scholarly journals A FORMALIZED ALGORITHM FOR OPTIMIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN CONDITIONS OF STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iryna Debela
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Control Process ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Interval Estimate ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Stochastic Uncertainty ◽  
Functional Relationships ◽  
Decision Making Model

One of the main tasks of the decision support theory is the study of methods and tools for solving the problem of minimizing the negative consequences and risks in choosing strategic directions for the development of the studied system - the object of management. The formal algorithm of the optimization in conditions of the decision-making process stochastic uncertainty, and realization of steady states in system is investigated. The purpose of the algorithm model is to provide the predicted dynamics, compensation of structural, parametric uncertainty of the control system. The ambiguity of the choice the alternative solutions and as a consequence - the inadequacy of the mathematical model, due to the significant amount of stochastic and functional relationships, different ways of presenting input data, the impossibility formalizing the studied processes. Solutions in conditions of partial or complete uncertainty can be found by searching for elements of a set the alternatives, each of which with some probability may be the optimal solution. If statistical observations of the studied object or management process are incomplete, insufficiently formalized, or impossible at all, then the uncertainty of the decision to predict the directions of their possible development is clear. The decision-making process in conditions of uncertainty is proposed to be divided into stages: specification and formalization of the decision-making model; choice methods and algorithms for constructing alternatives taking into account the peculiarities of the chosen decision-making model. Parametric uncertainty is described as an interval estimate of possible values of the studied parameter. The interval can be strictly limited by numerical values, or with not clear limits - descriptive qualitative variables. Modeling of the control process in conditions of stochastic uncertainty is based on the definition of the object under study as a complex system. A promising area of research on this topic is a mathematical description of the value distribution function within the interval, which can be formalized on the basis of expert estimates, or as a heuristic probability distribution function of unpredictable events.

An Evacuation Decision Making Model for Firefighters in Ad Hoc Robot Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 756-759 ◽  
pp. 504-508
Author(s):  
De Min Li ◽  
Jian Zou ◽  
Kai Kai Yue ◽  
Hong Yun Guan ◽  
Jia Cun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Markov Decision Process ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Critical Problems ◽  
Fire Scene ◽  
Decision Making Model

Evacuation for a firefighter in complex fire scene is challenge problem. In this paper, we discuss a firefighters evacuation decision making model in ad hoc robot network on fire scene. Due to the dynamics on fire scene, we know that the sensed information in ad hoc robot network is also dynamically variance. So in this paper, we adapt dynamic decision method, Markov decision process, to model the firefighters decision making process for evacuation from fire scene. In firefighting decision making process, we know that the critical problems are how to define action space and evaluate the transition law in Markov decision process. In this paper, we discuss those problems according to the triangular sensors situation in ad hoc robot network and describe a decision making model for a firefighters evacuation the in the end.

scholarly journals A HYBRID MODEL FOR DECISION-MAKING IN THE INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 720-737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés CID-LÓPEZ ◽  
Miguel J. HORNOS ◽  
Ramón Alberto CARRASCO ◽  
Enrique HERRERA-VIEDMA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Computing With Words ◽  
Communications Technology ◽  
Qualitative Information ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
Decision Making Model

The majority of businesses in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector face decision-making problems on a daily basis. Most of these problems are based on contexts of uncertainty, where decisions are founded on qualitative information which may be imprecise or perception-based. In these cases, the information which is expressed by experts and users of evaluated services can be treated using processes of computing with words (CW). In this paper, we present a hybrid decision-making model especially designed for the ICT sector whereby the experts have the support of an intelligent system which provides information about the opinions of users related to those problems which are to be analysed. These opinions are obtained by using different mechanisms and techniques when users conduct business with the service provider. In addition, we employ a procedure for obtaining consensus between experts which enriches and strengthens the decision-making process.

Emergency Psychiatric Admission to the General Hospital a Formulation of the Process

1975 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 567-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Bartolucci ◽  
J.T. Goodman ◽  
D.L. Streiner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
General Hospital ◽  
Psychiatric Hospitalization ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Psychiatric Admission ◽  
Situational Context ◽  
Decision Making Model

The literature regarding the decision-making process leading to psychiatric hospitalization in a general hospital is reviewed. On the basis of the limited data available in the literature, a decision-making model is proposed, based on variables relating to the clinician, the patient and the situational context.

