Climatic factors influencing New Zealand pasture resilience under scenarios of future climate change

New Zealand’s intensively managed pastoral agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on grazing livestock and pasture as the primary feed supply. Drawing from recent modelling results, annual pasture yields in New Zealand are projected to be robust to a changing climate due to more favourable growing conditions in winter and early spring and increased plant efficiencies from the CO2 fertilization effect. However, growth is also expected to become more variable and unpredictable, particularly in water-limited regions. A combination of short-term, incremental changes (already part of current practice) and longer-term strategic interventions will be necessary to maintain consistent feed supply under future climate change.

Download Full-text

Including Variability across Climate Change Projections in Assessing Impacts on Water Resources in an Intensively Managed Landscape

Water ◽

10.3390/w11020286 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 286

Author(s):

Bangshuai Han ◽

Shawn G. Benner ◽

Alejandro N. Flores

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Coupled Processes ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Irrigation Amount ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Intensively Managed

：In intensively managed watersheds, water scarcity is a product of interactions between complex biophysical processes and human activities. Understanding how intensively managed watersheds respond to climate change requires modeling these coupled processes. One challenge in assessing the response of these watersheds to climate change lies in adequately capturing the trends and variability of future climates. Here we combine a stochastic weather generator together with future projections of climate change to efficiently create a large ensemble of daily weather for three climate scenarios, reflecting recent past and two future climate scenarios. With a previously developed model that captures rainfall-runoff processes and the redistribution of water according to declared water rights, we use these large ensembles to evaluate how future climate change may impact satisfied and unsatisfied irrigation throughout the study area, the Treasure Valley in Southwest Idaho, USA. The numerical experiments quantify the changing rate of allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amount and reveal that the projected temperature increase more significantly influences allocated and unsatisfied irrigation amounts than precipitation changes. The scenarios identify spatially distinct regions in the study area that are at greater risk of the occurrence of unsatisfied irrigation. This study demonstrates how combining stochastic weather generators and future climate projections can support efforts to assess future risks of negative water resource outcomes. It also allows identification of regions in the study area that may be less suitable for irrigated agriculture in future decades, potentially benefiting planners and managers.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia

Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity ◽

10.13057/biodiv/d180448 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 1680-1695

Author(s):

AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ◽

JATNA SUPRIATNA ◽

DEDY DARNAEDI ◽

ROKHMATULOH ROKHMATULOH ◽

SUTARNO SUTARNO ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Medium ◽

Lower Altitude ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Darnaedi D, Rokhmatuloh, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I, Komala WR, Pradan P. 2017. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of xero-epiphytic selaginellas (Selaginella involvens and S. repanda) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 18: 1680-1695. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges for all life on earth, as it may become the dominant driver of changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss at the global level. Selaginella is a group of spike-mosses that seem easily affected by global warming (climate change) due to requiring water medium for fertilization. However, some species have been adapted to dry condition and may grow as epiphytes, such as S. involvens and S. repanda. Both species are commonly found in opposing a range of elevation. S. involvens is often found in high-altitude regions, whereas S. repanda is often found at lower-altitude regions. The difference in this altitudinal distributions is expected to limit redistribution mechanism of each species to adapt the climate change projections. This study model examines the potential geographic distribution of S. involvens and S. repanda under current climatic conditions and models the impact of projected climate change on their potential distribution. Future climate predictions are made with four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e. RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) and three-time intervals (2030, 2050, 2080), which combine various climatic factors. In this modeling, it can be concluded that S. involvens and S. repanda can adapt to future climate change, and continue to be sustainable, although it is strongly influenced and shifting habitat distribution in some areas.

Download Full-text

Inter-hemispheric linkages in climate change: paleo-perspectives for future climate change

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-2-79-2006 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 79-122 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

J. Shulmeister ◽

D. T. Rodbell ◽

M. K. Gagan ◽

G. O. Seltzer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Zealand ◽

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Early Holocene ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Global Changes ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Oscillatory Systems

Abstract. The Pole-Equator-Pole (PEP) projects of the PANASH (Paleoclimates of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere) programme have significantly advanced our understanding of past climate change on a global basis and helped to integrate paleo-science across regions and research disciplines. PANASH science allows us to constrain predictions for future climate change and to contribute to the management and mitigation of such changes. We identify three broad areas where PEP science makes key contributions. 1. The patterns of global changes: Knowing the exact timing of glacial advances (synchronous or otherwise) during the last glaciation is critical to understanding inter-hemispheric links in climate. Work in PEPI demonstrated that the tropical Andes in South America was deglaciated earlier than the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and that an extended warming began there ca. 21 000 cal years BP. The general pattern is consistent with Antarctica and has now been replicated from studies in Southern Hemisphere (SH) regions of the PEPII transect. That significant deglaciation of SH alpine systems and Antarctica led deglaciation of NH ice sheets may reflect either i) faster response times in alpine systems and Antarctica, ii) regional moisture patterns that influenced glacier mass balance, or iii) a SH temperature forcing that led changes in the NH. This highlights the limitations of current understanding and the need for further fundamental paleoclimate research. 2. Changes in modes of operation of oscillatory climate systems: Work across all the PEP transects has led to the recognition that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has changed markedly through time. It now appears that ENSO operated during the last glacial termination and during the early Holocene, but that precipitation teleconnections even within the Pacific Basin were turned down, or off. In the modern ENSO phenomenon both inter-annual and seven year periodicities are present, with the inter-annual signal dominant. Paleo-data demonstrate that the relative importance of the two periodicities changes through time, with longer periodicities dominant in the early Holocene. 3. The recognition of climate modulation of oscillatory systems by abrupt climate events: We examine the relationship of ENSO to an abrupt SH climate event, the Antarctic cold reversal (ACR), in the New Zealand region. We demonstrate that the onset of the ACR was associated with the apparent switching on of an ENSO signal in New Zealand. We infer that this related to enhanced zonal SW winds with the amplification of the pressure fields allowing an existing but weak ENSO signal to manifest itself. Teleconnections of this nature would be difficult to predict for future abrupt change as boundary conditions cannot readily be specified. Paleo-data are critical to predicting the teleconnections of future abrupt changes.

