Epidemic Response: Follow-up and lessons learned from the US response to the evolving and conflicting risk information, focusing on education and clinical environments

In this follow-up panel, we discuss what we have learned over the last year about responding to an epidemic or pandemic that has demonstrated a level of transmission unprecedented in the modern era. Two medical doctors that have worked on the front of this pandemic share their experiences transitioning from the “sharp end” of the response. Decisions about how to mitigate hazards have occurred at the personal, institutional, and health policy levels, in real-time, with frequent adaptation, and often in advance of concrete evidence. Over the course of the pandemic, hospital systems revised existing protocols to manage perceived risks in real time using emerging information from other centers. With the introduction of vaccines, there is a new type of risk perception. Is the vaccine perceived to be safe? Is there a disparity in perception among different population groups? That said, analyses are also complicated by emerging viral mutations with unclear implications. What factors increase or decrease public compliance with precautions? How are US education policymakers deciding about face-to-face classroom instruction? This panel includes a warnings expert, an expert on education policy, and two practicing physicians.

Genomic characterization of 99 viruses from the bunyavirus families Nairoviridae, Peribunyaviridae, and Phenuiviridae, including 35 previously unsequenced viruses

Bunyaviruses (Negarnaviricota: Bunyavirales) are a large and diverse group of viruses that include important human, veterinary, and plant pathogens. The rapid characterization of known and new emerging pathogens depends on the availability of comprehensive reference sequence databases that can be used to match unknowns, infer evolutionary and pathogenic potential, and make response decisions in an evidence-based manner. In this study, we determined the coding-complete genome sequences of 99 bunyaviruses in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Arbovirus Reference Collection, focusing on orthonairoviruses (family Nairoviridae), orthobunyaviruses (Peribunyaviridae), and phleboviruses (Phenuiviridae) that either completely or partially lacked genome sequences. These viruses had been collected over 66 years from 27 countries from vertebrates and arthropods representing 37 genera. Many of the viruses had been characterized serologically and through experimental infection of animals but were isolated in the pre-sequencing era. We took advantage of our unusually large sample size to systematically evaluate genomic characteristics of these viruses, including reassortment, and co-infection. We corroborated our findings using several independent molecular and virologic approaches, including Sanger sequencing of 197 genome segments, and plaque isolation of viruses from putative co-infected virus stocks. This study contributes to the described genetic diversity of bunyaviruses and will enhance the capacity to characterize emerging human pathogenic bunyaviruses.

Research on Rainfall Monitoring Based on E-Band Millimeter Wave Link in East China

Accurate rainfall observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are essential for national disaster prevention and mitigation as well as climate response decisions. This paper introduces a field experiment using an E-band millimeter-wave link to obtain rainfall rate information in Nanjing city, which is situated in the east of China. The link is 3 km long and operates at 71 and 81 GHz. We first distinguish between the wet and the dry periods, and then determine the classification threshold for calculating attenuation baseline in real time. We correct the influence of the wet antenna attenuation and finally calculate the rainfall rate through the power law relationship between the rainfall rate and the rain-induced attenuation. The experimental results show that the correlation between the rainfall rate retrieved from the 71 GHz link and the rainfall rate measured by the raindrop spectrometer is up to 0.9. The correlation at 81 GHz is up to 0.91. The mean relative errors are all below 5%. By comparing with the rainfall rate measured by the laser raindrop spectrometer set up at the experimental site, we verified the reliability and accuracy of monitoring rainfall using the E-band millimeter-wave link.

A SIMULATION FRAMEWORK FOR CONTROLLED CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES SUBJECT TO NATURAL DISASTERS

Natural disasters are inherently unpredictable and can cause major damage to critical infrastructures in cities and loss of life. In this study, a simulation and control framework was developed for evaluating response decisions for natural disaster scenarios with the objective of minimizing the casualties generated from within the simulation. The package was developed in MATLAB Simulink using the infrastructure interdependencies simulator (I2Sim) with a test system of six small residences, one large residence, two health centres, one large hospital, three water pumps of varying capacities and one energy production cell. The research focused on the development of heuristic controllers to evaluate the best possible outcome given the disaster scenario simulated to affect critical infrastructure. Response decisions were generated for 625 unique scenarios, this information once grouped, can be used to inform response policies after natural disasters.

Exploring methodological approaches to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation: reflections from using life history approaches

People in developing countries face multiple risks, and their response decisions sit at the complex and often opaque interface of climatic stressors, constrained resource access, and changing livelihoods, social structures, and personal aspirations. Many risk management studies use a well-established toolkit of methodologies—household surveys, focus group discussions, and semi-structured interviews. We argue that such methodological conservatism tends to neglect the dynamic and differentiated nature of livelihood decisions. Since different methodologies privilege different portrayals of risk and response, we highlight how plural methodological approaches can capture a broader range of perspectives and problematisations. In this paper, we draw on life history (LH) interviews across four countries (Kenya, Namibia, Ghana, and India) to offer one way of expanding current methodological approaches on vulnerability and adaptation. We argue that LHs offer four key ‘value additions’. First, LHs give insights into the multiple and interacting nature of drivers of response behaviour. Second, they highlight intra-household dynamics to demonstrate how people with differential power shape risk management decisions. Third, LHs support explorations of past decisions, present situations, and future aspirations, thus producing temporally nuanced enquiries. Fourth, they provide a powerful analytical lens to capture the interplay of motivations, aspirations, and values on livelihood choices and adaptation outcomes. By adding value in these four ways, LHs challenge assumptions about how and why people respond to multiple risks and offer a nuanced understanding of adaptation processes.