Study on Emergency Decision-Making of Natural Disaster Based on Collaboration of Multi-Agent

2013 ◽  
Vol 411-414 ◽  
pp. 2684-2693
Author(s):  
Yue E ◽  
Ye Ping Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Collaborative Decision Making ◽  
Agent Theory ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Based on the occurrence and evolution of the natural disaster is characteristic of uncertainty and complexity, in this article, Agent theory and technology is applied to emergency decision-making of natural disaster in China, built the disaster emergency collaborative decision-making framework based on multi-agent, design the collaborative decision-making model, discuss the emergency decision-making mechanism based on scenario-response, through effective collaboration based on multi-agent, achieve natural disaster dynamic emergency decision-making process.

scholarly journals WOKÓŁ INTUICYJNYCH DECYZJI SĘDZIEGO

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Radosław Zyzik
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Legal Theory ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Legal Decisions ◽  
Intuitive Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model

ON A JUDGE’S INTUITIVE DECISIONSSummaryThe paper discusses the credibility of legal decisions taken on the basis of intuition. An analysis is conducted from the perspective of cognitive psychology, with special emphasis on research on expertise intuition. The aim is to answer the question whether we can speak of trustworthy intuitive decision-making in the legal sciences. I confront research on legal theory conducted by American legal realists with cognitive psychology in order to establish the conditions influencing the decision-making process and the formulation of intuitive evaluations. The paper ends with a presentation of a decision-making model valid both for the legal sciences and for cognitive psychology.

scholarly journals Chinese international students travelling with friends: Group decision-making and disagreement prevention

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hanru Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
International Students ◽  
Shared Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Chinese International Students ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Shared Decision ◽  
Decision Making Model

<p>This thesis investigates the group decision-making process of Chinese international students travelling with friends in New Zealand. Focusing on groups of friends, a neglected decision-making unit, it explores models of group decision-making and disagreement prevention and resolution strategies of Chinese international students making travel-related decisions. Qualitative research method governed by the interpretive paradigm was adopted. Sixteen Chinese international students from Victoria University of Wellington were interviewed. They were from eleven travel groups and had experience of independent leisure travel in non-family groups in New Zealand. Given that Chinese independent visitor market to New Zealand keeps growing, and Chinese international students have been referred as “China's first wave of independent travellers” (King & Gardiner, 2015), this study adds knowledge to the understanding of the travel behaviours and decision-making process of this market travelling in New Zealand.  Tourism attractions were the most discussed travel-related decision during the group decision-making process, followed by decisions on travel activities, food and restaurants, accommodation and transportation. Three group decision-making models were identified: leadership, division of work, and shared decision-making. Leadership includes three roles of leaders, namely the travel initiator who has the initial idea for the trip and who gets potential members together, the main plan-provider who is responsible for collecting travel information and travel tips to make the whole travel plan and arrange travel schedules, and the main decision-maker who makes the final decision in the travel group. The former two roles are with less dominance, while the latter is with higher dominance in the decision-making process. The division of work model refers to dividing the tasks (e.g. organising accommodation or transport) within the travel group and includes two roles: the plan-provider who is responsible for making the plan for the allocated task, and the decision-maker who made the decision on the allocated task. In the shared decision-making model, the group members make the travel-related decisions collectively by discussion and voting.  Most travel groups were found to use multiple group decision-making models conjointly, with a few groups only using the shared decision-making model. Overall, the most used models were shared decision-making and leadership. Most travel group who adopted the leadership model tended to then use either shared decision-making model or the division of work model depending on the level of dominance of group leader.  Most interviewees indicated that there was lack of disagreement during the group decision-making process. Thus the research focus has shifted from the disagreement resolution to the disagreement prevention. Five disagreement prevention strategies and one influencing factor were identified: travelling with like-minded people, adequate preparation, empathy and mutual understanding, tolerance, compensation and external factors. If disagreements occurred, one or more of tight strategies were adopted by the interviewees to resolve them, namely making concessions, discussing and voting, looking for alternatives, persuasion, toleration, splitting up, accommodating and delaying. Implications and recommendation for industries and future studies are discussed.</p>

scholarly journals The decision making process of being palliative volunteer

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
Ni Putu Wulan Purnama Sari ◽  
Nia Novita Sari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Role Conflict ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Insufficient Information ◽  
Descriptive Model ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
Entry Points ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Voice Recorder

