scholarly journals The Efficacy and Superiority of the Expert Systems in Reservoir Engineering Decision Making Processes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6347
Author(s):  
Turgay Ertekin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Reservoir Engineering ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Computational Overhead ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Gut Feelings ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Computational Platform

In the process of making a critical decision in reservoir engineering, most of the time we find ourselves in a quandary. Like in any other scientific or technical field, when we find ourselves having to make a critical decision at a juncture, we cannot go ahead with our gut feelings, but rather must figure out what knowledge and information is lacking. In generating the missing knowledge and understanding, the depth and the rapid nature of the search will surface as two critical parameters. In other words, most of the time, a shallow search that can be conducted in a short period of time will not produce the missing information and the knowledge and more often, possibly, it will provide misguidance. When a large volume of sources of information is reviewed and the missing knowledge is generated using unbiased deductive methodologies, then, one can make an informed decision based on facts rather than intuition. In achieving such a desired result, it will be necessary to use fast algorithmic protocols to not sacrifice the wide nature of the search domain, to ensure that it is possible to generate the desired solution. In this paper, it is shown how in reservoir engineering desirable decisions can be reached in a timely manner choosing the most appealing course of action. It is true that in reservoir engineering applications, the decision-making process may involve a blend of intuition and scientific and rational thinking, critical factors such as blind spots, and the use of conventional methodologies that make decision-making hard to fully operationalize or to get a handle on. Luckily, there are mathematical and computational tools to ensure that scientists/engineers consistently make correct decisions, which include gathering as much information as possible and considering all possible alternatives (like combinatorial analysis protocols). The tool (model) proposed in this paper for making critical reservoir engineering decisions is a new computational platform/protocol that exploits the advantages of mathematically developed formulations and of the models that are based on the data/information collected. It is furthermore shown that the analyses conducted, and critical decisions reached, represent more thorough and far-reaching solutions that are structured using less computational overhead, thereby increasing the quality of the decision even further.

“It's Not Humanly Possible to Do Everything”: Perspectives on Intervention Decision-Making Processes of Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erinn Finke ◽  
Kathryn Drager ◽  
Elizabeth C. Serpentine
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individualized Education Program ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Spectrum Disorders ◽  
Interview Methodology ◽  
Communication Interventions

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to understand the decision-making processes used by parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) related to communication-based interventions. Method Qualitative interview methodology was used. Data were gathered through interviews. Each parent had a child with ASD who was at least four-years-old; lived with their child with ASD; had a child with ASD without functional speech for communication; and used at least two different communication interventions. Results Parents considered several sources of information for learning about interventions and provided various reasons to initiate and discontinue a communication intervention. Parents also discussed challenges introduced once opinions of the school individualized education program (IEP) team had to be considered. Conclusions Parents of children with ASD primarily use individual decision-making processes to select interventions. This discrepancy speaks to the need for parents and professionals to share a common “language” about interventions and the decision-making process.

scholarly journals International Student Recruitment Strategies in Finland and China

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Suvi Jokila
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Students ◽  
Study Abroad ◽  
International Student ◽  
Recruitment Strategies ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
International Student Recruitment ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Private Actors ◽  
Different Sources

The recruitment of international students has become a global phenomenon. Prospective candidates planning to study abroad rely on different sources of information in their decision-making processes, provided by different national, institutional and private actors. Thus, more analysis of the mediators facilitating this encounter of recruiters and students is needed. This study analyses how study choices in Finland and China are constructed by analysing the embeddedness of national recruitment strategies in websites, the construction of study choices as capitals and the trust-building devices (dispositifs) employed in the websites. Data consist of textual material from four websites representing educational offerings in Finland and China, targeted for international students searching for information in their study-abroad decision-making. This study puts forward three arguments. First, the analysed websites reflect the national strategies on the recruitment of international students; however, the approaches the websites use vary greatly. Second, websites construct expectations that build on a holistic study-abroad experience. Third, non-governmental websites employ commercially oriented dispositifs to distinguish or affirm choices.

scholarly journals The Birth of the CrowdLaw Movement: Tech-Based Citizen Participation, Legitimacy and the Quality of Lawmaking

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 337-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victòria Alsina ◽  
José Luis Martí
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Exact Role ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
Public Decision ◽  
Public Decision Making

