scholarly journals Factor-Based Framework for Multivariate and Multi-step-ahead Forecasting of Large Scale Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacopo De Stefani ◽  
Gianluca Bontempi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Low Dimensional ◽  
Computational Resources ◽  
Multivariate Forecasting

State-of-the-art multivariate forecasting methods are restricted to low dimensional tasks, linear dependencies and short horizons. The technological advances (notably the Big data revolution) are instead shifting the focus to problems characterized by a large number of variables, non-linear dependencies and long forecasting horizons. In the last few years, the majority of the best performing techniques for multivariate forecasting have been based on deep-learning models. However, such models are characterized by high requirements in terms of data availability and computational resources and suffer from a lack of interpretability. To cope with the limitations of these methods, we propose an extension to the DFML framework, a hybrid forecasting technique inspired by the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) approach, a successful forecasting methodology in econometrics. This extension improves the capabilities of the DFM approach, by implementing and assessing both linear and non-linear factor estimation techniques as well as model-driven and data-driven factor forecasting techniques. We assess several method integrations within the DFML, and we show that the proposed technique provides competitive results both in terms of forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency on multiple very large-scale (>102 variables and > 103 samples) real forecasting tasks.

scholarly journals Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and The Phillips Correlation

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Reis ◽  
Mark W Watson
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Dynamic Factor Model ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Low Dimensional

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices in the United States since 1959 to separate them into three independent components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, a low-dimensional index of aggregate relative-price changes, and an index of equiproportional changes in all inflation rates that we label “pure” inflation. We use the estimates to answer two questions. First, what share of the variability of inflation is associated with each component, and how are they related to conventional measures of monetary policy and relative-price shocks? Second, what drives the Phillips correlation between inflation and measures of real activity? (JEL E21, E23, E31, E52)

scholarly journals SIMNETS: a computationally efficient and scalable framework for identifying sub-networks of functionally similar neurons

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacqueline B. Hynes ◽  
David M. Brandman ◽  
Jonas B. Zimmerman ◽  
John P. Donoghue ◽  
Carlos E. Vargas-Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Intrinsic Geometry ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Ca1 Region ◽  
Hippocampal Ca1 Region ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Low Dimensional

AbstractRecent technological advances have made it possible to simultaneously record the activity of thousands of individual neurons in the cortex of awake behaving animals. However, the comparatively slower development of analytical tools capable of handling the scale and complexity of large-scale recordings is a growing problem for the field of neuroscience. We present the Similarity Networks (SIMNETS) algorithm: a computationally efficient and scalable method for identifying and visualizing sub-networks of functionally similar neurons within larger simultaneously recorded ensembles. While traditional approaches tend to group neurons according to the statistical similarities of inter-neuron spike patterns, our approach begins by mathematically capturing the intrinsic relationship between the spike train outputs of each neuron across experimental conditions, before any comparisons are made between neurons. This strategy estimates the intrinsic geometry of each neuron’s output space, allowing us to capture the information processing properties of each neuron in a common format that is easily compared between neurons. Dimensionality reduction tools are then used to map high-dimensional neuron similarity vectors into a low-dimensional space where functional groupings are identified using clustering and statistical techniques. SIMNETS makes minimal assumptions about single neuron encoding properties; is efficient enough to run on consumer-grade hardware (100 neurons < 4s run-time); and has a computational complexity that scales near-linearly with neuron number. These properties make SIMNETS well-suited for examining large networks of neurons during complex behaviors. We validate the ability of our approach for detecting statistically and physiologically meaningful functional groupings in a population of synthetic neurons with known ground-truth, as well three publicly available datasets of ensemble recordings from primate primary visual and motor cortex and the rat hippocampal CA1 region.

scholarly journals Advanced Materials and Assembly Strategies for Wearable Biosensors: A Review

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eun Kwang Lee ◽  
Hocheon Yoo ◽  
Chi Hwan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Health Monitoring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Functional Materials ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Advanced Materials ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Inorganic Nanomaterials ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Low Dimensional