Palliative care delivery in Surabaya community, Indonesia, is in collaboration with palliative volunteers. The decision to be palliative volunteer was not easy, mainly because of financial matter, time limitation, and role conflict. This study aimed to analyze the decision making process of being a palliative volunteer in Surabaya. This qualitative study involved 13 female palliative volunteers under the supervision of Public Health Center (PHC) of Rangkah. In-depth-interview was used for data collection. Instruments used were interview guideline, observation sheet, and voice recorder. Collaizi method was used for data analysis. The majority was 40-50 years old, married, housewife, and high school graduated. Each participant manages 5-8 patients to be home-visited regularly. The driving force and the reason to persistently be a palliative volunteer was the willingness to help others in need. The major entry point acting as stimulus was health care professional in the Rangkah PHC. The decision making model applied was descriptive model, because despite of insufficient information through various entry points but the decision made was fast and persistent.

scholarly journals Effects of reward history on decision-making and movement vigor

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shruthi Sukumar ◽  
Reza Shadmehr ◽  
Alaa A Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Motor Control ◽  
Control Process ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Recent Theory ◽  
Consistent Effect ◽  
History Of ◽  
Series Of Experiments

During foraging, animals decide how long to stay and harvest reward, and then abandon that site and travel with a certain speed to the next reward opportunity. One aspect of this behavior involves decision-making, while the other involves motor-control. A recent theory posits that control of decision-making and movements may be linked via a desire to maximize a single normative utility: the sum of all rewards acquired, minus all efforts expended, divided by time. If this is the case, then the history of rewards, and not just its immediate availability, should dictate how long one decides to stay and harvest reward, and how slowly one travels to the next opportunity. We tested this theory in a series of experiments in which humans used their hand to harvest tokens at a reward patch, and then used their arm to reach toward a subsequent opportunity. Following a history of poor rewards, people not only foraged for a longer period, but also moved slower to the next reward site. Thus, reward history had a consistent effect on both the decision-making process regarding when to abandon a reward site, and the motor control process regarding how fast to move to the next opportunity.

scholarly journals The Model of Support for the Decision-Making Process, While Organizing Dredging Works in the Ports

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2706
Author(s):  
Adam Kaizer ◽  
Tomasz Neumann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Computer Program ◽  
Priority Queue ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Port Area ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Expert Study

The aim of the research was to create a decision-making model, which would be able to support planning, organizing and conducting the dredging works in the port area. The proposed solution is a multiple element system which enables to verify, in a comprehensive way, the majority of the aspects determining the quality and the time of dredging enterprise realization. The paper presents an original approach to the decision-making process during the organization of dredging works, using the computer program. In order to achieve the main goal of the study, the conditions of dredging works were considered. Furthermore, the factors that have an influence on the schedule of the project were evaluated and algorithms, as well as process organization schemes, were developed. If it is not enough, the decision models corresponding to the discussed issue were analysed and the computer program was created. And last but not the least, the proposed project and equipment were verified using a simulation model. While creating this model, the method of multiple criteria AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) decision support was used. Moreover, the mass service model with the priority queue regulations, the expert study, and statistical analysis of the traffic flow, were provided. The model was developed in reliance to multiple criteria studies, based on the opinions of multinational experts. These enabled to adjust each element of the system in accordance with various locations. As a result of the research, the following thesis has been proven, that detailed analysis of the conditions of dredging works and taking into account the received conclusions enables to reduce the costs and shorten the time of dredging projects realizations.

Can Web Seals Work Wonders for Small E-Vendors in the Online Trading Environment? A Theoretical Approach

2011 ◽  
pp. 239-258
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Hu ◽  
Yuhong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Price Effect ◽  
Online Shoppers ◽  
Online Trading ◽  
Decision Making Model

Trust is a major issue in e-markets. It is an even more prominent issue when online shoppers trade with small, less-established e-vendors. Empirical studies on Web seals show that small e-vendors could promote consumers’ trust and increase Web sales by displaying Web seals of approval. This article takes a theoretical approach to examine online trading when seals are used in e-markets. We establish an online shopper’s decision-making model to reveal the online shopper’s decision-making criteria. Criteria include when to trade with a well-established e-vendor and when to trade with a small, less-established e-vendor, with or without a Web seal. Based on our analysis of the research results, we reveal the price effect, the seal effect, the reputation effect, and their impact on a shopper’s decision-making process. Meanwhile, a social welfare analysis is conducted to further demonstrate the positive impact of Web seals on small, less-established e-vendors.

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