scholarly journals Application of Bayesian Networks and Information Theory to Estimate the Occurrence of Mid-Air Collisions Based on Accident Precursors

Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Arnaldo Valdés ◽  
Schon Liang Cheng ◽  
Victor Gómez Comendador ◽  
Francisco Sáez Nieto

This paper combines Bayesian networks (BN) and information theory to model the likelihood of severe loss of separation (LOS) near accidents, which are considered mid-air collision (MAC) precursors. BN is used to analyze LOS contributing factors and the multi-dependent relationship of causal factors, while Information Theory is used to identify the LOS precursors that provide the most information. The combination of the two techniques allows us to use data on LOS causes and precursors to define warning scenarios that could forecast a major LOS with severity A or a near accident, and consequently the likelihood of a MAC. The methodology is illustrated with a case study that encompasses the analysis of LOS that have taken place within the Spanish airspace during a period of four years.


2014 ◽  
Vol 641-642 ◽  
pp. 839-847
Author(s):  
Qian Zhang ◽  
Xiu Cheng Guo ◽  
Hao Liang

This article analyzes the limitations of calculating correlation degree based on road sections and built correlation model based on the turning flow of the intersection. In addition to the traditional contributing factors, the model considers two other key factors——turning proportion of intersections and signal phase. Therefore, the proposed model can reflect the spatial and temporal heterogeneity between each turning flows on a road section. A case study to four actual intersections is conducted to test the effectiveness of this model. The results show that the proposed correlation model can better descript the relationship of adjunct intersections and find the critical route for signal coordination.





Author(s):  
Nguyen Thu Ha ◽  
Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen

The retail market in Vietnam continues to grow with the entry of foreign retail brands and the strong rise of domestic businesses in expanding distribution networks and conquering consumer confidence. The appearance of more retail brands has created a fiercely competitive market. Based on the outcomes of previous research results on brand choice intention combined with a customer survey, the paper proposes an analytical framework and scales to examine the relationship of five elements including store image, price perception, risk perception, brand attitudes, brand awareness and retail brand choice intention with a case study of the Hanoi-based Circle K convenience store chain. These five elements are the precondition for retail businesses to develop their brands so as to attract customers.



2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 115
Author(s):  
Taufik Abrain

Several studies have shown that the success of interregional cooperation may be influenced by coordination, commitment, participation, variance of cooperation, structure, format of cooperation, and political will. Nevertheless, these factors do not stand alone since actor relations as a determining aspect is capable of driving those factors effectively. This article aims to examine the aspect of actor relations as a contributing factor that determines successful cooperation among regions. This is a qualitative research with the policy of inter-regional cooperation of the Banjarbakula Program, South Kalimantan Province from February 2017 to February 2018, set as its object of study. The result of this study states that the success of inter-regional cooperation is influenced by the relationship of actors in development factors as suggested by previous experts. The actors involved in the inter-regional cooperation examined in this case had become triggers of coordination, commitment, and participation toward success and failure, as well as the effectiveness of regional cooperation policy. Structural obstacles, ego-centric character, minimum budget availability, and non-visionary planning could be overcome as long as actor relations were properly managed.



Author(s):  
Andrey Varlamov ◽  
Vladimir Rimshin

Considered the issues of interaction between man and nature. Noted that this interaction is fundamental in the existence of modern civilization. The question of possible impact on nature and society with the aim of preserving the existence of human civilization. It is shown that the study of this issue goes towards the crea-tion of models of interaction between nature and man. Determining when building models is information about the interaction of man and nature. Considered information theory from the viewpoint of interaction between nature and man. Noted that currently information theory developed mainly as a mathematical theory. The issues of interaction of man and nature, the availability and existence of information in the material sys-tem is not studied. Indicates the link information with the energy terms control large flows of energy. For con-sideration of the interaction of man and nature proposed to use the theory of degradation. Graphs are pre-sented of the information in the history of human development. Reviewed charts of population growth. As a prediction it is proposed to use the simplest based on the theory of degradation. Consideration of the behav-ior of these dependencies led to the conclusion about the existence of communication energy and information as a feature of the degradation of energy. It justifies the existence of border life ( including humanity) at the point with maximum information. Shows the relationship of energy and time using potential energy.



Author(s):  
Renata Locarno Frota ◽  
Francisco de Assis Souza Filho ◽  
Luis Silva Barros ◽  
Samíria Maria Oliveira Silva ◽  
Victor Costa Porto ◽  
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Author(s):  
Andy H. Wong ◽  
Tae J. Kwon

Winter driving conditions pose a real hazard to road users with increased chance of collisions during inclement weather events. As such, road authorities strive to service the hazardous roads or collision hot spots by increasing road safety, mobility, and accessibility. One measure of a hot spot would be winter collision statistics. Using the ratio of winter collisions (WC) to all collisions, roads that show a high ratio of WC should be given a high priority for further diagnosis and countermeasure selection. This study presents a unique methodological framework that is built on one of the least explored yet most powerful geostatistical techniques, namely, regression kriging (RK). Unlike other variants of kriging, RK uses auxiliary variables to gain a deeper understanding of contributing factors while also utilizing the spatial autocorrelation structure for predicting WC ratios. The applicability and validity of RK for a large-scale hot spot analysis is evaluated using the northeast quarter of the State of Iowa, spanning five winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2017/18. The findings of the case study assessed via three different statistical measures (mean squared error, root mean square error, and root mean squared standardized error) suggest that RK is very effective for modeling WC ratios, thereby further supporting its robustness and feasibility for a statewide implementation.





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