scholarly journals Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms in Conjugation of Westerly and Easterly on 31 March 2019 in Bangladesh

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 29-43
Author(s):  
Samarendra Karmakar ◽  
Mohan Kumar Das ◽  
Md Quamrul Hassam ◽  
Md Abdul Mannan
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Pbl Scheme ◽  
Single Moment

The diagnostic and prognostic studies of thunderstorms/squalls are very important to save live and loss of properties. The present study aims at diagnose the different tropospheric parameters, instability and synoptic conditions associated the severe thunderstorms with squalls, which occurred at different places in Bangladesh on 31 March 2019. For prognostic purposes, the severe thunderstorms occurred on 31 March 2019 have been numerically simulated. In this regard, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to predict different atmospheric conditions associated with the severe storms. The study domain is selected for 9 km horizontal resolution, which almost covers the south Asian region. Numerical experiments have been conducted with the combination of WRF single-moment 6 class (WSM6) microphysics scheme with Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme in simulation of the squall events. Model simulated results are compared with the available observations. The observed values of CAPE at Kolkata both at 0000 and 1200 UTC were 2680.4 and 3039.9 J kg-1 respectively on 31 March 2019 and are found to be comparable with the simulated values. The area averaged actual rainfall for 24 hrs is found is 22.4 mm, which complies with the simulated rainfall of 20-25 mm for 24 hrs. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 29-43

scholarly journals Mountain Waves Analysis in the Vicinity of the Madrid-Barajas Airport Using the WRF Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Javier Díaz-Fernández ◽  
Lara Quitián-Hernández ◽  
Pedro Bolgiani ◽  
Daniel Santos-Muñoz ◽  
Ángel García Gago ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Aircraft Icing ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Mountain Waves ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Pbl Scheme ◽  
Wind Velocities

Turbulence and aircraft icing associated with mountain waves are weather phenomena potentially affecting aviation safety. In this paper, these weather phenomena are analysed in the vicinity of the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport (Spain). Mountain waves are formed in this area due to the proximity of the Guadarrama mountain range. Twenty different weather research and forecasting (WRF) model configurations are evaluated in an initial analysis. This shows the incompetence of some experiments to capture the phenomenon. The two experiments showing the best results are used to simulate thirteen episodes with observed mountain waves. Simulated pseudosatellite images are validated using satellite observations, and an analysis is performed through several skill scores applied to brightness temperature. Few differences are found among the different skill scores. Nevertheless, the Thompson microphysics scheme combined with the Yonsei university PBL scheme shows the best results. The simulations produced by this scheme are used to evaluate the characteristic variables of the mountain wave episodes at windward and leeward and over the mountain. The results show that north-northwest wind directions, moderate wind velocities, and neutral or slightly stable conditions are the main features for the episodes evaluated. In addition, a case study is analysed to evidence the WRF ability to properly detect turbulence and icing associated with mountain waves, even when there is no visual evidence available.

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall Forecast with the WRF-ARW Model in the Central Andes of Peru

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldo Moya-Álvarez ◽  
José Gálvez ◽  
Andrea Holguín ◽  
René Estevan ◽  
Shailendra Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Vertical Movements ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Weather Research

The ability of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to forecast extreme rainfall in the Central Andes of Peru is evaluated in this study, using observations from stations located in the Mantaro basin and GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) images. The evaluation analyzes the synoptic conditions averaged over 40 extreme event cases, and considers model simulations organized in 4 nested domains. We first establish that atypical events in the region are those with more than 27 mm of rainfall per day when averaging over all the stations. More than 50% of the selected cases occurred during January, February, and April, with the most extreme occurring during February. The average synoptic conditions show negative geopotential anomalies and positive humidity anomalies in 700 and 500 hPa. At 200 hPa, the subtropical upper ridge or “Bolivian high” was present, with its northern divergent flank over the Mantaro basin. Simulation results show that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model underestimates rainfall totals in approximately 50–60% of cases, mainly in the south of the basin and in the extreme west along the mountain range. The analysis of two case studies shows that the underestimation by the model is probably due to three reasons: inability to generate convection in the upstream Amazon during early morning hours, apparently related to processes of larger scales; limitations on describing mesoscale processes that lead to vertical movements capable of producing extreme rainfall; and limitations on the microphysics scheme to generate heavy rainfall.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Microphysics single moment class-3 and class-6 in Precipitation Forecast

