Harmonization of Methodological Approaches and Real Time Radiological Consequence Forecasting Tools

Determination of urgent countermeasures to protect the public in early phase of the accident at NPP requires providing of radiological impact assessment at different distances in real time. These activities involve current meteorological forecast data and information about source term parameters as one of the main part of the emergency сenters functioning worldwide for prompt notification about the radiological or nuclear event in the country, as well as abroad in the case of transboundary impact. Experts’ background in the assessment and forecasting of radiological consequences area may vary from country to country in terms of methodological approaches, the use of atmospheric dispersion models, doses assessment models, databases, organization procedures, calculation process etc. Possible deviations in the results of assessments performed by experts from different countries may be caused by a number of factors. Their reasons can vary from the use of different information sources to the specifics of protective actions criteria in accordance with national requirements. These factors should be identified both in practice and scientifically. Radiological consequence assessment activities are harmonized at the international level. It is the target of a wide range of international projects. The paper provides information on modern scientific initiatives aimed at improving assessments and forecasts of radiological consequences to determine urgent countermeasures to protect the public at early phases of an accident at nuclear power plant, in particular, approaches to the initial data preparation and the conduct of assessments and forecasting. A review of international benchmarking activities as well as past emergency exercise overview is presented in the paper. Relevant problems of forecasting radiological consequences in real time are highlighted.