Recent technological advances of soft functional materials and their assembly into wearable (i.e., on-skin) biosensors lead to the development of ground-breaking biomedical applications ranging from wearable health monitoring to drug delivery and to human-robot interactions. These wearable biosensors are capable of unobtrusively interfacing with the human skin and enabling long-term reliable monitoring of clinically useful biosignals associated with health and other conditions affecting well-being. Scalable assembly of diverse wearable biosensors has been realized through the elaborate combination of intrinsically stretchable materials including organic polymers or/and low-dimensional inorganic nanomaterials. In this Chapter, we review various types of wearable biosensors within the context of human health monitoring with a focus of their constituent materials, mechanics designs, and large-scale assembly strategies. In addition, we discuss the current challenges and potential future research directions at the end of this chapter.

scholarly journals Transferable representations of single-cell transcriptomic data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ethan Weinberger ◽  
Su-In Lee
Keyword(s):  
Single Cell ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rna Seq ◽  
Cell Type ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Technical Noise ◽  
Transcriptomic Data ◽  
Low Dimensional ◽  
Computational Resources

Advances in single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) technologies are enabling the construction of large-scale, human-annotated reference cell atlases, creating unprecedented opportunities to accelerate future research. However, effectively leveraging information from these atlases, such as clustering labels or cell type annotations, remains challenging due to substantial technical noise and sparsity in scRNA-seq measurements. To address this problem, we present HD-AE, a deep autoencoder designed to extract integrated low-dimensional representations of scRNA-seq measurements across datasets from different labs and experimental conditions. Unlike previous approaches, HD-AE's representations successfully transfer to new query datasets without needing to retrain the model. Researchers without substantial computational resources or machine learning expertise can thus leverage the robust representations learned by pretrained HD-AE models to compare embeddings of their own data with previously generated sets of reference embeddings.

Financial distress determinants among SMEs: empirical evidence from Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darush Yazdanfar ◽  
Peter Öhman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically investigate determinants of financial distress among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) during the global financial crisis and post-crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachSeveral statistical methods, including multiple binary logistic regression, were used to analyse a longitudinal cross-sectional panel data set of 3,865 Swedish SMEs operating in five industries over the 2008–2015 period.FindingsThe results suggest that financial distress is influenced by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. the global financial crisis) and, in particular, by various firm-specific characteristics (i.e. performance, financial leverage and financial distress in previous year). However, firm size and industry affiliation have no significant relationship with financial distress.Research limitationsDue to data availability, this study is limited to a sample of Swedish SMEs in five industries covering eight years. Further research could examine the generalizability of these findings by investigating other firms operating in other industries and other countries.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine determinants of financial distress among SMEs operating in Sweden using data from a large-scale longitudinal cross-sectional database.

scholarly journals Nebula: ultra-efficient mapping-free structural variant genotyper

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parsoa Khorsand ◽  
Fereydoun Hormozdiari
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Structural Variants ◽  
Sequencing Technologies ◽  
Generic Framework ◽  
Common Genetic Variants ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Complex Events ◽  
Comparable Accuracy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Computational Resources

Abstract Large scale catalogs of common genetic variants (including indels and structural variants) are being created using data from second and third generation whole-genome sequencing technologies. However, the genotyping of these variants in newly sequenced samples is a nontrivial task that requires extensive computational resources. Furthermore, current approaches are mostly limited to only specific types of variants and are generally prone to various errors and ambiguities when genotyping complex events. We are proposing an ultra-efficient approach for genotyping any type of structural variation that is not limited by the shortcomings and complexities of current mapping-based approaches. Our method Nebula utilizes the changes in the count of k-mers to predict the genotype of structural variants. We have shown that not only Nebula is an order of magnitude faster than mapping based approaches for genotyping structural variants, but also has comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art approaches. Furthermore, Nebula is a generic framework not limited to any specific type of event. Nebula is publicly available at https://github.com/Parsoa/Nebula.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Factor and Neural Networks Analysis of the Co-movement of Public Revenues in the EMU

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosimo Magazzino ◽  
Marco Mele
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Composite Nature ◽  
Empirical Demonstration ◽  
Public Revenues