2018 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 03007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syeda Maria Zaidi ◽  
Jacqueline Isabella Anak Gisen
Keyword(s):  
Model Performance ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Minimum Medium ◽  
Weather Research

In this study, the performance of two different Microphysics Scheme options in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were evaluated for the estimating the precipitation forecast. The schemes WRF single moment class-3 (WSM-3) and single moment class-6 (WSM-6) were employed to produce the minimum, medium and maximum precipitation for the selected events over the Kuantan River Basin (KRB). The obtained simulated results were compared with the observed data from eight different rainfall gauging stations. The results comparison indicate that WRF model provides better forecasting at some rainfall stations for minimum and medium rainfall events but did not produce good result during maximum rainfall overall. The WSM-6 scheme is found to produce better result compared to WSM-3. The study also found that to acquire accurate precipitation results, it is also required to test some other physics scheme parameterization to enhance the model performance.

scholarly journals Impact of microphysics parameterization schemes in simulation of vardah cyclone using the advanced mesoscale weather research and forecasting model

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.29) ◽  
pp. 272 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Janardhan Saikumar ◽  
T Ramashri
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Parameterization Schemes ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Indian Meteorological Department

The very severe Tropical Cyclone Vardah caused huge damage to property and life in south India during December 2016. The sensitivity of numerical simulations of the very severe tropical cyclone Vardah to different physics parameterization schemes is carried out to determine the best microphysics and cumulus physics parameterization schemes. The WRF Numerical weather prediction model configured with two nested domains. The horizontal resolution of domain-1is 27 km and domain-2 is 9 km. The tropical cyclone Vardah simulated track results were compared with the best track data given by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). WRF model Simulations were carried out using different microphysics (mp) parameterization schemes by fixing convective cumulus physics (cu) option to Grell-3D ensemble scheme and boundary layer option to updated Yonsei University scheme. The Vardah Cyclone track well simulated using WRF Single Moment-3 (WSM3) microphysics scheme in combination with G3D cumulus physics scheme. The cumulus physics and microphysics parameterization schemes influence the cyclone track prediction skill.  

scholarly journals Impacts of Microphysics Schemes and Topography on the Prediction of the Heavy Rainfall in Western Myanmar Associated with Tropical Cyclone ROANU (2016)

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khin Win Maw ◽  
Jinzhong Min
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Leeward Side ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The impacts of different microphysics and boundary schemes and terrain settings on the heavy rainfall over western Myanmar associated with the tropical cyclone (TC) ROANU (2016) are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the microphysics scheme of Purdue Lin (LIN) scheme produces the strongest cyclone. Six experiments with various combinations of microphysics and boundary schemes indicated that a combination of WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) scheme and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) best fits to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data. WSM6-MYJ also performs the best for the track and intensity of rainfall and obtains the best statistics skill scores in the range of maximum rainfall intensity for 48-h. Sensitivity experiments on different terrain settings with Normal Rakhine Mountain (NRM), with Half of Rakhine Mountain (HRM), and Without Rakhine Mountain (WoRM) are designed with the use of WSM6-MYJ scheme. The track of TC ROANU moved northwestward in WoRM and HRM. Due to the presence of Rakhine Mountain, TC track moved into Myanmar and the peak rainfall occurred on the leeward side of the Mountain. In the absence of Rakhine Mountain, a shift in peak rainfall was observed in north side of the Mountain.

scholarly journals High resolution simulations of a tornadic storm affecting Sydney

2021 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Hartigan ◽  
Shev MacNamara ◽  
Lance Leslie ◽  
Milton Speer
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Severe Storms ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Sydney Australia ◽  
Weather Research

