scholarly journals Multiscale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Events in the Gomati River Basin, India

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 480
Author(s):  
AVS Kalyan ◽  
Dillip Kumar Ghose ◽  
Rahul Thalagapu ◽  
Ravi Kumar Guntu ◽  
Ankit Agarwal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Spectrum ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Gomati River

Accelerating climate change is causing considerable changes in extreme events, leading to immense socioeconomic loss of life and property. In this study, we investigate the characteristics of extreme climate events at a regional scale to -understand these events’ propagation in the near future. We have considered sixteen extreme climate indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from a long-term dataset (1951–2018) of 53 locations in Gomati River Basin, North India. We computed the present and future spatial variation of theses indices using the Sen’s slope estimator and Hurst exponent analysis. The periodicities and non-stationary features were estimated using the continuous wavelet transform. Bivariate copulas were fitted to estimate the joint probabilities and return periods for certain combinations of indices. The study results show different variation in the patterns of the extreme climate indices: D95P, R95TOT, RX5D, and RX showed negative trends for all stations over the basin. The number of dry days (DD) showed positive trends over the basin at 36 stations out of those 17 stations are statistically significant. A sustainable decreasing trend is observed for D95P at all stations, indicating a reduction in precipitation in the future. DD exhibits a sustainable decreasing trend at almost all the stations over the basin barring a few exceptions highlight that the basin is turning drier. The wavelet power spectrum for D95P showed significant power distributed across the 2–16-year bands, and the two-year period was dominant in the global power spectrum around 1970–1990. One interesting finding is that a dominant two-year period in D95P has changed to the four years after 1984 and remains in the past two decades. The joint return period’s resulting values are more significant than values resulting from univariate analysis (R95TOT with 44% and RTWD of 1450 mm). The difference in values highlights that ignoring the mutual dependence can lead to an underestimation of extremes.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Okafor ◽  
Kingsley N. Ogbu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

scholarly journals Expected changes in water resources availability and water quality with respect to climate change in the Elbe River basin (Germany)

2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 321-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Krysanova ◽  
Fred Hattermann ◽  
Anja Habeck
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Elbe River ◽  
Elbe River Basin ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Elbe River

Reliable modelling of climate–water interactions at the river basin and regional scale requires development of advanced modelling approaches at scales relevant for assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. These approaches should represent the atmospheric, surface and subsurface hydrological processes and take into account their characteristic temporal and spatial scales of occurrence. The paper presents a climate change impact assessment performed for the Elbe River basin in Germany (about 100 000 km2). The method used for the study combines: (a) a statistical downscaling method driven by GCM-predicted temperature trend for producing climate scenarios, and (b) a simulation technique based on an ecohydrological semi-distributed river basin model, which was thoroughly validated in advance. The overall result of the climate impact study for the basin is that the mean water discharge and the mean groundwater recharge in the Elbe basin will be most likely decreased under the expected climate change and diffuse source pollution will be diminished. Our study confirms that the uncertainty in hydrological and water quality responses to changing climate is generally higher than the uncertainty in climate input. The method is transferable to other basins in the temperate zone.

Characterization of extreme meteo-hydrological events in the Alpine Region: historical picture and future scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pesce ◽  
Larisa Tarasova ◽  
Ralf Merz ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Alberto Viglione
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Alpine Region ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
River Flood

<p>In the European Alps, climate change has determined changes in extreme precipitation and river flood events, which impact the population living downstream with increasing frequency. The objectives of our work are:</p><ol><li>to determine what types of precipitation extremes and river flood events occur in the Alpine Region, based on their generating mechanisms (e.g., frontal convergence storms, convective storms, snow-melt floods, rain-on-snow floods, short and long rain floods, flash floods, ...)</li> <li>to determine the spatial and seasonal distribution of these event types (e.g., their dependence on elevation, geographical location, catchment size, ...) and how precipitation extremes relate to the floods they produce (e.g., the role of snow precipitation and accumulation)</li> <li>to determine whether the event type distribution is changing and will change in the future (e.g., due to climate change).  </li> </ol><p>To these aims, we will compile and analyze historical time series of precipitation and discharge in order to identify events in terms of intensity, duration, and spatial extent. We will use the ETCCDI indices as a measure of the precipitation distribution and hydrograph separation techniques for flow events, following the methodology of Tarasova et al. (2018). We will then characterize each event in terms of generation mechanisms. Furthermore, we will analyze the frequency and magnitude of the different event types in different locations and time of the year and determine whether clusters exist by applying automatic techniques (e.g. K-means clustering algorithm). Finally, we will correlate statistics of precipitation and flood event types with climate indices related to large scale atmospheric circulation, such as Atmospheric Blocking, NAO, etc. (Ciccarelli et al. 2008). Results will be then used for the projection of future storm and flood scenarios.</p><p>We will first apply the methodology in Piedmont by comparing the station-based time series with the NWIOI dataset (ARPA Piemonte) and reanalysis datasets by ECMWF (ERA5, ERA5-Land). We will use a rainfall-runoff model at the daily and sub-daily timescale, through calibration at the regional scale, useful for the simulation of soil saturation and snowpack. We expect to find a statistical correlation between the different datasets, but with changing statistical features over space and time within the single datasets. We aim to provide a detailed picture of the different types of events according to the spatial location and season. The results will be useful, from a scientific perspective, to better understand storm and flood regimes and their change in the Alpine Region, and, from a practical perspective, to better mitigate the risk associated with the occurrence of extreme events.      </p><p>Ciccarelli, N., Von Hardenberg, J., Provenzale, A., Ronchi, C., Vargiu, A., & Pelosini, R. (2008). Climate variability in north-western Italy during the second half of the 20th century. Global and Planetary Change, 63(2-3), 185-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.006</p><p>Tarasova, L., Basso, S., Zink, M., & Merz, R. (2018). Exploring controls on rainfall-runoff events: 1. Time series-based event separation and temporal dynamics of event runoff response in Germany. Water Resources Research, 54, 7711–7732. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022587</p>

Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran

2016 ◽  
Vol 130 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1007-1020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narges Zohrabi ◽  
Elahe Goodarzi ◽  
Alireza Massah Bavani ◽  
Husain Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The West ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Karkheh River Basin

The effects of projected climate change and extreme climate on maize and rice in the Yangtze River Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 282-283 ◽  
pp. 107867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinxin Chen ◽  
Lunche Wang ◽  
Zigeng Niu ◽  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Chang'an Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
The Yangtze River Basin

Regional Climate Evolution in Yangtze River Basin and Three Gorges Reservoir

2013 ◽  
Vol 864-867 ◽  
pp. 2725-2731
Author(s):  
Shu Hua Yin ◽  
Yan Liang Du ◽  
Yu Chun Wang ◽  
Huai Dong Zhou ◽  
Bo Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Three Gorges Reservoir ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
Climate Evolution

Under the background of global climate change, the relationship of the construction of large reservoirs and the regional climate change became one of the hot research topics. Some researchers put forward the theory that the large reservoirs possibly emit considerable green house air, which might affect the regional climate. Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is one of large reservoirs in China, and its impacts on local climate are studied in this paper. The large scale long time series of hydrological and meteorological data in 1961~2008 is used to analyze the trend of the air temperature, precipitation, evaporation rate, rainstorm days, fog days, et. all in Yangtze River Basin and TGR area before and after the impoundment of TGR. The paper reveals that the consistency and specificity of the climate evolution in regional scale and country scale. In addition, the internal driving forces for the regional ecological environmental evolution are discussed.

scholarly journals Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuejia Wang ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Guojin Pang ◽  
Xiaohua Gou ◽  
Meixue Yang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

AbstractDespite the importance of the Yellow River to China, climate change for the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has been investigated far less than for other regions. This work focuses on future changes in mean and extreme climate of the YRB for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and far-term (2081–2100) future, and assesses these with respect to the reference period (1986–2005) using the latest REgional MOdel (REMO) simulations, driven by three global climate models (GCMs) and assuming historical and future [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5] forcing scenarios, over the CORDEX East Asia domain at 0.22° horizontal resolution. The results show that REMO reproduces the historical mean climate state and selected extreme climate indices reasonably well, although some cold and wet biases exist. Increases in mean temperature are strongest for the far-term in winter, with an average increase of 5.6 °C under RCP 8.5. As expected, the future temperatures of the warmest day (TXx) and coldest night (TNn) increase and the number of frost days (FD) declines considerably. Changes to mean temperature and FD depend on elevation, which could be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. A substantial increase in precipitation (34%) occurs in winter under RCP 8.5 for the far-term. Interannual variability in precipitation is projected to increase, indicating a future climate with more extreme events compared to that of today. Future daily precipitation intensity and maximum 5-day precipitation would increase and the number of consecutive dry days would decline under RCP 8.5. The results highlight that pronounced warming at high altitudes and more intense rainfall could cause increased future flood risk in the YRB, if a high GHG emission pathway is realized.

scholarly journals Comparative assessment of extreme climate variability and human activities on regional hydrologic droughts in the Weihe River basin, North China

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 141-146
Author(s):  
H. Shen ◽  
L. Ren ◽  
F. Yuan ◽  
X. Yang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Weihe River ◽  
Weihe River Basin

Abstract. Drought is a comprehensive phenomenon not only resulting from precipitation deficits and climatic factors, but also being related to terrestrial hydrologic conditions and human activities. This paper investigated the relationships among regional hydrologic drought, climate extremes and human activities in the Weihe River basin, northwest China, where is also called Guanzhong Plain. First, the study period was divided into baseline and variation period according to the runoff trend analysis. Subsequently, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model was applied to reconstruct the natural runoff series in variation period. Furthermore, the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff were separated by the modelling results. Finally, standardized runoff index (SRI) and extreme climate indices were generated to quantatively assess the relationships among hydrologic droughts, climate extremes and human activity impacts. The results indicated that human activity impacts is a remarkable source of runoff reduction and represented an in-phase pattern of SRI-based drought severity and warm days. It also showed that the SRI-based floods and droughts characteristics are in good correlation with extreme precipitation.

scholarly journals Trends in Extreme Climate Indices in Cherrapunji for the period 1979 to 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raju Kalita ◽  
Dipangkar Kalita ◽  
Atul Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Extreme Climate

Abstract We have used Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator method to find out significant changes in extreme climate indices for daily temperature as well as precipitation over the period 1979 to 2020 in Cherrapunji. In the present study, a total of 24 precipitation and temperature based extreme climate indices were calculated using RClimDex v 1.9-3. Among 24 indices, 7 were derived from number of days above nn mm rainfall (Rnn) according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) convention and the rest were in accordance with the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). It was observed that, among all the indices, consecutive dry days (CDD), summer days (SU25) and very light rainfall (VLR) days increased significantly with 0.54, 1.58 and 0.14 days/year respectively, while only consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased significantly with 0.36 days/year. A slight negative trend was also observed in case of tropical nights (TR20) and among the other precipitation indices as well. Again, the indices associated with daily maximum temperature increased significantly with annual change of 0.06 to 0.07 ⁰C/year. And for indices associated with daily minimum temperature, almost no change or a slight negative change was observed, except a significant positive trend in February and significant negative trend in November for TNN only. The analysis reveals that some of the extreme climate indices which explains the climatic conditions of Cherrapunji has changed a lot over the period of 42 years and if this trend continues then Cherrapunji will be under threat when it comes to climate change.

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