scholarly journals Subseasonal Forecasts of the Northern Queensland Floods of February 2019: Causes and Forecast Evaluation

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 758
Author(s):  
Wayne Yuan-Huai Tsai ◽  
Mong-Ming Lu ◽  
Chung-Hsiung Sui ◽  
Yin-Min Cho
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Monsoon Depression ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Percentile Rank ◽  
Extended Range

During the austral summer 2018/19, devastating floods occurred over northeast Australia that killed approximately 625,000 head of cattle and inundated over 3000 homes in Townsville. In this paper, the disastrous event was identified as a record-breaking subseasonal peak rainfall event (SPRE). The SPRE was mainly induced by an anomalously strong monsoon depression that was modulated by the convective phases of an MJO and an equatorial Rossby (ER) wave. The ER wave originated from an active equatorial deep convection associated with the El Niño warm sea surface temperatures near the dateline over the central Pacific. Based on the S2S Project Database, we analyzed the extended-range forecast skill of the SPRE from two different perspectives, the monsoon depression represented by an 850-hPa wind shear index and the 15-day accumulated precipitation characterized by the percentile rank (PR) and the ratio to the three-month seasonal (DJF) totals. The results of four S2S models of this study suggest that the monsoon depression can maintain the same level of skill as the short-range (3 days) forecast up to 8–10 days. For precipitation parameters, the conclusions are similar to the monsoon depression. For the 2019 northern Queensland SPRE, the model forecast was, in general, worse than the expectation derived from the hindcast analysis. The clear modulation of the ER wave that enhanced the SPRE monsoon depression circulation and precipitation is suspected as the main cause for the lower forecast skill. The analysis procedure proposed in this study can be applied to analyze the SPREs and their associated large-scale drivers in other regions.

An Evaluation of the Proposed Mechanism of the Adaptive Infrared Iris Hypothesis Using TRMM VIRS and PR Measurements

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 4185-4194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita D. Rapp ◽  
Christian Kummerow ◽  
Wesley Berg ◽  
Brian Griffith
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Convective Cloud ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Surface Rainfall

Abstract Significant controversy surrounds the adaptive infrared iris hypothesis put forth by Lindzen et al., whereby tropical anvil cirrus detrainment is hypothesized to decrease with increasing sea surface temperature (SST). This dependence would act as an iris, allowing more infrared radiation to escape into space and inhibiting changes in the surface temperature. This hypothesis assumes that increased precipitation efficiency in regions of higher sea surface temperatures will reduce cirrus detrainment. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements are used here to investigate the adaptive infrared iris hypothesis. Pixel-level Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) 10.8-μm brightness temperature data and precipitation radar (PR) rain-rate data from TRMM are collocated and matched to determine individual convective cloud boundaries. Each cloudy pixel is then matched to the underlying SST. This study examines single- and multicore convective clouds separately to directly determine if a relationship exists between the size of convective clouds, their precipitation, and the underlying SSTs. In doing so, this study addresses some of the criticisms of the Lindzen et al. study by eliminating their more controversial method of relating bulk changes of cloud amount and SST across a large domain in the Tropics. The current analysis does not show any significant SST dependence of the ratio of cloud area to surface rainfall for deep convection in the tropical western and central Pacific. Results do, however, suggest that SST plays an important role in the ratio of cloud area and surface rainfall for warm rain processes. For clouds with brightness temperatures between 270 and 280 K, a net decrease in cloud area normalized by rainfall of 5% per degree SST was found.

scholarly journals Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8181-8195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo J. Bombardi ◽  
Laurie Trenary ◽  
Kathy Pegion ◽  
Benjamin Cash ◽  
Timothy DelSole ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Temporal Scales

The seasonal predictability of austral summer rainfall is evaluated in a set of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) performed as part of the Minerva and Metis projects. Both projects use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). The Minerva runs consist of three sets of hindcasts where the spatial resolution of the model’s atmospheric component is progressively increased while keeping the spatial resolution of its oceanic component constant. In the Metis runs, the spatial resolution of both the atmospheric and oceanic components are progressively increased. We find that raw model predictions show seasonal forecast skill for rainfall over northern and southeastern South America. However, predictability is difficult to detect on a local basis, but it can be detected on a large-scale pattern basis. In addition, increasing horizontal resolution does not lead to improvements in the forecast skill of rainfall over South America. A predictable component analysis shows that only the first predictable component of austral summer precipitation has forecast skill, and the source of forecast skill is El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Seasonal prediction of precipitation remains a challenge for state-of-the-art climate models. Positive benefits of increasing model resolution might be more evident in other atmospheric fields (i.e., temperature or geopotential height) and/or temporal scales (i.e., subseasonal temporal scales).