On 16 December 2015 a severe thunderstorm and associated tornado affected Sydney causing widespread damage and insured losses of $206 million. Severe impacts occurred in Kurnell, requiring repairs to Sydney's desalination plant which supplies up to 15% of Sydney water during drought, with repairs only completed at the end of 2018. Climatologically, this storm was unusual as it occurred during the morning and had developed over the ocean, rather than developing inland during the afternoon as is the case for many severe storms impacting the Sydney region. Simulations of the Kurnell storm were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on a double nested domain using the Morrison microphysics scheme and the NSSL 2-moment 4-ice microphysics scheme. Both simulations produced severe storms that followed paths similar to the observed storm. However, the storm produced under the Morrison scheme did not have the same morphology as the observed storm. Meanwhile, the storm simulated with the NSSL scheme displayed cyclical low- and mid-level mesocyclone development, which was observed in the Kurnell storm, highlighting that the atmosphere supported the development of severe rotating thunderstorms with the potential for tornadogenesis. The NSSL storm also produced severe hail and surface winds, similar to observations. The ability of WRF to simulate general convective characteristics and a storm similar to that observed displays the applicability of this model to study the causes of severe high-impact Australian thunderstorms. References J. T. Allen and E. R. Allen. A review of severe thunderstorms in Australia. Atmos. Res., 178:347–366, 2016. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.011. Bureau of Meteorology. Severe Storms Archive, 2020. URL http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/stormarchive/. D. T. Dawson II, M. Xue, J. A. Milbrandt, and M. K. Yau. Comparison of evaporation and cold pool development between single-moment and multimoment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized simulations of tornadic thunderstorms. Month. Wea. Rev., 138:1152–1171, 2010. doi:10.1175/2009MWR2956.1. H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horanyi, J. Munoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146:1999–2049, 2020. doi:10.1002/qj.3803. Insurance Council of Australia. Victorian bushfire losses push summer catastrophe bill past $550m, 2016. E. R. Mansell, C. L. Ziegler, and E. C. Bruning. Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics. J. Atmos. Sci., 67:171–194, 2010. doi:10.1175/2009JAS2965.1. R. C. Miller. Notes on analysis and severe-storm forecasting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central, volume 200. Air Weather Service, 1972. URL https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0744042. H. Morrison, J. A. Curry, and V. I. Khvorostyanov. A new double-moment microphysics parameterization for application in cloud and climate models. Part I: Description. J. Atmos. Sci., 62:1665–1677, 2005. doi:10.1175/JAS3446.1. H. Morrison, G. Thompson, and V. Tatarskii. Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one- and two-moment schemes. Month. Wea. Rev., 137:991–1007, 2009. doi:10.1175/2008MWR2556.1. J. G. Powers, J. B. Klemp, W. C. Skamarock, C. A. Davis, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, J. L. Coen, D. J. Gochis, R. Ahmadov, S. E. Peckham, et al. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, system efforts, and future directions. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 98:1717–1737, 2017. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00308.1. H. Richter, A. Protat, J. Taylor, and J. Soderholm. Doppler radar and storm environment observations of a maritime tornadic supercell in Sydney, Australia. In Preprints, 28th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Portland OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc. P, 2016. W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, Z. Liu, J. Berner, W. Wang, J. G. Powers, M. G. Duda, D. Barker, and X.-Y. Huang. A description of the advanced research WRF Model version 4. Technical report, 2019. Storm Prediction Center. The Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF Scale), 2014. URL https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/. R. A. Warren, H. A. Ramsay, S. T. Siems, M. J. Manton, J. R. Peter, A. Protat, and A. Pillalamarri. Radar-based climatology of damaging hailstorms in Brisbane and Sydney, Australia. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146:505–530, 2020. doi:10.1002/qj.3693.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Observed and Modeled Barrier Flow in the Denmark Strait in May 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2385-2404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice K. DuVivier ◽  
John J. Cassano ◽  
Steven Greco ◽  
G. David Emmitt
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Structure Comparison ◽  
Denmark Strait ◽  
Pbl Scheme ◽  
Barrier Jets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Jet Structure

