be used to ensure representative samples are tested, and care should be taken to avoid bias when selecting data sets. A number of barriers to data collection were identified, including a lack of clear understanding of the type of data needed to undertake an MRA, which is addressed in this document.

Real Options in flood risk management decision making

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Woodward ◽  
B. Gouldby ◽  
Z. Kapelan ◽  
S.-T. Khu ◽  
I. Townend
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Management Decision Making
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