Large-Scale Forcing by Sea Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric B. Kraus ◽  
Joost A. Businger
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Mechanical Energy ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Thermal Inertia ◽  
Skewed Distribution ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Surface Buoyancy

This chapter deals with convective fluxes of sensible heat, moisture, and salinity that originate at the sea surface. In Section 8.1 we consider the relative influence of oceanic and atmospheric variability upon these fluxes. The general character of deep convection and its occurrence in the polar oceans is discussed in Section 8.2. The case of deep convection over the ocean in the tropical atmosphere, which is somewhat more complicated because of compressibility and cloud formation, is discussed in Section 8.3. Finally, in Section 8.4, we consider some of the long-term ocean-atmosphere feedback processes. Kinetic energy in the atmosphere-ocean system is derived mainly from an upward flux of buoyancy. The resulting redistribution of mass reduces available potential energy APE and lowers the centre of gravity. In turn, APE is generated, primarily by non-adiabatic processes: unequal absorption and emission of radiation; local release of latent heat in the atmosphere; local salinity changes in the ocean; and unequal heat conduction from the boundaries. The total mass of the oceans is about 280 times that of the atmosphere; their heat capacity is nearly 1200 times larger. Oceanic response times to external forcing are correspondingly slower. Although the annual irradiation cycle affects only a small part of the water mass, the thermal inertia is strong enough to prevent large or fast temperature variations. It is well known that this has a dominant influence on the whole terrestrial climate. This influence is particularly strong in the marine temperate regions. Figure 5.10 showed that even the daily temperature changes of the surface waters are smaller than those in the air. By virtue of their mechanical and thermal inertia, the oceans tend to play the role of a flywheel in the air-sea system. The atmosphere is the more volatile and more variable partner. It supplies mechanical energy to the oceans at a rate that has a very skewed distribution in space and time because the work of the wind stress is proportional to the third power of the windspeed. This creates a strong bias in favour of restricted stormy areas.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OCEANOGRAPHIC MODELING AND OBSERVATION NETWORK (REMO) FOR PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY STUDIES AND OCEAN FORECASTING

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Antonio Moreira Lima
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Height Anomaly ◽  
The North ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Ocean Forecasting

This paper is concerned with the planning, implementation and some results of the Oceanographic Modeling and Observation Network, named REMO, for Brazilian regional waters. Ocean forecasting has been an important scientific issue over the last decade due to studies related to climate change as well as applications related to short-range oceanic forecasts. The South Atlantic Ocean has a deficit of oceanographic measurements when compared to other ocean basins such as the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean. It is a challenge to design an ocean forecasting system for a region with poor observational coverage of in-situ data. Fortunately, most ocean forecasting systems heavily rely on the assimilation of surface fields such as sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) or sea surface temperature (SST), acquired by environmental satellites, that can accurately provide information that constrain major surface current systems and their mesoscale activity. An integrated approach is proposed here in which the large scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is modeled in a first step, and gradually nested into higher resolution regional models that are able to resolve important processes such as the Brazil Current and associated mesoscale variability, continental shelf waves, local and remote wind forcing, and others. This article presents the overall strategy to develop the models using a network of Brazilian institutions and their related expertise along with international collaboration. This work has some similarity with goals of the international project Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment OceanView (GODAE OceanView).

scholarly journals Mesoscale Features Associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 2006-2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Shang Lee ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jenny S. N. Hui ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Synoptic Patterns ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999–2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level wind flow and surge direction, the formation cases are classified into six synoptic patterns: easterly wave (EW), northeasterly flow (NE), coexistence of northeasterly and southwesterly flow (NE–SW), southwesterly flow (SW), monsoon confluence (MC), and monsoon shear (MS). Then the general convection characteristics and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activities associated with these formation cases are studied under this classification scheme. Convection processes in the EW cases are distinguished from the monsoon-related formations in that the convection is less deep and closer to the formation center. Five characteristic temporal evolutions of the deep convection are identified: (i) single convection event, (ii) two convection events, (iii) three convection events, (iv) gradual decrease in TB, and (v) fluctuating TB, or a slight increase in TB before formation. Although no dominant temporal evolution differentiates cases in the six synoptic patterns, evolutions ii and iii seem to be the common routes taken by the monsoon-related formations. The overall percentage of cases with MCS activity at multiple times is 63%, and in 35% of cases more than one MCS coexisted. Most of the MC and MS cases develop multiple MCSs that lead to several episodes of deep convection. These two patterns have the highest percentage of coexisting MCSs such that potential interaction between these systems may play a role in the formation process. The MCSs in the monsoon-related formations are distributed around the center, except in the NE–SW cases in which clustering of MCSs is found about 100–200 km east of the center during the 12 h before formation. On average only one MCS occurs during an EW formation, whereas the mean value is around two for the other monsoon-related patterns. Both the mean lifetime and time of first appearance of MCS in EW are much shorter than those developed in other synoptic patterns, which indicates that the overall formation evolution in the EW case is faster. Moreover, this MCS is most likely to be found within 100 km east of the center 12 h before formation. The implications of these results to internal mechanisms of tropical cyclone formation are discussed in light of other recent mesoscale studies.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Labrador Sea Deep Convection: New Insights from a Case Study of the 2006/07 and 2007/08 Winters