Abstract Mesoscale barrier jets in the Denmark Strait are common in winter months and have the capability to influence open ocean convection. This paper presents the first detailed observational study of a summertime (21 May 2015) barrier wind event in the Denmark Strait using dropsondes and observations from an airborne Doppler wind lidar (DWL). The DWL profiles agree well with dropsonde observations and show a vertically narrow (~250–400 m) barrier jet of 23–28 m s−1 near the Greenland coast that broadens (~300–1000 m) and strengthens farther off coast. In addition, otherwise identical regional high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations of the event are analyzed at four horizontal grid spacings (5, 10, 25, and 50 km), two vertical resolutions (40 and 60 levels), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations [Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino, version 2.5 (MYNN2.5) and University of Washington (UW)] to determine what model configurations best simulate the observed jet structure. Comparison of the WRF simulations with wind observations from satellites, dropsondes, and the airborne DWL scans indicate that the combination of both high horizontal resolution (5 km) and vertical resolution (60 levels) best captures observed barrier jet structure and speeds as well as the observed cloud field, including some convective clouds. Both WRF PBL schemes produced reasonable barrier jets with the UW scheme slightly outperforming the MYNN2.5 scheme. However, further investigation at high horizontal and vertical resolution is needed to determine the impact of the WRF PBL scheme on surface energy budget terms, particularly in the high-latitude maritime environment around Greenland.

On the effective resolution of WRF simulations at microscale grid resolution.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Bolgiani ◽  
Javier Díaz-Fernández ◽  
Lara Quitián-Hernández ◽  
Mariano Sastre ◽  
Daniel Santos-Muñoz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Partial Explanation ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Large Effort ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

<p>As the computational capacity has been largely improved in the last decades, the grid configuration of numerical weather prediction models has stepped into microscale resolutions. Even if mesoscale models are not originally designed to reproduce fine scale phenomena, a large effort is being made by the research community to improve and adapt these systems. However, reasonable doubts exist regarding the ability of the models to forecast this type of events, due to the unfit parametrizations and the appearance of instabilities and lack of sensitivity in the variables. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effective resolution is evaluated for several situations and grid resolutions. This is achieved by assessing the curve of dissipation for the wind kinetic energy. Results show that the simulated energy spectrum responds to different synoptic conditions. Nevertheless, when the model is forced into microscale grid resolutions the dissipation curves present an unrealistic atmospheric energy. This may be a partial explanation to the aforementioned issues and imposes a large uncertainty to forecasting at these resolutions.</p>

scholarly journals Using Varied Microphysics to Account for Uncertainty in Warm-Season QPF in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
pp. 2198-2219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Duda ◽  
Xuguang Wang ◽  
Fanyou Kong ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Relative Operating Characteristic ◽  
Single Moment ◽  
Double Moment ◽  
Range Of Values

Abstract Two approaches for accounting for errors in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) due to uncertainty in the microphysics (MP) parameterization in a convection-allowing ensemble are examined. They include mixed MP (MMP) composed mostly of double-moment schemes and perturbing parameters within the Weather Research and Forecasting single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6) MP scheme (PPMP). Thirty-five cases of real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms during the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2011 Spring Experiment were examined. The MMP ensemble had better fractions Brier scores (FBSs) for most lead times and thresholds, but the PPMP ensemble had better relative operating characteristic (ROC) scores for higher precipitation thresholds. The pooled ensemble formed by randomly drawing five members from the MMP and PPMP ensembles was no more skillful than the more accurate of the MMP and PPMP ensembles. Significant positive impact was found when the two were combined to form a larger ensemble. The QPF and the systematic behaviors of derived microphysical variables were also examined. The skill of the QPF among different members depended on the thresholds, verification metrics, and forecast lead times. The profiles of microphysics variables from the double-moment schemes contained more variation in the vertical than those from the single-moment members. Among the double-moment schemes, WDM6 produced the smallest raindrops and very large number concentrations. Among the PPMP members, the behaviors were found to be consistent with the prescribed intercept parameters. The perturbed intercept parameters used in the PPMP ensemble fell within the range of values retrieved from the double-moment schemes.

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