Abstract One of the most urgent debates of our time is about the exact role that new technologies can and should play in our societies and particularly in our public decision-making processes. This paper is a first attempt to introduce the idea of CrowdLaw, defined as online public participation leveraging new technologies to tap into diverse sources of information, judgments and expertise at each stage of the law and policymaking cycle to improve the quality as well as the legitimacy of the resulting laws and policies. First, we explain why CrowdLaw differs from many previous forms of political participation. Second,we reproduce and explain the CrowdLaw Manifesto that the rising CrowdLaw community has elaborated to foster such approaches around the world. Lastly, we introduce some preliminary considerations on the notions of justice, legitimacy and quality of lawmaking and public decision-making, which are central to the idea of CrowdLaw.

scholarly journals OR/MS research perspectives in disaster operations management: a literature review

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Lamos Díaz ◽  
Karin Aguilar Imitola ◽  
Rolando José Acosta Amado
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Operations Management ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Economic Resources ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Research Perspectives ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Disaster Scenario ◽  
Adequate Management

The unexpectedness of natural disasters makes handling their impacts on the population, the environment and the economic resources a challenging decision-making process that must be wisely performed in a very short period of time.  The process involves the allocation of scarce resources to deliver aid and relief to the affected population in order to minimize the consequences of the event. An adequate management of operations to disaster response is challenging for decision makers and it has become a topic of significant relevance on a worldwide basis. As a result, academics and practitioners in the field of OR/MS have increased their interest in developing tools to support the decision-making processes on a disaster scenario.  This paper surveys the OR/MS literature to identify new trends of increasing interest in disaster operations management (DOM) that have emerged in the last five years. A discussion on the gaps that have been successfully addressed in the last five years and those that remain opened is also presented.

scholarly journals Twenty Challenges in Incident Planning

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Marios Karagiannis ◽  
Costas Synolakis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Time Constraints ◽  
Interagency Coordination ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Intuitive Decision Making ◽  
Crisis Managers

Abstract Disasters create overwhelming demands to affected communities and pose unique problems that complicate efforts of orchestrating the response. It is in such environments of uncertainty, operational friction, time-constraints and the need for interagency coordination that disaster and crisis managers are required to develop incident plans to address multiple demands. Based on observations from 50 disaster exercises, we have identified twenty critical points in incident planning, that is, those incident planning activities which are most challenging for emergency managers, are poorly implemented or otherwise constitute an area for improvement. The most challenging components of the incident planning process were information gathering from the field, running estimates of the situation, response-generated demands, resource capabilities and mobilization time, course of action development and analysis, and decision-making under uncertainty. In addition, this study identified three good practices in incident planning. First, the process is iterative and planners revisit several steps in a back-and-forth fashion. Second, both rational and intuitive decision-making processes are likely to be used during the course of any one incident, based on the time available for planning. Third, better plans are produced when flexibility is built into courses of action to address expected developments of situation or when decision-making is decentralized.

scholarly journals A Decision-making Framework for Vegetated Roofing System Selection

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 138-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J Grant ◽  
James R Jones
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Green Roof ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Explicit Method ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
System Selection ◽  
Selection Of

Design frequently involves making tradeoffs to obtain the “optimal” solution to a design problem, often using intuition or past experience as a guide. Since vegetated roofing is a relatively complex and comparatively new technology to many practitioners, a rational, explicit method to help organize and rank the tradeoffs made during the design process is needed. This research comprises the creation of a framework diagramming the decision process involved in the selection of vegetated roofing systems. Through literature review, case studies and interviews with experts, the available knowledge is captured and organized to determine the critical parameters affecting design decisions. Six important evaluative categories are identified and parameters within these categories are addressed in the context of a decision support system for green roof designers. A summation of the total importance of the advantages represented by each alternative is used to determine the most feasible green roof system for a particular project. The framework is demonstrated and compared with green roof designers' decision-making processes and conclusions are drawn regarding its effectiveness.

