scholarly journals A Refined Model to Predict Near-Term US Real GDP Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Refined Model ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Near Term

scholarly journals Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (4) ◽  
pp. 1015-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan S. Blinder ◽  
Mark W. Watson
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Performance Gap ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
International Environment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Near Term

The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. (JEL D72, E23, E32, E65, N12, N42)

Analysis of approaches to assessing changes in welfare and real GDP growth during digitalization of the economy

2022 ◽  
pp. 126-146
Author(s):  
S. G. Marichev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Digital Goods ◽  
Relative Ease ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Digital Services ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
The Republic

The paper attempts to estimate, in monetary terms, the volume of free digital services in GDP while assessing the contribution of digitalization to changes in welfare and economic growth. Approaches to such an estimation are analyzed and criticized. In particular, the calculation of the added value created in the digital sector does not properly reflect the economic effect of digitalization. Alternative auxiliary methods for estimating the contribution of digitalization to GDP growth are considered: the creation of satellite accounts of the digital economy within the SNA; the categorization and calculation of “purely” digital goods. The paper analyzes the methodology of calculating GDP which takes into account consumer surpluses from the use of free digital goods. The advantages of this methodology are outlined, including the consideration of a significant part of the digital sector of the economy in the calculation of GDP, as well as the relative ease of its use. This methodology was tested by drawing on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan.

scholarly journals How Negative Is Negative Real GDP Growth?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin L. Kliesen
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp

scholarly journals INNOVATION EFFECT THROUGH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 35 OECD COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽  
Qian Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Development Expenditure

This paper analyzes the effect of research and development (R&D) expenditures on economic growth in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2000-2016. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a multiple regression model. The main findings confirm that an increase in research and development expenditure by 1% would generate an increase of real GDP growth rate to 2.83 %. The implication emerging from this study is that government and institutions need to increase investment in R&D expenditures to fulfill inclusive economic growth perspective.

scholarly journals Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake*

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasco M Carvalho ◽  
Makoto Nirei ◽  
Yukiko U Saito ◽  
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Propagation Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact

Abstract Exploiting the exogenous and regional nature of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, this paper provides a quantification of the role of input-output linkages as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of shocks. We document that the disruption caused by the disaster propagated upstream and downstream along supply chains, affecting the direct and indirect suppliers and customers of disaster-stricken firms. Using a general equilibrium model of production networks, we then obtain an estimate for the overall macroeconomic impact of the disaster by taking these propagation effects into account. We find that the earthquake and its aftermaths resulted in a 0.47 percentage point decline in Japan’s real GDP growth in the year following the disaster.

The Effects of IMF Loan Condition Compliance on GDP Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-96
Author(s):  
Lauren Hackler ◽  
Frank Hefner ◽  
Mark D. Witte
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Loan Program ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The International Monetary Fund ◽  
Jel Classifications ◽  
The Imf

Since beginning operations in 1947, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has evolved from its original purpose of overseeing the world’s monetary system to becoming a loan administrator for member nations facing extreme economic crises. Today, the IMF provides conditional lending programs to catalyze economic recovery and growth in recipient countries. Critics of these programs cite various reasons for conditional loan program failures, naming the borrowing countries, creditor countries, and/or the IMF itself as responsible. Using data from 8,377 loan conditions associated with 93 countries’ IMF loan arrangements from 2000 to 2014, this article studies the effects of complying with individual conditions on the borrowing countries’ real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Our results suggest that real GDP growth rates are directly affected by meeting the compliance standards of select loan conditions. JEL Classifications: 019, F35

Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-220
Author(s):  
Evžen Kočenda ◽  
Karen Poghosyan
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Real Gdp
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