scholarly journals Trade creation and trade diversion effects from Croatia’s CEFTA and EU membership

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-521
Author(s):  
Hrvoje Jošić ◽  
Maja Bašić

This paper provides a detailed empirical study of trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from Croatia's two regional trade agreements, the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (the EU). It offers a foundation for discussion about future trade policies in terms of benefits and drawbacks from those regional trade agreements. Croatia’s imports, exports and total trade flows with 180 trading partner countries were examined for the period of 2000 – 2016. Cross-country panel regression using gravity model of international trade assessed pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, as well as more robust Tobit and PPML estimator models. The random effects model found positive effects of Croatia-CEFTA integration evident in trade creation in imports, exports and total trade flows. Croatia-EU integration exhibits no significant effect of trade creation in neither imports, exports nor total trade flows. Nonetheless, there is a trade diversion effect in cases of imports and total trade flows. In the Tobit model CEFTA created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, while the EU diverted trade in imports and total trade flows. Finally, the robust PPML estimator found that: (1) CEFTA membership created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, and (2) the EU membership diverted trade in imports and exports, and created trade in total trade flows.

Author(s):  
Nadiia KRYVENKO

The development of the USA, Canada and Mexico is studied taking into account the signing of the new USMCA Agreement, and some differences from the previous NAFTA are presented in accordance with modern challenges. The foreign trade of the association and its separate member states is analysed, their shares in the general trade are determined, and basic indicators of international trade are calculated. The main directions of trade flows and the importance of partner countries with regards to each other are identified. Exports are analysed taking into account the periods before and after the conclusion of the Agreement, while changes of intra-regional trade between the partner countries are investigated. Particular attention is paid to the study of foreign trade in agricultural products. Its share in total trade in goods is defined, the basic indicators are analysed, features concerning directions are determined. Trade trends taking into account North-South integration are considered, and the corresponding features are revealed. The importance of the agricultural sector in the new USMCA Agreement is presented as a result of the consideration of trade policy for agricultural products. It is proposed to take into account certain provisions of USMCA when concluding regional trade agreements of Ukraine in the future, as well as the possible impact on trade with Ukraine.


2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-253
Author(s):  
Billy Melo Araujo

AbstractThe EU and the US have long called for the linking of trade and labour standards in trade agreements at both the multilateral and bilateral level. This article examines their practice of including labour provisions in trade agreements, with a particular focus on recent attempts to include such provisions on so-called ‘mega-regionals’, which were presented by their proponents as providing the benchmark for labour protection in future trade agreements. It discusses the rationale behind the inclusion of such provisions and their practical limitations, and examines the extent to which mega-regionals address these limitations. It is argued that whilst the EU and the US have been keen advocates for trade-labour linkages, there has also been an unwillingness to convert this rhetoric into practice, raising questions about the extent of their commitment to these values.


2020 ◽  
pp. 218-224
Author(s):  
LELA JAMAGIDZE

The present paper discusses several new trends in the global trade such as digitalization of trade, regional trade agreements and the emergence of new global players. Based on theoretical research and the study of the available secondary statistical data it analyzes how trade policy can address these changes under the existing world trading system. Trade rules underlying the traditional trading system are still applicable under increasing digital trade and enhanced bilateral and regional trade integration. However, WTO Agreement has nothing to do with those barriers of trade that go beyond traditional trade measures and are very acute for the developing countries. They involve access to the Internet and other telecommunication infrastructure, weak formal institutions and legal protection, lack of awareness about the potential benefits and opportunities in digital trade and lack of IT literacy. In order to overcome these barriers developing countries should incorporate trade policy as a component of deep economic reforms. The pace of development of the multilateral trading rules is slower than required by increasingly flexible business models. Therefore, countries try to find solutions at the bilateral and plurilateral levels. For instance, the EU develops regulations under Digital Single Market as well as within its bilateral trade agreements with non-member states. Georgia is implementing digital economy regulations in accordance to its DCFTA with the EU. Access to information and communication technologies is essential to be engaged in digital trade. For developing countries investments in digital infrastructure is an important policy issue, while developed countries are more focused on balanced trade rules, which ensure the development of digital trade, on the one hand and security and data protection, on the other. Contemporary trade policy goes beyond regulation based on classical trade instruments. It encompasses regulation within regional trade and investment agreements, technical standards and other behind-the-border measures, regulation of services and intellectual property markets and support for sustainable development goals, etc. A large part of the contemporary regional trade agreements covers all these areas. Development of bilateral and regional cooperation by encouraging deep integration can be discussed as an effort to overcome inflexibilities of the multilateral system. Regional integration enables countries to develop selective approach towards their trade partners and maintain certain degree of autonomy by applying different trade rules towards different partners. Elimination of behind the border barriers and enhanced regulatory harmonization leads to reduced trade costs but it also leads to race to the bottom in regulatory facilitation, what might be detrimental to the national policy goals. The effects of deep economic integration cannot be assessed based on the traditional approach of trade creation and trade diversion, because integration as an institutional process affects not only trade flows but also economic and institutional development levels of the countries. Deep regional integration reduces institutional differences within regions and increases them across regions. Besides it, the increasing role of BRICs countries in international trade leads to greater diversity of actors in the world market. New global players ask for greater voice in the process of reforming trade rules. Therefore, global trade rules should reflect the diversity that comes from changes in the patterns as well as the main players of the world market


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document