The Integration of the Evidence-Based Framework and Military Judgment and Decision-Making

This article is the second in a four-part series that discusses the integration of evidence-based framework and military judgment and decision-making (MJDM). The series is written as a conceptualization and implementation of the presidential memorandum on restoring faith in government dated 27 January 2021. The focus of the series is on integrating the evidence-based framework into defense planning and decision-making as an operational art. The series frames this integration in terms of basing decisions on the best evidence in four categories: subject matter expertise, stakeholder input, organizational data, and scholarship. It also recognizes that scholarship is the single component within the evidence-based framework not currently integrated into military planning.

COVID-19: On the Disparity in Outcomes Between Military and Civilian Populations

ABSTRACT Introduction The CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains a formidable threat to populations around the world. The U.S. Military, in particular, represents a unique and distinguishable subset of the population, primarily due to the age and gender of active duty personnel. Current investigations have focused on health outcome forecasts for civilian populations, making them of limited value for military planning. Materials and Methods We have developed and applied an age-structured susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, or dead compartmental model for both civilian and military populations, driven by estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number, R(t), which can be both fit to available data and also forecast future cases, intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and deaths. Results We show that the expected health outcomes for active duty military populations are substantially different than for civilian populations of the same size. Specifically, while the number of cases is not expected to differ dramatically, severity, both in terms of ICU burdens and deaths, is substantially lower. Conclusions Our results confirm that the burden placed on military health centers will be substantially lower than that for equivalent-sized civilian populations. More practically, the tool we have developed to investigate this (https://q.predsci.com/covid19/) can be used by military health planners to estimate the resources needed in particular locations based on current estimates of the transmission profiles of COVID-19 within the surrounding civilian population in which the military installation is embedded. As this tool continues to be developed, it can be used to assess the likely impact of different intervention strategies, as well as vaccine policies; both for the current pandemic as well as future ones.

Russia and post-Netanyahu Israel will seek continuity

Significance Both countries have worked to mitigate the inherent contradictions and risks of escalation. The Kremlin is seeking more influence in the Middle East, and Israel will have to decide how to accommodate itself to this. Impacts Opaque commentary will help both sides gloss over fundamental differences regarding Israeli air strikes in Syria. Israel can live with Russia's aim of a long-term military presence in Syria. Israel will keep a close eye on Russia's military planning: its upgraded Syrian air base can now host bombers with Mediterranean-wide reach.

Exploring Evidence-Based Management in Military Planning Processes as a Critically Appraised Topic

This study uses a critically appraised topic (CAT) to explore the potential of integrating evidence-based management (EBMgt) and military judgment and decision-making (MJDM). The study uses the five focus areas of the Commandant’s Planning Guidance: 38th Commandant of the Marine Corps to search scholarly databases such as the ABI/INFORM Collection from ProQuest and Business Source Premier from EBSCO. The search process was conducted using a research question variable synthesis (RQVS), introduced specifically for this study by the author. The RQVS applied to each of the Commandant’s five priority focus areas in separate inquiries, producing five separate data sets. The RQVS is a search enhancement methodology developed by the author. This methodology improves the linkage between the search process and the research question (RQ) and enhances rigor and transparency of the overall study. The key findings are that there is sufficient scholarship to address problem areas in each of the Commandant’s five priority focus areas. This study demonstrates that an integration of EBMgt and MJDM is both feasible and pragmatic.

Resources Package Modelling Supporting Border Surveillance Operations

The purpose of this work is to propose a military planning tool capable of providing logistical bases and patrol packages to most effectively support border surveillance. Presently, military patrols are employed along geographical borders to combat transnational crimes; acts such as drug trafficking, smuggling of goods and illegal natural resources exploitation. The patrols make temporary stops within specific time windows at specific places characterised by a high incidence of crime (hotspots). These hotspots have different criticalities within given time windows. To optimise the results, the proposed model allows additional stops in more critical hotspots. It achieves this using a mathematical optimisation model. Considering that there are not adequate logistical-military capacities (logistical bases and patrols) at all needed locations, developing a border surveillance plan that optimises resource use is imperative. The model was run using black hole-based optimisation and a real patrol mission’s database to ensure timely solutions. The solutions were then evaluated in terms of quality (number of bases and patrols, coverage efforts, and travel time) and computational processing time. Next, they were compared with solutions using the traditional method, thereby demonstrating the model’s robustness in providing timely surveillance schemes that ensure high coverage with minimum resources.

Coupling levels of abstraction in understanding meaningful human control of autonomous weapons: a two-tiered approach

The international debate on the ethics and legality of autonomous weapon systems (AWS), along with the call for a ban, primarily focus on the nebulous concept of fully autonomous AWS. These are AWS capable of target selection and engagement absent human supervision or control. This paper argues that such a conception of autonomy is divorced from both military planning and decision-making operations; it also ignores the design requirements that govern AWS engineering and the subsequent tracking and tracing of moral responsibility. To show how military operations can be coupled with design ethics, this paper marries two different kinds of meaningful human control (MHC) termed levels of abstraction. Under this two-tiered understanding of MHC, the contentious notion of ‘full’ autonomy becomes unproblematic.

FOUND: A DEFINITION OF INTELLIGENCE

Intelligence has come to play a pivotal role in the affairs of states and non-state actors in the 21st century. It not only determines the outcome of conflict when it breaks out but also provides critical edge and foresight in military planning and engagements. However, the effective utilization and deployment of intelligence in any strategic environment may be hampered by the lack of a holistic and generally accepted definition of it. The search for a robust definition has not also been helped by the differing views on what should constitute the basic elements of it. To overcome these challenges, this work argues for and provides a holistic definition of intelligence. It uses both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to provide a more robust and holistic definition of intelligence. The work concludes that any acceptable definition of intelligence must contain five key elements: process, data, actionable information, political group and security.

Optimization in Military Planning

In recent years, advancing technology has introduced a wide range of resources for military forces. This rapid improvement in the number and types of military resources also led to difficulties in the management of resource allocation issues in combat missions. The general resource allocation problem can be defined as determining the optimal sequence of resource usage allocations while maximizing the kills on the enemy's forces or minimizing casualties. In this chapter, the authors investigate the resource allocation problems and solution approaches observed in planning military missions. Theoretical background information and some examples based on real-time data are provided to illustrate the chosen problem types.