scholarly journals Predicting the Effects of Solar Storms on the Ionosphere Based on a Comparison of Real-Time Solar Wind Data with the Best-Fitting Historical Storm Event

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1684
Author(s):  
Erik Schmölter ◽  
Jens Berdermann
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Total Electron Content ◽  
Wind Data ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbances ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Solar Storm

This study presents a new modeling approach that aims for long time predictions (more than 12 h) of ionospheric disturbances driven by solar storm events. The proposed model shall run in an operational framework to deliver fast and precise localized warnings for these disturbances in the future. The solar wind data driven approach uses a data base of historical solar storm impacts covering two solar cycles to reconstruct future events and resulting ionospheric disturbances. The basic components of the model are presented and discussed in this study, and the strengths of the reconstruction based on historical events are presented by showing the good correlations for predicted and observed geomagnetic activity. Initial results on the ionospheric response are discussed for all historical events using global total electron content (GTEC) and in more detail using total electron content (TEC) maps for two specific case studies (including the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic storm during the 17 March 2015). Average root mean square error (RMSE) values of 3.90 and 5.21 TECU are calculated for these cases confirming good results for the current configuration of the model. Possible future improvements of the individual model parts, as well as the planned extensions and applications are discussed in detail.

scholarly journals RESPON TEC IONOSFER DI ATAS BANDUNG DAN MANADO TERKAIT FLARE SINAR-X MATAHARI KELAS M5.1 DAN M7.9 TAHUN 2015 (IONOSPHERIC TEC RESPONSE OVER BANDUNG DAN MANADO ASSOCIATED WITH M5.1 AND M7.9 CLASSES OF SOLAR FLARE XRAYS IN 2015)

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Sri Ekawati
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Solar Flare ◽  
Electron Density ◽  
Total Electron Content ◽  
Geomagnetic Latitude ◽  
Ionospheric Scintillation ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbances ◽  
X Rays ◽  
Total Electron

The solar flare is potential to cause sudden increase of the electron density in the ionosphere,particularly in D layer, known as Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SID). This increase of electron density occurs not only in the ionospheric D layer but also in the ionospheric E and F layers. Total Electron Content (TEC) measured by GPS is the total number of electrons from D to F layer. The aim of this research is to study the effect of solar flare x-rays, greater than M5 class in 2015, on ionospheric TEC over Bandung and Manado. This paper presents the preliminary result of ionospheric TEC response on solar flare occurrence over Indonesia. The ionospheric TEC data is derived from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) receiver at Bandung (-6.90o S;107.6o E geomagnetic latitude 16.54o S) and Manado (1.48o N; 124.85o E geomagnetic latitude 7.7o S). The solar x-rays flares classes analyzed where M5.1 on 10 March 2015 and M7.9 on 25 June 2015. Slant TEC (STEC) values where calculated to obtain Vertical TEC (VTEC) and the Differential of the VTEC (DVTEC) per PRN satellite for further analysis. The results showed that immediately after the flare, there where sudden enhancement of the VTEC and the DVTEC (over Bandung and Manado) at the same time. The time delay of ionospheric TEC response on M5.1 flare was approximately 2 minutes, then the VTEC increased by 0.5 TECU and the DVTEC rose sharply by 0.5 – 0.6 TECU/minutes. Moreover, the time delay after the M7.9 flare was approximately 11 minutes, then the VTEC increased by 1 TECU and the DVTEC rose sharply by 0.6 – 0.9 TECU/minutes. ABSTRAK Flare matahari berpotensi meningkatkan kerapatan elektron ionosfer secara mendadak, khususnya di lapisan D, yang dikenal sebagai Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SID). Peningkatan kerapatan elektron tersebut terjadi tidak hanya di lapisan D, tetapi juga di lapisan E dan F ionosfer. Total Electron Content (TEC) dari GPS merupakan jumlah banyaknya elektron total dari lapisan D sampai lapisan F. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui efek flare, yang lebih besar dari kelas M5 tahun 2015, terhadap TEC ionosfer di atas Bandung dan Manado. Makalah ini merupakan hasil awal dari respon TEC ionosfer terhadap fenomena flare di atas Indonesia. Data TEC ionosfer diperoleh dari penerima GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitor (GISTM) di Bandung (-6,90o S; 107,60o E lintang geomagnet 16,54o LS) dan Manado (1,48oLU;124,85oBT lintang geomagnet 7,7o LS) dikaitkan dengan kejadian flare kelas M5.1 pada tanggal 10 Maret 2015 dan kelas M7.9 pada tanggal 25 Juni 2015. Nilai Slant TEC (STEC) dihitung untuk memperoleh nilai Vertical TEC (VTEC), kemudian nilai Differential of VTEC (DVTEC) per PRN satelit diperoleh untuk analisis selanjutnya. Hasil menunjukkan segera setelah terjadi flare, terjadi peningkatan VTEC dan DVTEC (di atas Bandung dan Manado) secara mendadak pada waktu yang sama. Waktu tunda dari respon TEC ionosfer setelah terjadi flare M5.1 adalah sekitar 2 menit, kemudian VTEC meningkat sebesar 0,5 TECU dan DVTEC meningkat secara tajam sebesar 0,5 – 0,6 TECU/menit. Sedangkan, waktu tunda setelah terjadi flare M7.9 adalah 11 menit, kemudian VTEC meningkat sebesar 1 TECU dan DVTEC meningkat secara tajam sebesar 0,6 – 0,9 TECU/menit.