Download Full-text

Climate Change Scenarios for New Zealand Rainfall

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jam2491.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 46 (5) ◽

pp. 573-590 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

John Sansom ◽

James A. Renwick

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Zealand ◽

General Circulation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Rainfall Time Series ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Extreme Rainfall Events ◽

Rainfall Events

Abstract In terms of the effects of future climate change upon society, some of the most important parameters to estimate are associated with changing risks of extreme rainfall events, both floods and droughts. However, such aspects of the climate system are hard to estimate well using general circulation models (GCMs)—in particular, for a small mountainous landmass such as New Zealand. This paper describes a downscaling technique using broad-scale changes simulated by GCMs to select past analogs of future climate. The analog samples are assumed to represent an unbiased sample of future rainfall and are used to develop detailed descriptions of rainfall statistics using hidden semi-Markov models of rainfall breakpoint information. Such models are used to simulate long synthetic rainfall time series for comparison with the historical record. Results for three New Zealand sites show overall increases in rainfall with climate change, brought about largely by an increased frequency of rainfall events rather than an increase in rainfall intensity. There was little evidence for significant increases in high-intensity short-duration rainfalls at any site. Such results suggest that, although regional increases of rainfall are consistent with expected future climate changes, it may be that circulation changes, rather than temperature (and vapor pressure) changes, will be the more important determinant of future rainfall distributions, at least for the coming few decades.

Download Full-text

Inter-hemispheric linkages in climate change: paleo-perspectives for future climate change

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-2-167-2006 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 167-185 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

J. Shulmeister ◽

D. T. Rodbell ◽

M. K. Gagan ◽

G. O. Seltzer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

New Zealand ◽

Southern Hemisphere ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Early Holocene ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Global Changes ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Oscillatory Systems

Abstract. The Pole-Equator-Pole (PEP) projects of the PANASH (Paleoclimates of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere) programme have significantly advanced our understanding of past climate change on a global basis and helped to integrate paleo-science across regions and research disciplines. PANASH science allows us to constrain predictions for future climate change and to contribute to the management of consequent environmental changes. We identify three broad areas where PEP science makes key contributions. 1. The pattern of global changes. Knowing the exact timing of glacial advances (synchronous or otherwise) during the last glaciation is critical to understanding inter-hemispheric links in climate. Work in PEPI demonstrated that the tropical Andes in South America were deglaciated earlier than the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and that an extended warming began there ca. 21 000 cal years BP. The general pattern is consistent with Antarctica and has now been replicated from studies in Southern Hemisphere (SH) regions of the PEPII transect. That significant deglaciation of SH alpine systems and Antarctica led deglaciation of NH ice sheets may reflect either i) faster response times in alpine systems and Antarctica, ii) regional moisture patterns that influenced glacier mass balance, or iii) a SH temperature forcing that led changes in the NH. This highlights the limitations of current understanding and the need for further fundamental paleoclimate research. 2. Changes in modes of operation of oscillatory climate systems. Work across all the PEP transects has led to the recognition that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has changed markedly through time. It now appears that ENSO operated during the last glacial termination and during the early Holocene, but that precipitation teleconnections even within the Pacific Basin were turned down, or off. In the modern ENSO phenomenon both inter-annual and seven year periodicities are present, with the inter-annual signal dominant. Paleo-data demonstrate that the relative importance of the two periodicities changes through time, with longer periodicities dominant in the early Holocene. 3. The recognition of climate modulation of oscillatory systems by climate events. We examine the relationship of ENSO to a SH climate event, the Antarctic cold reversal (ACR), in the New Zealand region. We demonstrate that the onset of the ACR was associated with the apparent switching on of an ENSO signal in New Zealand. We infer that this related to enhanced zonal SW winds with the amplification of the pressure fields allowing an existing but weak ENSO signal to manifest itself. Teleconnections of this nature would be difficult to predict for future abrupt change as boundary conditions cannot readily be specified. Paleo-data are critical to predicting the teleconnections of future changes.

Download Full-text