scholarly journals Sensitivity of Skill Score Metric to Validate Lagrangian Simulations in Coastal Areas: Recommendations for Search and Rescue Applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adèle Révelard ◽  
Emma Reyes ◽  
Baptiste Mourre ◽  
Ismael Hernández-Carrasco ◽  
Anna Rubio ◽  
...  

Search and rescue (SAR) modeling applications, mostly based on Lagrangian tracking particle algorithms, rely on the accuracy of met-ocean forecast models. Skill assessment methods are therefore required to evaluate the performance of ocean models in predicting particle trajectories. The Skill Score (SS), based on the Normalized Cumulative Lagrangian Separation (NCLS) distance between simulated and satellite-tracked drifter trajectories, is a commonly used metric. However, its applicability in coastal areas, where most of the SAR incidents occur, is difficult and sometimes unfeasible, because of the high variability that characterizes the coastal dynamics and the lack of drifter observations. In this study, we assess the performance of four models available in the Ibiza Channel (Western Mediterranean Sea) and evaluate the applicability of the SS in such coastal risk-prone regions seeking for a functional implementation in the context of SAR operations. We analyze the SS sensitivity to different forecast horizons and examine the best way to quantify the average model performance, to avoid biased conclusions. Our results show that the SS increases with forecast time in most cases. At short forecast times (i.e., 6 h), the SS exhibits a much higher variability due to the short trajectory lengths observed compared to the separation distance obtained at timescales not properly resolved by the models. However, longer forecast times lead to the overestimation of the SS due to the high variability of the surface currents. Findings also show that the averaged SS, as originally defined, can be misleading because of the imposition of a lower limit value of zero. To properly evaluate the averaged skill of the models, a revision of its definition, the so-called SS∗, is recommended. Furthermore, whereas drifters only provide assessment along their drifting paths, we show that trajectories derived from high-frequency radar (HFR) effectively provide information about the spatial distribution of the model performance inside the HFR coverage. HFR-derived trajectories could therefore be used for complementing drifter observations. The SS is, on average, more favorable to coarser-resolution models because of the double-penalty error, whereas higher-resolution models show both very low and very high performance during the experiments.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Hernandez-Lasheras ◽  
Baptiste Mourre ◽  
Alejandro Orfila ◽  
Alex Santana ◽  
Emma Reyes ◽  
...  

Abstract. The impact of the assimilation of HFR (High-Frequency Radar) observations in a high-resolution regional model is evaluated, focusing on the improvement of the mesoscale dynamics. The study area is the Ibiza Channel, located in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The resulting fields are tested against trajectories from 13 drifters. Six different assimilation experiments are compared to a control run (no assimilation). The experiments consists in assimilating (i) Sea surface temperature, sea level anomaly and Argo profiles (generic observation dataset); the generic observation dataset plus (ii) HFR total velocities and (iii) HFR radial velocities. Moreover, for each dataset two different initialization methods are assessed: a) restarting directly from the analysis after the assimilation or b) using an intermediate initialization step applying a strong nudging towards the analysis fields. The experiments assimilating generic observations plus HFR total velocities with the direct restart provides the best results, improving by 53 % the average separation distance between drifters and virtual particles after the first 48 hours of simulation in comparison to the control run. When using the nudging initialization step, the best results are found when assimilating HFR radial velocities, with a reduction of the mean separation distance by around 48 %. Results show the capability of the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation data-assimilative system to correct surface currents not only inside but also beyond the HFR coverage area. The assimilation of radial observations benefits from the smoothing effect associated with the application of the intermediate nudging step.


Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1175
Author(s):  
Jaime Hernandez-Lasheras ◽  
Baptiste Mourre ◽  
Alejandro Orfila ◽  
Alex Santana ◽  
Emma Reyes ◽  
...  