scholarly journals Isolated ionospheric disturbances as deduced from global GPS network

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. L. Afraimovich ◽  
E. I. Astafieva ◽  
S. V. Voyeikov
Keyword(s):  
Total Electron Content ◽  
Acoustic Waves ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Ionospheric Disturbances ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Radio Science ◽  
Acoustic Gravity Waves ◽  
Medium Scale

Abstract. We investigate an unusual class of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances of the nonwave type, isolated ionospheric disturbances (IIDs) that manifest themselves in total electron content (TEC) variations in the form of single aperiodic negative TEC disturbances of a duration of about 10min (the total electron content spikes, TECS). The data were obtained using the technology of global detection of ionospheric disturbances using measurements of TEC variations from a global network of receivers of the GPS. For the first time, we present the TECS morphology for 170 days in 1998–2001. The total number of TEC series, with a duration of each series of about 2.3h (2h18m), exceeded 850000. It was found that TECS are observed in no more than 1–2% of the total number of TEC series mainly in the nighttime in the spring and autumn periods. The TECS amplitude exceeds the mean value of the "background" TEC variation amplitude by a factor of 5–10 as a minimum. TECS represent a local phenomenon with a typical radius of spatial correlation not larger than 500km. The IID-induced TEC variations are similar in their amplitude, form and duration to the TEC response to shock-acoustic waves (SAW) generated during rocket launchings and earthquakes. However, the IID propagation velocity is less than the SAW velocity (800–1000m/s) and are most likely to correspond to the velocity of background medium-scale acoustic-gravity waves, on the order of 100–200m/s. Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric irregularities, instruments and techniques) - Radio science (ionospheric propagation)

scholarly journals Total electron content responses to HILDCAAs and geomagnetic storms over South America

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 1309-1326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Mara de Siqueira Negreti ◽  
Eurico Rodrigues de Paula ◽  
Claudia Maria Nicoli Candido
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
South America ◽  
Total Electron Content ◽  
Geomagnetic Storm ◽  
Electric Fields ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Time Variability ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Quiet Time ◽  
Total Electron

Abstract. Total electron content (TEC) is extensively used to monitor the ionospheric behavior under geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions. This subject is of greatest importance for space weather applications. Under disturbed conditions the two main sources of electric fields, which are responsible for changes in the plasma drifts and for current perturbations, are the short-lived prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs) and the longer-lasting ionospheric disturbance dynamo (DD) electric fields. Both mechanisms modulate the TEC around the globe and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) at low latitudes. In this work we computed vertical absolute TEC over the low latitude of South America. The analysis was performed considering HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet (AE) activity) events and geomagnetic storms. The characteristics of storm-time TEC and HILDCAA-associated TEC will be presented and discussed. For both case studies presented in this work (March and August 2013) the HILDCAA event follows a geomagnetic storm, and then a global scenario of geomagnetic disturbances will be discussed. Solar wind parameters, geomagnetic indices, O ∕ N2 ratios retrieved by GUVI instrument onboard the TIMED satellite and TEC observations will be analyzed and discussed. Data from the RBMC/IBGE (Brazil) and IGS GNSS networks were used to calculate TEC over South America. We show that a HILDCAA event may generate larger TEC differences compared to the TEC observed during the main phase of the precedent geomagnetic storm; thus, a HILDCAA event may be more effective for ionospheric response in comparison to moderate geomagnetic storms, considering the seasonal conditions. During the August HILDCAA event, TEC enhancements from  ∼  25 to 80 % (compared to quiet time) were observed. These enhancements are much higher than the quiet-time variability observed in the ionosphere. We show that ionosphere is quite sensitive to solar wind forcing and considering the events studied here, this was the most important source of ionospheric responses. Furthermore, the most important source of TEC changes were the long-lasting PPEFs observed on August 2013, during the HILDCAA event. The importance of this study relies on the peculiarity of the region analyzed characterized by high declination angle and ionospheric gradients which are responsible for creating a complex response during disturbed periods.

scholarly journals Ionospheric total electron content responses to HILDCAA intervals

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
Regia Pereira da Silva ◽  
Clezio Marcos Denardini ◽  
Manilo Soares Marques ◽  
Laysa Cristina Araujo Resende ◽  
Juliano Moro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Total Electron Content ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Direct Relation ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Ionospheric Total Electron Content ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Wind Velocities ◽  
Hourly Distribution

Abstract. The High-Intensity Long-Duration and Continuous AE Activities (HILDCAA) intervals are capable of causing a global disturbance in the terrestrial ionosphere. However, the ionospheric storms' behavior due to these intervals is still not widely understood. In the current study, we seek to comprise the HILDCAA disturbance time effects in the total electron content (TEC) values with respect to the quiet days' pattern by analyzing local time and seasonal dependences, and the influences of the solar wind velocity on a sample of 10 intervals that occurred in the years 2015 and 2016. The main results showed that the hourly distribution of the disturbance TEC may vary substantially between one HILDCAA interval and another. An equinoctial anomaly was found since the equinoxes represent more ionospheric TEC responses than the solstices. Regarding the solar wind velocities, although HILDCAA intervals are associated with high-speed streams, this association does not present a direct relation to TEC disturbance magnitudes at low and equatorial latitudes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document