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (14) ◽  
pp. 5281-5297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Who M. Kim ◽  
Stephen Yeager ◽  
Ping Chang ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Circulation Anomaly ◽  
La Nina

Abstract Deep convection in the Labrador Sea (LS) resumed in the winter of 2007/08 under a moderately positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. This is in sharp contrast with the previous winter with weak convection, despite a similar positive NAO state. This disparity is explored here by analyzing reanalysis data and forced-ocean simulations. It is found that the difference in deep convection is primarily due to differences in large-scale atmospheric conditions that are not accounted for by the conventional NAO definition. Specifically, the 2007/08 winter was characterized by an atmospheric circulation anomaly centered in the western North Atlantic, rather than the eastern North Atlantic that the conventional NAO emphasizes. This anomalous circulation was also accompanied by anomalously cold conditions over northern North America. The controlling influence of these atmospheric conditions on LS deep convection in the 2008 winter is confirmed by sensitivity experiments where surface forcing and/or initial conditions are modified. An extended analysis for the 1949–2009 period shows that about half of the winters with strong heat losses in the LS are associated with such a west-centered circulation anomaly and cold conditions over northern North America. These are found to be accompanied by La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific, suggesting that the atmospheric response to La Niña may have a strong influence on LS deep convection.

scholarly journals On interpreting studies of tracer transport by deep cumulus convection and its effects on atmospheric chemistry

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (20) ◽  
pp. 6037-6050 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Lawrence ◽  
M. Salzmann
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Transport ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Mass Fluxes ◽  
Split Treatment ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. Global chemistry-transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-GCMs (CGCMs) generally simulate vertical tracer transport by deep convection separately from the advective transport by the mean winds, even though a component of the mean transport, for instance in the Hadley and Walker cells, occurs in deep convective updrafts. This split treatment of vertical transport has various implications for CTM simulations. In particular, it has led to a misinterpretation of several sensitivity simulations in previous studies in which the parameterized convective transport of one or more tracers is neglected. We describe this issue in terms of simulated fluxes and fractions of these fluxes representing various physical and non-physical processes. We then show that there is a significant overlap between the convective and large-scale mean advective vertical air mass fluxes in the CTM MATCH, and discuss the implications which this has for interpreting previous and future sensitivity simulations, as well as briefly noting other related implications such as numerical diffusion.

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (13) ◽  
pp. 3279-3293 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Quan ◽  
M. Hoerling ◽  
J. Whitaker ◽  
G. Bates ◽  
T. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study the authors diagnose the sources for the contiguous U.S. seasonal forecast skill that are related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations using a combination of dynamical and empirical methods. The dynamical methods include ensemble simulations with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed monthly global SSTs from 1950 to 1999, and ensemble AGCM experiments forced by idealized SST anomalies. The empirical methods involve a suite of reductions of the AGCM simulations. These include uni- and multivariate regression models that encapsulate the simultaneous and one-season lag linear connections between seasonal mean tropical SST anomalies and U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature. Nearly all of the AGCM skill in U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature, arising from global SST influences, can be explained by a single degree of freedom in the tropical SST field—that associated with the linear atmospheric signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results support previous findings regarding the preeminence of ENSO as a U.S. skill source. The diagnostic methods used here exposed another skill source that appeared to be of non-ENSO origins. In late autumn, when the AGCM simulation skill of U.S. temperatures peaked in absolute value and in spatial coverage, the majority of that originated from SST variability in the subtropical west Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. Hindcast experiments were performed for 1950–99 that revealed most of the simulation skill of the U.S. seasonal climate to be recoverable at one-season lag. The skill attributable to the AGCMs was shown to achieve parity with that attributable to empirical models derived purely from observational data. The diagnostics promote the interpretation that only limited advances in U.S. seasonal prediction skill should be expected from methods seeking to capitalize on sea surface predictors alone, and that advances that may occur in future decades could be readily masked by inherent multidecadal fluctuations in skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere systems.

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