Abstract. The impact of the assimilation of HFR (high-frequency radar) observations in a high-resolution regional model is evaluated, focusing on the improvement of the mesoscale dynamics. The study area is the Ibiza Channel, located in the western Mediterranean Sea. The resulting fields are tested against trajectories from 13 drifters. Six different assimilation experiments are compared to a control run (no assimilation). The experiments consist of assimilating (i) sea surface temperature, sea level anomaly, and Argo profiles (generic observation dataset); the generic observation dataset plus (ii) HFR total velocities and (iii) HFR radial velocities. Moreover, for each dataset, two different initialization methods are assessed: (a) restarting directly from the analysis after the assimilation or (b) using an intermediate initialization step applying a strong nudging towards the analysis fields. The experiments assimilating generic observations plus HFR total velocities with the direct restart provide the best results, reducing by 53 % the average separation distance between drifters and virtual particles after the first 48 h of simulation in comparison to the control run. When using the nudging initialization step, the best results are found when assimilating HFR radial velocities with a reduction of the mean separation distance by around 48 %. Results show that the integration of HFR observations in the data assimilation system enhances the prediction of surface currents inside the area covered by both antennas, while not degrading the correction achieved thanks to the assimilation of generic data sources beyond it. The assimilation of radial observations benefits from the smoothing effect associated with the application of the intermediate nudging step.


2013 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 59-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.C. Félix-Hackradt ◽  
C.W. Hackradt ◽  
J. Treviño-Otón ◽  
M. Segovia-Viadero ◽  
A. Pérez-Ruzafa ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David March ◽  
Kristian Metcalfe ◽  
Joaquin Tintoré ◽  
Brendan J. Godley

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unparalleled global impacts on human mobility. In the ocean, ship-based activities are thought to have been impacted due to severe restrictions on human movements and changes in consumption. Here, we quantify and map global change in marine traffic during the first half of 2020. There were decreases in 70.2% of Exclusive Economic Zones but changes varied spatially and temporally in alignment with confinement measures. Global declines peaked in April, with a reduction in traffic occupancy of 1.4% and decreases found across 54.8% of the sampling units. Passenger vessels presented more marked and longer lasting decreases. A regional assessment in the Western Mediterranean Sea gave further insights regarding the pace of recovery and long-term changes. Our approach provides guidance for large-scale monitoring of the progress and potential effects of COVID-19 on vessel traffic that may subsequently influence the blue economy and ocean health.


2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Mele ◽  
Maria Pennino ◽  
Maria Piras ◽  
José Bellido ◽  
Giovanni Garippa ◽  
...  

AbstractThe metazoan parasite assemblage of the head of 30 specimens of the Atlantic chub mackerel (Scomber colias) from the western Mediterranean Sea was analysed. Eight species of parasites were found, four mazocraeid monogeneans: Grubea cochlear (prevalence = 10%), Kuhnia scombercolias (59%), K. scombri (52%), Pseudokuhnia minor (86%); three didymozoid trematodes: Nematobothrium cf. faciale (21%), N. filiforme (41%), N. scombri (7%); and one laerneopodid copepod: Clavelissa scombri (7%). Results were compared with previously published data from 14 localities of the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, using non-parametric univariate and multivariate analyses, and the whole parasite fauna of S. colias was compared with that of the congeners (S. australasicus, S. japonicus and S. scombrus). Parasites showed to reflect the biogeographical and phylogenetic history of host. From a methodological point of view, the use of both non-parametric univariate and multivariate techniques proved to be effective tools to detect dissimilarities between parasite assemblages.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 208
Author(s):  
Valentina Vannucchi ◽  
Stefano Taddei ◽  
Valerio Capecchi ◽  
Michele Bendoni ◽  
Carlo Brandini

A 29-year wind/wave hindcast is produced over the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1990–2018. The dataset is obtained by downscaling the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalyses, which provide the initial and boundary conditions for a numerical chain based on limited-area weather and wave models: the BOLAM, MOLOCH and WaveWatch III (WW3) models. In the WW3 computational domain, an unstructured mesh is used. The variable resolutions reach up to 500 m along the coasts of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian seas (Italy), the main objects of the study. The wind/wave hindcast is validated using observations from coastal weather stations and buoys. The wind validation provides velocity correlations between 0.45 and 0.76, while significant wave height correlations are much higher—between 0.89 and 0.96. The results are also compared to the original low-resolution ERA5 dataset, based on assimilated models. The comparison shows that the downscaling improves the hindcast reliability, particularly in the coastal regions, and especially with regard to wind and wave directions.


2007 ◽  
Vol 105 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 101-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tommaso Tesi ◽  
Stefano Miserocchi ◽  
Miguel A. Goñi ◽  
Leonardo Langone

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