scholarly journals THE ESTIMATION OF INFLUENCE OF THE SHARP OIL PRICES REDUCTION AND SANCTIONS ON THE DYNAMICS OF RUSSIAN CRUCIAL MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 228-236
Author(s):  
Yuriy A. Dzyuba ◽  
Dmitriy V. Kolyuzhnov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Historical Decomposition ◽  
Household Preferences ◽  
The Impact

This article provides a brief analysis of the impact of various macroeconomic shocks caused by the sanctions regime and the sharp drop in oil prices from 2014 to 2018. The authors identified shocks that greater extent provoked a GDP decline and inflation increase using the constructed DSGE-model of the Russian economy and the obtained historical decomposition for the quarterly growth rates of the investigated macro-indicators. According to calculations, the inflation growth from 2014 to 2015 can be interpreted as the sum of the adverse effects from the change in household preferences, the shock in oil prices, and the negative contribution of the stabilizing monetary policy. The observed GDP decline from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015 is explained by the synergistic effect of monetary policy shocks and a sharp drop in oil prices.

Real interest rate, income and bank loans: panel evidence from Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-243
Author(s):  
Mohamed Aseel Shokr
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank loans in Egypt using generalized method of moments (GMM) model. Also, it investigates the impact of bank level variables, namely, total assets, liquidity, capital and income on bank loans. It develops the equation of loans, which is introduced by Ehrmann et al. (2002) using bank level variables such as income and the interaction between income and interest rate. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the impact of monetary policy shocks on bank loans in Egypt by applying the GMM technique and panel data from 1996 to 2014. Findings The results reveal that real interest rate has a significant impact on bank loans, which indicates that the bank lending channel is effective in Egypt. Furthermore, the bank level variables, namely, banks’ size, liquidity and income have significant effects on bank loans in Egypt, which sustains the heterogeneous effect of monetary policy on bank loans. Therefore, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can adjust interest rate to influence the bank loans and total demand. Research limitations/implications It does not examine the effect of monetary policy on small and large banks in Egypt. Practical implications The policy implications from this paper indicate that the monetary authority in Egypt should adjust interest rate to stabilize the bank loan supply. By stabilizing the bank loans, the monetary authority is able to stabilize investment, consumption and total demand. Social implications The relevance of bank lending channel indicates that the role of commercial banks is very important in transmitting monetary policy shocks to the real sector. Originality/value It is important for the CBE, banks and people because it shows the effectiveness of bank lending channel and the effect of global financial crisis on the Egyptian economy.

scholarly journals The Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Performance of Listed Real Estate Companies and Reits

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-92
Author(s):  
Viktorija Cohen ◽  
Arūnas Burinskas
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Using quarterly data from 2006:Q1 to 2019:Q3 (55 observations), this paper examines 18 Eurozone macroeconomic variables that represent monetary policy, external and construction sectors’ performance, economic growth, investment, households’ earnings, inflation and assesses their impact on the performance of the European listed real estate companies and REITs. Empirical results demonstrate that the European listed real estate market is strongly influenced by the supply side: the construction sector and the inflation of producers’ prices; while the demand side is strongly affected by the expansionary monetary policy of ECB. Furthermore, some primary findings propose that US expansionary monetary policy shocks have an effect on the European listed real estate market. This conclusion demands further thorough research.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 472
Author(s):  
Petre Caraiani ◽  
Adrian Călin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks, including unconventional policy measures, on the bubbles of the energy sector, for the case of the United States. We estimate a time-varying Bayesian VAR model that allows for quantifying the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and bubbles. The energy sector is measured through the S&P Energy Index, while bubbles are measured through the difference between asset prices and the corresponding dividends for the energy sector. We find significant differences in the impact of monetary policy shocks for the aggregate economy and for the energy sector. The findings seem sensitive to the interest rate use, i.e., whether one uses the shadow interest rate or the long-term interest rate.

Financial Constraints, Monetary Policy Shocks, and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 4367-4402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudheer Chava ◽  
Alex Hsu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We analyze the impact ofa unanticipated monetary policy changes on the cross-section of U.S. equity returns. Financially constrained firms earn a significantly lower (higher) return following surprise interest rate increases (decreases) as compared to unconstrained firms. This differential return response between constrained and unconstrained firms appears after a delay of 3 to 4 days. Further, unanticipated Federal funds rate increases are associated with a larger decrease in expected cash flow news, but not discount rate news, for constrained firms relative to unconstrained firms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

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