scholarly journals Forecasting Aggregate Period Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility

10.3386/w3133 ◽  
1989 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Heckman ◽  
James Walker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Neoclassical Model ◽  
Birth Rates

Time-Series Studies of the French Suicide Rate Using Age-Adjusted Rates

1998 ◽  
Vol 86 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-126
Author(s):  
David Lester
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Female Suicide ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Time Series Studies ◽  
Age Adjusted Rates

For France from 1950 to 1985, divorce, marriage and birth rates predicted the crude and the age-adjusted male and female suicide rates identically.

Time-series as an alternative analysis of seasonality in schizophrenia birth-rates

1995 ◽  
Vol 15 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 202-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.L. Welham ◽  
G.J. McLachlan ◽  
J.J. McGrath
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Alternative Analysis ◽  
Birth Rates

RELATIVE INFLUENCES ON RECENT CHANGES IN THE FIRST BIRTH RATIO IN THE UNITED STATES

2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
ROSALIND BERKOWITZ KING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
The United States ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
The 1960S

Researchers in psychology have focused a great deal of attention on the potential greater predisposition to achievement among first-born children relative to their siblings. Focusing on the United States as an example, a time series of the first birth ratio is used to show how the changing prevalence of first births relative to higher order births has altered the composition of birth cohorts, and the ratio is decomposed into four factors. Results show that the ratio increased significantly in the 1960s and early 1970s, but changed only slightly in the following decades. While more recent birth cohorts are composed of larger proportions of first-born children, the majority of children are still born as siblings. Contrary to expectations, the primary source of change was the proportion childless rather than decreasing higher order birth rates.

scholarly journals The inner state differences of preterm birth rates in Brazil: a time series study

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosana Rosseto de Oliveira ◽  
Emiliana Cristina Melo ◽  
Elizabeth Fujimori ◽  
Thais Aidar de Freitas Mathias
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Preterm Birth ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Series Study

scholarly journals Did England's Teenage Pregnancy Strategy reduce pregnancy rates in England? A Natural Experiment study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J Baxter ◽  
Ruth Dundas ◽  
Frank Popham ◽  
Peter Craig
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Teenage Pregnancy ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Pregnancy Rates ◽  
Control Population ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

Objective To re-evaluate the impact of England's Teenage Pregnancy Strategy (1999 to 2010) on pregnancy and birth rates. Hailed as a unique, nation-wide, comprehensive, evidence-based intervention, the strategy has been promoted as a reproducible model for other countries with high teenage pregnancy rates. Design Controlled interrupted time series and synthetic control analyses using routinely collected data on births and abortions in 16 countries. Setting The Strategy was published in July 1999 and implemented from 2000-2010, with increased investment in areas with higher rates of under-18 pregnancies from 2006 onwards. Participants Women aged under 20 living in England during the intervention period were considered to be the target population. Women in Scotland and Wales were the control population in our interrupted time series analyses. Women from European and English-speaking high-income countries were the control population in our synthetic control analyses. Main outcome measures The pregnancy rate among women aged under-18 was our primary outcome, as this was the target of the Strategy. We used under-18 births and under-20 pregnancies as secondary outcomes. Results In the controlled interrupted time series analyses, trends in rates of teenage pregnancy in England were similar to Scotland (0.08 fewer pregnancies per 1,000 women per year in England; -0.74 to 0.59) and Wales (0.14 more pregnancies per 1,000 women per year in England; -0.48 to 0.76). In synthetic control analyses, under-18 birth rates were very similar in England and the synthetic control. Under-20 pregnancy rates were marginally higher in England than in the synthetic control. Placebo testing and other sensitivity analyses supported the finding of no observable effect. Conclusion Although teenage pregnancies and births in England fell following implementation of the Teenage Pregnancy Strategy, comparisons with other countries suggest the strategy had little, if any, effect. The strategy should not be used as a model for future public health interventions in England or in other countries. The protocol for the analysis was published online at https://osf.io/tdbr8/

Time-Series Studies of the Murder and Homicide Rates in the USA

1994 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 862-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Social Integration ◽  
Crime Statistics ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Mortality Statistics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Time Series Studies ◽  
Time Series Analyses

Time-series analyses of the homicide rates (from mortality statistics) and murder rates (from crime statistics) for the period 1960 to 1985 gave identical magnitudes of association with measures of domestic social integration (marriage, divorce, and birth rates).

Domestic Integration and Suicide in Spain

1996 ◽  
Vol 79 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1162-1162
Author(s):  
David Lester ◽  
Juan Manuel Gutiérrez García
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Time Series Analyses

Time-series analyses for data collected in Spain for 1950–1985 indicated that marriage and birth rates were positively associated with suicide rates.

The LDE-Type Flare Occurrence (1969-1993)

1994 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 279-282
Author(s):  
A. Antalová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fourier Analysis ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
List Type ◽  
Type Number ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Type Iv ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Cycle Maximum ◽  
Flare Index

AbstractThe occurrence of LDE-type flares in the last three cycles has been investigated. The Fourier analysis spectrum was calculated for the time series of the LDE-type flare occurrence during the 20-th, the 21-st and the rising part of the 22-nd cycle. LDE-type flares (Long Duration Events in SXR) are associated with the interplanetary protons (SEP and STIP as well), energized coronal archs and radio type IV emission. Generally, in all the cycles considered, LDE-type flares mainly originated during a 6-year interval of the respective cycle (2 years before and 4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum). The following significant periodicities were found:• in the 20-th cycle: 1.4, 2.1, 2.9, 4.0, 10.7 and 54.2 of month,• in the 21-st cycle: 1.2, 1.6, 2.8, 4.9, 7.8 and 44.5 of month,• in the 22-nd cycle, till March 1992: 1.4, 1.8, 2.4, 7.2, 8.7, 11.8 and 29.1 of month,• in all interval (1969-1992):a)the longer periodicities: 232.1, 121.1 (the dominant at 10.1 of year), 80.7, 61.9 and 25.6 of month,b)the shorter periodicities: 4.7, 5.0, 6.8, 7.9, 9.1, 15.8 and 20.4 of month.Fourier analysis of the LDE-type flare index (FI) yields significant peaks at 2.3 - 2.9 months and 4.2 - 4.9 months. These short periodicities correspond remarkably in the all three last solar cycles. The larger periodicities are different in respective cycles.

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