Dispatch Decision Making in an Air Medical Transport System

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 259-263
Author(s):  
Wayne C.W. Giang ◽  
Lavinia Hui ◽  
Birsen Donmez ◽  
Mahvareh Ahghari ◽  
Russell D. MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Situation Awareness ◽  
Time Pressure ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Patient Transfers ◽  
Land Vehicles ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Medical Transport

Air medical transport relies on effective dispatching of air and land vehicles to provide the fastest and best care possible for patient transfers. These difficult dispatch decisions are characterized by high time pressure, uncertainty, and the dynamic and complex environment of medical transportation. This paper describes a preliminary study of the decision making processes that occur during dispatch decisions at Ornge, the air medical transportation system in Ontario, Canada. We drew upon the Critical Decision Method and the structured data analysis approach to understand the major decision points faced by Ornge’s dispatchers, and the cues and sources of information attended to in those situations. We found that the decision points deal with three main goals: maintain situation awareness, match resource to transfer, and plan logistics of transfer. Furthermore, we found that time estimation might play an important role in helping dispatchers coordinate within the dispatch team and with their external partners. These findings may help improve the design of computer aided dispatch software to better support the goals of the dispatchers.

Decision Making, Morality, and Machiavellianism: The Role of Dispositional Traits in Gist Extraction

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica R. Carre ◽  
Daniel N. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Concern For Others ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
New Framework

Fuzzy Trace Theory (FTT) is a promising new framework for evaluating decision making processes related to risk. In brief, FTT argues that individuals use either a mature and meaningful process (i.e., “gist”) or a cold and numbers-based process (i.e., “verbatim”) when making a decision based on information. However, the fundamental meaning that one may extract from a set of information may depend entirely on the motivations, values, and personality of the individual. We argue that in the case of Machiavellianism, individuals may be using gist-based processes, much like others, but arrive at vastly different conclusions with respect to the best course of action. This assertion is based on the fact that Machiavellian individuals lack the fundamental morality and empathy necessary to have concern for others when making decisions. Thus, we outline a theoretical argument as to when gist based extraction may be altered by individual differences. We further discuss the practical implications that individual differences have for decision making through the lens of FTT.

System Dynamics Modeling of the Time Course of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Patterson ◽  
Lisa Fournier ◽  
Byron J. Pierce ◽  
Marc D. Winterbottom ◽  
Lisa M. Tripp
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Time Course ◽  
System Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Benefits And Costs

Two types of decision-making processes have been identified in the literature: an analytical process and an intuitive process. One conceptual model of the latter is the recognition-primed decision (RPD) model (e.g., Klein, 2008). According to this model, decision making in naturalistic contexts entails a situational pattern-recognition process that, if subsequent expectancies are confirmed, leads the decision maker to render a decision to engage in a given course of action. In this paper, we describe a system dynamics model of Klein's RPD framework that focuses upon the dynamics of the decision-making process. The structure of our RPD model is based on a model of a set of laboratory phenomena called conjunction benefits and costs (e.g., L. R. Fournier, Patterson, Dyre, Wiediger, & Winters, 2007), which was extended to encompass the RPD framework. The results of our simulations suggest that decision priming (a bias toward rendering a given decision based on prior information) is a phenomenon that should occur in many naturalistic settings.

scholarly journals Use of methods for decision-making support in anti-terrorism operations

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Jozef Wesselényi ◽  
Jaroslav Kompan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Member States ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Military Planning ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Military ◽  
Decision Making Support

USE OF METHODS FOR DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT IN ANTI-TERRORISM OPERATIONSThere are not any predefined common military planning processes of military antiterrorism operations at the tactical level within NATO member states. Each country defines its own planning and decision making processes mainly based on the allied publications AJP-5 and COPD. Despite the fact that each country phases the military planning process according to its own procedures and also names each phase differently, there is almost the same background philosophy. Strict definition combined with simpler phases alternation of more complicated tasks with simpler tasks of the military planning process within NATO member states will speed up the military planning process. This thesis describes the military planning process, its tools and common methods used during the decision making process with the main emphasis on the evaluation of the current status. The main goal of this thesis is to propose a new method for the Matrix of Criteria, its test by experiment and integration and incorporation into common military processes. Also, the goal of this thesis is to use this Matrix of Criteria during the military planning process, especially during the course of action comparison, evaluation, and approval step which will make this step simpler and also will focus the attention and the effort of each evaluator staff officer closer to their professional military branch.

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