AbstractThis paper shows that the co-movement of public revenues in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is driven by an unobserved common factor. Our empirical analysis uses yearly data covering the period 1970–2014 for 12 selected EMU member countries. We have found that this common component has a significant impact on public revenues in the majority of the countries. We highlight this common pattern in a dynamic factor model (DFM). Since this factor is unobservable, it is difficult to agree on what it represents. We argue that the latent factor that emerges from the two different empirical approaches used might have a composite nature, being the result of both the more general convergence of the economic cycles of the countries in the area and the increasingly better tuned tax structure. However, the original aspect of our paper is the use of a back-propagation neural networks (BPNN)-DF model to test the results of the time-series. At the level of computer programming, the results obtained represent the first empirical demonstration of the latent factor’s presence.

scholarly journals Vehicular Crowdsourcing for Congestion Support in Smart Cities

Smart Cities ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 662-685
Author(s):  
Stephan Olariu
Keyword(s):  
Smart City ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Traffic Signal Control ◽  
Signal Timing ◽  
Adaptive Traffic Signal Control ◽  
Traffic Conditions ◽  
Direct Benefits ◽  
Traffic Signal Control Systems ◽  
Computational Resources

Under present-day practices, the vehicles on our roadways and city streets are mere spectators that witness traffic-related events without being able to participate in the mitigation of their effect. This paper lays the theoretical foundations of a framework for harnessing the on-board computational resources in vehicles stuck in urban congestion in order to assist transportation agencies with preventing or dissipating congestion through large-scale signal re-timing. Our framework is called VACCS: Vehicular Crowdsourcing for Congestion Support in Smart Cities. What makes this framework unique is that we suggest that in such situations the vehicles have the potential to cooperate with various transportation authorities to solve problems that otherwise would either take an inordinate amount of time to solve or cannot be solved for lack for adequate municipal resources. VACCS offers direct benefits to both the driving public and the Smart City. By developing timing plans that respond to current traffic conditions, overall traffic flow will improve, carbon emissions will be reduced, and economic impacts of congestion on citizens and businesses will be lessened. It is expected that drivers will be willing to donate under-utilized on-board computing resources in their vehicles to develop improved signal timing plans in return for the direct benefits of time savings and reduced fuel consumption costs. VACCS allows the Smart City to dynamically respond to traffic conditions while simultaneously reducing investments in the computational resources that would be required for traditional adaptive traffic signal control systems.

scholarly journals Quantitative Recognition and Characteristic Analysis of Production-Living-Ecological Space Evolution for Five Resource-Based Cities: Zululand, Xuzhou, Lota, Surf Coast and Ruhr

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1563
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Tao ◽  
Qianxin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Remote Sensing Image ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Function Evaluation ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Accurate Identification ◽  
Living Space ◽  
Evolution Characteristics

The accurate identification of PLES changes and the discovery of their evolution characteristics is a key issue to improve the ability of the sustainable development for resource-based urban areas. However, the current methods are unsuitable for the long-term and large-scale PLES investigation. In this study, a modified method of PLES recognition is proposed based on the remote sensing image classification and land function evaluation technology. A multi-dimensional index system is constructed, which can provide a comprehensive evaluation for PLES evolution characteristics. For validation of the proposed methods, the remote sensing image, geographic information, and socio-economic data of five resource-based urbans (Zululand in South Africa, Xuzhou in China, Lota in Chile, Surf Coast in Australia, and Ruhr in Germany) from 1975 to 2020 are collected and tested. The results show that the data availability and calculation efficiency are significantly improved by the proposed method, and the recognition precision is better than 87% (Kappa coefficient). Furthermore, the PLES evolution characteristics show obvious differences at the different urban development stages. The expansions of production, living, and ecological space are fastest at the mining, the initial, and the middle ecological restoration stages, respectively. However, the expansion of living space is always increasing at any stage, and the disorder expansion of living space has led to the decrease of integration of production and ecological spaces. Therefore, the active polices should be formulated to guide the transformation of the living space expansion from jumping-type and spreading-type to filling-type, and the renovation of abandoned industrial and mining lands should be encouraged.

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